Skip to content

Ad Disclosure

College Football

Monday Down South: Vanderbilt’s Saturday in the sun is Bama’s worst nightmare

Matt Hinton

By Matt Hinton

Published:

Takeaways, trends and technicalities from Week 6 in the SEC. But first:

The ‘Dores are open for business

As a rule, you don’t get many chances in this line of work to write a line like “biggest win in school history,” full stop, without setting off some kind of journalistic alarm. Certainly not when the history in question spans 121 years: There has to be a precedent in there somewhere, right? Even if barely anyone is alive who remembers it? Even if it happened so long ago that the game they were playing barely qualifies as the same sport?

Better make it something like “the biggest win since …” or the “biggest win in modern history …” just to be safe. You know, out of respect for, like, the 1955 Peach Bowl, or the undefeated champions of the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association in 1904.

But then, as a rule, you don’t get many chances to witness a result like Vanderbilt 40, Alabama 35, the kind of generational jolt to the system to which not even the most pedantic archivist would dare to add an asterisk.

There are upsets — 5 of the top 11 teams in the AP poll bit the dust in Week 6 alone, all but 1 of them at the hands of unranked opponents — and there are all-caps, breaking news UPSETS, rare, random glitches that land in the middle of a seemingly ordinary October weekend like a flying saucer and expand the scope of what is still possible on any given Saturday.

Whatever the point spread said (Alabama was a 22.5-point favorite, for the record), the entire country understood at once that the No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide walking into an ambush in Nashville qualified as the latter. Under any circumstances, Vandy over Bama is as historic an upset as you will ever witness.

If anything, “historic” is arguably underselling it. You can quantify the case, up to a point. Prior to Saturday, Vanderbilt was 2-32 in SEC play since the start of the 2020 season, including 10 straight losses; 2-36 against Alabama since 1960, including 23 straight losses; and 0-60 vs. top-5 opponents since the advent of the AP poll in 1936. (Vandy itself has appeared in the poll for a grand total of 6 weeks in the past 65 years, most recently in the final poll of 2014.)

The Commodores’ last head-to-win against the Tide was in 1984, against a Bama team that would go on to finish 5-6; in 8 meetings this century, they’d been outscored by a combined 255-51, topping out at 10 points in the process. In the previous 3 meetings, in 2011, 2017, and 2022, Vandy had managed a solitary field goal. The ‘Dores hadn’t scored 40 points against any SEC opponent since 2018.

Grim as the track record is, though, no single point spread or losing streak has ever quite captured the spirit of entrenched hopelessness Vanderbilt football represents. Er, sorry, should that be represented? Too soon? Within the dog-eat-dog context of the SEC, the idea that the Commodores’ place in the food chain might be up for reevaluation is going to take some getting used to. Even when it’s not technically occupying last place in the standings, in some larger, truer sense, Vandy lives there — the doormat, the laughingstock, the sub-basement dweller who’s been down there so long their eyes can barely adjust to light. No matter how bad it gets for anybody else, it could always be worse: You could be Vandy, right?

Even if it had occurred to anyone that the ‘Dores could be more, nothing about the trajectory of the program under Clark Lea suggested they were on the right track, or close to being on the right track, or getting close to being close. The opposite: They ended 2023 on a 10-game losing streak — classic Vandy— by increasingly wide margins as the year wore on. Near the end, Lea achieved coachspeak immortality when he defended his decision to leave a plainly overmatched quarterback in for the duration of a blowout loss by telling reporters “he gave us a chance to punt.” He embarked on Year 4 squarely on the hot seat, with no momentum and no compelling reason to imagine the best was yet to come.

Even the stadium itself became a kind of metaphor, and not the subtle kind, with home games unfolding against the backdrop of a literal construction site in the south end zone. Just before the season, Nick Saban called it “the only place you’re going to play in the SEC that’s not hard to play,” because the home crowd is often outnumbered by the visitors. (To their credit, the stadium crew somehow had the foresight to have that sound byte cued up and ready to play over the scoreboard as the crowd rushed the field, although up to that point Bama fans did indeed appear to outnumber the locals.) It is one of the last places in the country where anybody, much less Alabama, goes to be surprised.

A triumph, not a trap

In fact, for all the time the Tide spent last week vowing to be on high alert against a “trap game” coming off their epic win over Georgia in Week 5, the most surprising thing about how Saturday’s ambush unfolded in real time was just how straightforward it was. The final score didn’t hide any secrets. Beyond the collective sense of mounting, this-is-happening shock around the country, there were no traps, no gimmicks and no lucky breaks. At the end of the day, there was just Vanderbilt’s offense, led by its 5-foot-nothing, folk-hero quarterback, Diego Pavia, executing the underdog blueprint to near-perfection.

How to spring a landmark upset, in 4 not-so-easy steps:

Step 1: Play from ahead. The Commodores received the opening kickoff, embarked on a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive on their opening possession, and didn’t touch the ball again on offense without the benefit of a lead. Not only did Alabama trail from start to finish, just 2 of its 9 offensive possessions began with the Tide trailing by less than a touchdown. They ended in a 3-and-out and a strip sack, respectively.

Step 2: Hog the ball. Vanderbilt put on a keep-away clinic, racking up a 24-minute advantage in time of possession while Alabama’s offense stood idly by for long stretches. The ‘Dores converted more 3rd downs (12) than any opposing offense against Alabama since at least 2016, 5 of them coming on a marathon, 17-play, 75-yard TD drive in the first half that drained nearly 10 minutes from the clock. (That march was aided by a couple of unforced, drive-extending penalties by Bama’s defense for illegal substitution and roughing the passer.) Vandy ran nearly as many plays before halftime (40) as the Tide ran the entire game (45).

Step 3: Seize your opportunities. The Commodores created their own luck, forcing 2 takeaways and cashing both in for touchdowns. The first, a tip-drill pick-6 on Alabama’s opening possession, extended Vandy’s early cushion to 13-0 midway through the first quarter; the second, a strip sack in the 4th quarter, preserved a precarious, 33-28 lead and set up the offense at midfield for what would turn out to be the clinching touchdown drive. In between, the offense also took advantage of its first and only starting field position in Crimson Tide territory, making it count on a gutsy, 4th-and-1 heave that went up as a prayer and landed as a dagger.

That was Pavia’s only completion of 20+ air yards, per Pro Football Focus, and as of Saturday the first one he’ll be remembered by. But in the flow of the game, it was the only truly risky play he was asked to make, and he delivered in a moment when he could not afford to come up empty.

Step 4: Stick the finish. Vanderbilt’s last possession began with 2:44 on the clock, Vandy nursing a five-point lead, and Alabama still in possession of all three timeouts plus the two-minute warning. A timely stop would have put the ball back in the hands of Jalen Milroe, who when not committing costly turnovers had looked like his usual, Heisman-caliber self, throwing for 310 yards on a robust 12.9 per attempt. Longtime Vandy watchers could see what was coming next: A quick stop, a quick strike, another hero’s exit for Milroe, and the latest in a long line of bitter disappointments for the ‘Dores. Instead, Milroe spent the last few minutes like he’d most of the afternoon, looking on from the sideline while his counterpart commanded the stage. Pavia and the offense came through again, moving the chains not once, not twice, but 3 times in a span of 4 plays to set up the unlikeliest kneel-down of this season or most others.

Amid the pandemonium that ensued, Clark Lea described the scene as “not a finish point, but a hell of an arrival.” We’ll see. It’s Lea’s job to say stuff like that; meanwhile, oddsmakers, whose job is to predict the future accurately enough to make a living off it, set his team as a 2-touchdown underdog for this weekend’s trip to Kentucky, arguably the most winnable of Vanderbilt’s 6 remaining SEC games. They’re betting that the Commodores are one-hit wonders, or at least that some significant share of the public is still willing to take that bet.

The algorithms that drive those decisions are unforgiving, memories of a Week 3 loss at Georgia State are still fresh, and old habits die hard. A Rudy-esque quarterback with a Manziel-ian streak doesn’t change the face that when people look at Vandy, they still see Vandy. If they really have arrived, they still have a lot of convincing left to do.

For at least one Saturday, though, the ‘Dores got to be something else: The upstart, the spoiler, the center of attention. Who knows? Maybe it marks the beginning of a new era of middle-class respectability. Maybe it will turn out to be all they get before the Lea administration unravels on the usual schedule, in an all-too-familiar obscurity. Either way, nobody can ever say again Vandy has never mattered.

Alabama: Tide over?

From the Crimson Tide’s perspective, of course, Saturday was their worst nightmare come to life: Not just a loss, which would be bad enough, but an embarrassing loss, in the kind of game that they’ve been taking for granted for so long that they can’t remember a time when they didn’t. The kind of game, in other words, that Nick Saban and his 14-year, 100-game winning streak vs. unranked opponents would never, could never lose.

We knew this day was coming. Whoever followed the GOAT was always going to have to deal with the onset of post-Saban angst to one extent or another, eventually. The problem for Kalen DeBoer, the thing that sets Bama fans on edge, is that no one bargained for his inevitable “Welcome to Alabama” moment to arrive quite so soon. He aced his first big test, after all, proving in last week’s euphoric win over Georgia that the Tide have not forfeited any of their championship mettle against the kind of team they’re actually going to be facing in the postseason with a championship on the line.

Now what? Five games in, and they’re already biting the dust against Vandy? As in Vandy Vandy? If not for the win over Georgia — if, say, the Bulldogs’ frenzied comeback in the 4th quarter of that game had held up — the situation would be a full-blown panic, with DeBoer potentially facing down the prospect of a hot seat barely halfway through his debut season. As it stands, all of the goodwill he earned against the Dawgs has already been spent down, with interest.

Given the mixed signals (not to mention a limited word count here, give me a break), I’m just as reluctant to assign any larger meaning about what a bewildering loss means for Alabama’s future as I am about what an unprecedented win means for Vanderbilt’s. We have a lot more information about what this team is capable of than its face-plant in Nashville. The big takeaway a week ago was that the Tide still have the dudes to stack up blue-chip for blue-chip with anyone in the country on a massive national stage, and quite possibly the most valuable dude in the college game in Jalen Milroe. The big takeaway this week is that they are not a week-in, week-out machine that can be trusted to never play down to the competition.

Who does that sound like? Well, just about any other high-upside, high-variance contender for a Playoff slot, which like it or not is exactly what this outfit now is until further notice. All of their goals are still in front of them, including a shot at the SEC championship and the automatic first-round bye that comes with it. But the margin for error is too slim now to come down with another team-wide case of vertigo.

Superlatives

The week’s best individual performances.

1. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia. Pavia was no secret, but he was a revelation against Alabama, delivering the most memorable individual performance by a Vandy quarterback in ages. (Ever? Under the circumstances, this seems like another situation where best ever is not too farfetched.) Although he only put the ball in the air 20 times, he made them count, averaging 12.6 yards per attempt with 13 first downs and 2 touchdowns on 16 completions. His 95.9 Total QBR rating ranked No. 2 nationally among all Week 6 starters; his 218.8 passer rating matched the best individual rating against Alabama since at least 2016; and he capped the evening in a high-energy postgame interview in which he credited his success to God and dropped a nationally-televised f-bomb in a span of about 5 seconds. Even Manziel didn’t go from divine to profane that fast.

2. Ole Miss DL Walter Nolen. The biggest fish in Ole Miss’ touted transfer class, Nolen turned in his best game as a Rebel against South Carolina, generating 7 QB pressures, 3 tackles for loss and 3 sacks in a 27-3 win — the first time Ole Miss has held an SEC opponent out of the end zone on Lane Kiffin’s watch.

Ole Miss prioritized beefing up its defensive front via the portal, with stellar results to date. For the season, the Rebels rank No. 1 nationally in run defense, yards per carry allowed, sacks and tackles for loss.

3. Texas A&M QB Conner Weigman. So much for a QB controversy in College Station. After a 3-game absence due to an injured shoulder, Weigman returned to the starting lineup against Missouri looking like a new man, finishing 18-for-22 for 276 yards and a 93.6 QBR in a 41-10 blowout. That’s the Weigman the Aggies were hoping to see prior to his Week 1 meltdown against Notre Dame, and if it’s the version they get the rest of the year they belong in the CFP conversation. Still, given that he’s yet to play more than four consecutive games in his career, that’s a very big if.

4. Texas A&M CB Will Lee III. On the defensive side, “The Blanket” lived up to his name, breaking up 2 passes while holding Mizzou receivers without a reception on 6 targets, per PFF. The only blemish on his ledger: A defensive pass interference penalty that negated a filthy 1-handed interception in the first half.

5. Arkansas WR Andrew Armstrong. Armstrong was the best player on the field in the Razorbacks’ 19-14 upset over Tennessee, accounting for 132 yards on 9 catches, 3 of them contested, per PFF. That marked his 3rd 100-yard outing in 5 games this season after hitting triple digits just once in 2023.

Honorable Mention: Texas A&M RB Le’Veon Moss, who went off for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing on just 12 carries against Missouri. …Texas A&M edge rusher Nic Scourton, who had a hand in 3 TFLs on a dominant afternoon for the A&M defense. … Arkansas edge rusher Landon Jackson, who had 7 QB pressures and 1 sack in the Razorbacks’ win over Tennessee. … Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson, who went over the century mark for the 4th time in 5 games with a 140-yard, 2-touchdown effort against the Hogs. … Georgia RB Trevor Etienne, who accounted for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Bulldogs’ win over Auburn. … Auburn edge rusher Keldric Faulk, whose 7 tackles against UGA included a pair of sacks. … And Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers, whose 6 receptions against Alabama netted 113 yards and 6 first downs.

–     –     –
The scoring system for players honored in Superlatives awards 8 points for the week’s top player, 6 for 2nd, 5 for 3rd, 4 for 4th, 3 for 5th, and 1 for honorable mention, because how honorable is it really if it doesn’t come with any points? Standings are updated weekly with the top 10 players for the season to date.

Catch of the Year of the Week

https://twitter.com/AlabamaFTBL/status/1842700380125491483/

SEC Power Rankings

Updating the food chain.

1. Texas (5-0). Longhorns won the bloodiest weekend of the season by sitting it out. The spoils of inactivity: The top spot in both major polls, and a target squarely on their back this week against Oklahoma.
– – –
(LW: 2⬆)

2. Georgia (4-1). I feel like I have watched the Dawgs play the exact same game they played in their 31-13 win over Auburn so many times at this point that Kirby Smart may as well be running a simulation.
– – –
(LW: 3⬆)

3. Alabama (411). I’m not abandoning ship over 1 loss, even one as bad as the Tide’s flop at Vandy, but the defense is a legitimate concern. Going back to the wild second half against Georgia, Bama has allowed 8 touchdowns and 2 field goals on its past 15 defensive possessions.
– – –
(LW: 1⬇)

4. Ole Miss (5-1). Star wideout Tre Harris was “not close” to returning to the Rebels’ win over South Carolina after leaving the game with an ankle injury. His status for this weekend’s trip to LSU might be the biggest question mark in a very big game for CFP positioning.
– – –
(LW: 7⬆)

5. Texas A&M (511). In a performance I definitely did not see coming, the Aggies dominated in all phases against Mizzou, leading by as much as 34-0 before allowing the Tigers to tack on 10 points in garbage time. Restraint is advised, but it’s not out of the question that A&M (now 3-0 in SEC play) could be favored in each of its next 5 games heading into the finale against Texas.
– – –
(LW: 8⬆)

6. LSU (4-1). LSU-Ole Miss is not necessarily a Playoff elimination game, but with a loss apiece already, the loser is probably down to its last strike. .
– – –
(LW: 6⬌)

7. Tennessee (4-1). Although it didn’t work out on the other end, I was not opposed to Tennessee’s decision to let Arkansas score the go-ahead touchdown with a little over a minute to go to preserve time (and timeouts) for the offense to respond. But I had to laugh at Vols’ DB Jakobe Thomas (No. 9 below), who made just enough of an effort to put himself in position to make the tackle on Arkansas QB Malachi Singleton before he suddenly remembered the assignment:

Olé! At least the defender who dove futilely at Singleton’s feet left some room for plausible deniability.
– – –
(LW: 4⬇)

8. Oklahoma (4-1). The Sooners have won 5 of the past 6 against Texas, in all of which the Longhorns came in as a ranked team.

– – –
(LW: 9⬆)

9. Missouri (4-1). Have the Tigers been exposed as frauds? We’ll see how the rest of the season plays out. But they have a lot of work to do to convince anybody they’re Playoff material and only a couple opportunities left against plus competition to do it.
– – –
(LW: 5⬇)

10. Vanderbilt (3-2). Whatever comes next, “Vandy’s f***ing TURNT” is about as far as it gets from “he gave us a chance to punt.”
– – –
(LW: 13⬆)

11. Arkansas (4-2). The Razorbacks’ 19-14 upset over Tennessee turned down the temperature significantly on coach Sam Pittman heading into an open date, but that only reinforces my read on the Hogs as the league’s true chaos team, capable of anything in any direction on any given Saturday. Three of the next 4 on the other side of the bye are against LSU, Ole Miss and Texas, all in Fayetteville.
– – –
(LW: 12⬆)

12. Florida (3-2). The Gators opened as 15.5-point underdogs (via FanDuel Sportsbook) at Tennessee, which if it actually plays out that way would represent a major aberration in the series. For one thing, Florida has won 17 of the past 19 against the Vols; for another, Tennessee hasn’t beaten Florida by as many as 15 points since a 31-14 win in 1992.

– – –
(LW: 14⬆)

13. South Carolina (3-2). Carolina draws the unenviable assignment of traveling to Tuscaloosa immediately following Alabama’s most embarrassing loss in years. If the Tide come out breathing fire, there’s not a whole lot the Gamecocks figure to be able to do about it.
– – –
(LW: 10⬇)

14. Kentucky (3-2). The Wildcats are coming off an open date with a manageable stretch ahead against Vanderbilt, Florida and Auburn that will go a long way toward defining their season. They probably need to take at least 2 out of 3 to keep their 8-year bowl streak alive.
– – –
(LW: 11⬇)

15. Auburn (2-4). I highly doubt it would have made any difference in the outcome against Georgia, but if you were wondering what was up on the botched 4th-and-1 attempt in the 4th quarter that resulted in Hugh Freeze blowing a gasket at his quarterback, Freeze told reporters after the game that Payton Thorne changed the play from a “dive left” to Jarquez Hunter to a zone read that was easily stuffed in the backfield. “Yeah, he absolutely didn’t go with what we had called,” Freeze said.
– – –
(LW: 15⬌)

16. Mississippi State (1-4). Outgunned and stuck with a true freshman quarterback, the Bulldogs are in survival mode from here on out. The last time they went winless in SEC play: 2002, under coach Jackie Sherrill.
– – –
(LW: 16⬌)

Moment of Zen of the Week

https://twitter.com/ArtButSports/status/1842726105008255444

• • •

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.

You might also like...

2025 RANKINGS

presented by rankings