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Offseason questions? No preseason No. 1 ranking? This is Georgia’s ideal championship preamble
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In the last 20 years, the No. 1 team in the preseason AP Poll won just 1 national title. People don’t talk about that enough.
Georgia fans know all too well about that, and not just because their Bulldogs were on the losing end of that lone instance of the preseason No. 1 winning it all (2017 Alabama). But they also know that pain because in each of the last 2 seasons, UGA was the No. 1 team in the preseason AP Poll. And yet, each of those last 2 seasons ended without a trip to the Playoff semifinals. Including 2022 preseason AP No. 1 Alabama, that marked the 3rd consecutive year that happened.
In all likelihood, UGA won’t be the No. 1 team in the preseason AP Poll come April. That should be considered a positive update, especially when you realize that teams ranked 2-5 in the preseason AP Poll won 15 titles in that stretch.
Consider that just another reason why 2025 has more of the ideal Georgia championship preamble than the previous 2 years. Shoot, I don’t have to remind UGA fans about that No. 1 preseason ranking in 2008, which also failed to yield a title. Georgia is responsible for 3 of those 19 title whiffs as a preseason AP No. 1 team in the last 20 years … and 2 of those 15 titles by teams with a preseason 2-5 ranking.
Call me crazy, but Kirby Smart would prefer it this way. There’s a chance that for just the 2nd time since Georgia played for a title in 2017, UGA will start outside the top 4 in the AP Poll. When was the only other time that happened? The 2021 season, AKA when Georgia won its first national title in 41 years.
Ah, I know what you’re saying.
“Preseason polls don’t matter. Shoot, preseason expectations don’t matter, either.”
Eh, I’ll agree to disagree with that to a certain extent. In a sport with an 8-month offseason, preseason expectations in college football are unique. I’ll save you the rant on how preseason rankings set expectations, drive conversation, increase ticket sales, help recruiting, etc. Just ask yourself this — if preseason expectations didn’t matter at a place like Georgia, why did Nolan Smith admit that he made up the “Georgia is going 7-5” prediction ahead of 2022?
Smith knew as well as anyone. When you’ve been at the top of the mountain like Georgia, you need a little bit of that extra juice … even if it’s made up. It wasn’t enough that people could point to Georgia setting an NFL Draft record with 15 players selected in 2022. They needed to manufacture some doubt.
(Externally, Georgia players actually had more doubt than they cared to admit heading into 2022 because they were only No. 3 in the preseason AP Poll and Alabama was picked to win the SEC).
You don’t necessarily need to manufacture doubt about Georgia’s 2025 outlook. You could point to the uncertainty at quarterback, where Gunner Stockton is set to take over following the disappointing season from Carson Beck, who left for Miami (FL). As much as we heard about Stockton’s leadership and internal buy-in leading up to the Playoff, he’s still someone who had his only meaningful college reps come against the 2 of the 3 best pass defenses in the sport (Texas and Notre Dame).
Much of Stockton’s wait-and-see external outlook is tied to his pass catchers. Are we certain that Georgia’s biggest 2024 weakness will turn into an inevitable strength in 2025? Nobody in the country dropped more passes than Georgia — you heard about that on every broadcast — and the Dawgs went to the portal (again) to address that with splashy additions of Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas. Both should be upgrades, but that’s not saying much. UGA being jaded by past transfer receivers will create skepticism there, especially with Smart’s decision to retain Mike Bobo after a subpar offensive season.
The lack of imminent promise in the passing game will be the biggest preseason detractor, especially after UGA was unable to impose its will in the ground game. Put that on injuries or poor performance. Whatever the case, that unit is no longer as “set it and forget it” as Georgia had in previous years.
The irony is that when the NFL Draft rolls around, there’s a chance that 3 UGA defensive players will come off the board in the 1st round (Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams and Malaki Starks). That unit might lack national household names — CJ Allen is the most likely preseason first-team All-SEC guy — and yet, it’d be stunning if Georgia failed to have a top-10 defense after Smart’s unit finished No. 23 in scoring and No. 30 in yards/play allowed. Smart has never had consecutive seasons of finishing outside the top 10 in scoring defense.
At the same time, you’d be foolish to suggest that UGA’s defense is as proven as Texas’s, and it doesn’t have a position group with multiple preseason All-Americans like Clemson’s defensive line. We’ve also been programmed to ignore that, and with good reason.
When Georgia gave us arguably the best defense in college football history en route to a title in 2021, how many guys on that unit were preseason first-team or second-team All-SEC? One. Jordan Davis. It’s easy to forget how much that unit was reliant on promising, but unproven, guys like Jalen Carter, Travon Walker and Nolan Smith. By season’s end, 7 Georgia defensive players earned first- or second-team All-SEC honors.
Nobody is saying that should be the expectation. It is, however, a reminder that Smart’s track record for recruiting and developing elite talent is second to none. We can dig into whether or not the fluidity of the transfer portal has prevented Georgia from stockpiling depth like it could 3-4 years ago, but we’re going to need to see a much lower floor from Georgia to discount it from preseason national title consideration.
UGA still sits at No. 3 in the way-too-early preseason national title odds after a roller coaster season. But it’s safe to assume that with Texas and Ohio State opening the season against one another after their epic Playoff semifinal clash, the Dawgs aren’t going to be the first there or in the preseason poll.
Something tells me Smart will still sleep just fine this offseason.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
