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Auburn-Georgia figures to be one of the better matchups the SEC Championship Game has had in a number of years. It is the first matchup between AP Top 10 teams that we’ve had since 2013 and the third such matchup in the last eight years.
Heading into today’s conference title game, here are some numbers that are worth following throughout the day.
Magic number is 20
Scoring 20 points in this game doesn’t guarantee a victory. But history says failing to reach the 20-point mark guarantees a loss.
In the 25 SEC Championship games played, 15 times a team has been held under 20 points. Those teams went 0-15.
Rematch doesn’t equal revenge
This will be the seventh time the SEC Championship Game will have a rematch of a regular-season meeting. This is the first such matchup since 2010, when Auburn and South Carolina met.
In those previous six SEC title games, the team that won the regular-season matchup is 5-1. The one exception occurred in 2001, when LSU lost to Tennessee in the regular season but came back to win its first SEC Championship Game.
For those that do not remember, Auburn defeated Georgia just three weeks ago, 40-17.
Another first-time matchup in title game
The most common matchup in the SEC Championship Game has obviously been Florida vs. Alabama. These two teams have met nine times, including the last two matchups.
This year’s Auburn-Georgia matchup, despite the long history of the rivalry (Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry), will be the first time these teams will meet in the SEC Championship Game.
It is the also the 13th new matchup in the SEC Championship Game, meaning exactly half of the conference title games have been new matchups.
Naturally, because of the conference’s expansion in 2012, the opportunity for new matchups has increased. Four of the last six SEC Championship Game meetings have been new matchups.
Don’t look for an aerial show
Recently, this game has been decided by which team can run the ball (more on that later). The days of Coach Spurrier’s Fun-n-Gun offense have disappeared when it comes to winning this game.
Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham and Georgia’s Jake Fromm had one 300-yard passing game each this season, but Stidham’s came against an FCS opponent (Mercer) while Fromm had his against Missouri, a team that had the second-worst pass defense in the SEC.
We haven’t seen a 300-yard passer in the SEC Championship Game since 2010, when Auburn’s Cam Newton threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns in a 56-17 win over South Carolina.
Want to win? Run the ball
Another reason you may not see the ball in the air much this Saturday is the fact these teams are among the best in the SEC in rushing. Georgia leads the SEC (265.7 YPG), and only Mississippi State ran the ball more times in the SEC than Auburn (47.3 attempts per game).
Recent history has shown that the team that runs the ball best will win. The last 12 winners in the SEC Championship Game outgained the losing team on the ground.
And over the last eight years, the winning teams have combined for 28 rushing touchdowns. The losing team? 3.
Run the ball, Part II
Georgia could have a pair of 1,000-yard rushers by the time the game ends. Nick Chubb is already over the mark, with 1,098 yards, while teammate Sony Michel needs 97 yards to reach the mark.
But it is Auburn that has the conference’s leading rusher in Kerryon Johnson, who is averaging 127.6 YPG.
The last time the SEC champion had the conference’s leading rusher was 2013, when Auburn’s Tre Mason led the SEC with 129.7 YPG.
Get the halftime lead
Having the lead at halftime is a big key in winning the SEC Championship Game. Teams that have a halftime lead are 21-4 all-time. Amazingly, there has never been a tie at the half.
The last time a team rallied from a halftime deficit to win the SEC Championship was 2011, when No. 1 LSU trailed Georgia 10-7 at the half but outscored the Bulldogs 35-0 in the second half.
Higher-ranked teams have the edge
All of the previous 25 SEC Championship games have featured a matchup between ranked opponents. And in those games, the higher-ranked team has gone 19-6.
The higher-ranked team this year? Auburn, at No. 4 in the latest AP Poll (No. 2 in the latest CFP rankings).
Another note on ranked teams in this game. The last 11 SEC Championship games were won by a team ranked in the AP’s Top 5. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 6 in both the AP Poll and College Football Playoff rankings.
The good news for Georgia fans: the last time a team outside the Top 5 won this game was 2005. That year, No. 13 Georgia upset No. 3 LSU, 34-14.
Finally, a top-10 matchup
Surprisingly, when you consider how much the SEC has dominated college football over the last 10-15 years, this will be just the ninth matchup in the SEC Championship Game that features both teams ranked in the AP Top 10, and the first such matchup in four years.
Which team has the edge in those Top-10 matchups? Neither. The higher-ranked team is just 4-4 in those games.
Will this game be close?
And finally, the question that probably will be asked most by fans of the SEC: Can we have a close conference championship game?
If you want to use the excuse that the reason for these recent blowouts has to do with how much Alabama has dominated college football, that’s fine. But these are still the numbers:
The last three years, the average margin of victory has been 27 points.
Only one of the last nine SEC Championship games have been decided by less than a touchdown (2012, Alabama defeated Georgia 32-28).
Seventeen of the last 19 SEC Championship games have been decided by 10 points or more.
With two Top-10 teams in this year’s game, fans can hope that translates into a close game.
On the other hand, three weeks ago when these teams met, it ended up a 23-point Auburn victory.
Michael covers SEC football for Saturday Down South.
