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They’re all relevant.
OK, so maybe not everyone is relevant in the SEC race, but we’ve got 6 SEC games in Week 11, and all of them feature at least 1 team with 2 or fewer conference losses. That’s relevant when there are no more SEC teams who are unbeaten in conference play.
So yeah, every single Week 11 game technically has “SEC Championship implications.” How about that?
How about some early thoughts on all of those Week 11 games?
Florida vs. No. 5 Texas — If it’s your thing, say a prayer for Aidan Warner
I’m expecting the preferred walk-on/Yale transfer to be Florida’s starter following what Billy Napier called a “significant” hamstring injury for DJ Lagway. That would mean Warner will be the QB1 on the road against a Texas defense that ranks:
- No. 1 in FBS in yards/play allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in passing yards/game allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in passing TDs allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in yards/pass allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in QB rating allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in 10-yard pass plays allowed
- No. 1 in FBS in 20-yard pass plays allowed
- No. 2 in FBS in scoring defense
- No. 2 in FBS in red-zone TDs allowed
Oh, and did I mention that Texas is coming off a bye week? That’s a tall ask of anyone, much less a redshirt freshman who wasn’t even a top-2,000 recruit when he signed to go to Yale. Now, in Warner’s defense, he earned the 3rd-string job by beating out Colorado State transfer Clay Mullen. Still, though. He’s facing one of the top defenses in America, and he could be doing so without some elite playmakers after Florida was without top receiver Tre Wilson and top tailback Montrell Johnson Jr. against Georgia. That’s as daunting of a task as it gets.
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 16 Ole Miss — Now would be a good time for Carson Beck to revert to his 2023 self
Like, the guy who only threw 6 interceptions in 14 games of action. Not the guy who threw 6 interceptions in his last 8 quarters of football. You remember him. He was a guy who was lethal throwing between the hashes and he earned preseason All-America honors as the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Whatever happened to Beck reading defenses and being on the same page with his receivers? Who knows.
All we know is that Beck is facing an Ole Miss defense that has been relentless. Pete Golding’s unit ranks No. 1 in America in sacks (41) and it has 17 more tackles for loss (!) than any team in FBS. Lane Kiffin might not be having the year that many expected, but his high-profile additions on the defensive front have been the clear strength of his team. If Beck has yet another dud, Georgia could leave Oxford with loss No. 2 and a virtually non-existent path to Atlanta.
South Carolina vs. No. 24 Vanderbilt — Vandy has covered every spread vs. Core 4 teams by a country mile
We should talk about that more. That’s 6 instances in which Vandy played against a Core 4 team, and it was at least a 6.5-point underdog in all of them. Not only did Vandy cover all of those spreads with ease, but it went 4-2 overall in those games with 2 losses coming by 3 points apiece (2OT at Mizzou, 3-point loss vs. Texas).
- vs. Virginia Tech (13.5-point underdog): W, 34-27 OT
- at Mizzou (18-point underdog): L, 30-27 2OT
- vs. Alabama (22.5-point underdog): W, 40-35
- at Kentucky (12.5-point underdog): W, 20-13
- vs. Texas (-16.5-point underdog): L, 27-24
- at Auburn (6.5-point underdog): W, 17-7
So in all of those games, Vandy covered by at least 13 points. What does that mean for Saturday? South Carolina being a 3.5-point favorite suggests Vandy will win by double digits.
That’s the trend. Of course, that trend can come to a screeching halt if LaNorris Sellers shakes off defenders like rag dolls as he did against Texas A&M. And if a potentially hobbled Diego Pavia can’t escape that South Carolina pass rush, the Gamecocks will continue to be a thorn in the side of ranked SEC teams. Go figure that we’re talking about Vandy being that ranked team as we head into the second weekend of November.
Mississippi State vs. No. 7 Tennessee — The Vols’ passing offense has its best matchup since Kent State
And what happened against Kent State? Nico Iamaleava led the Vols to a 65-0 lead at halftime. Simpler times, those were. In the 5 games since then, Tennessee has a total of 26 first-half points, 19 of which came in the Oklahoma game on Sept. 21 … and 2 of them came via a safety that night. The good news for Iamaleava and the passing offense was that against Kentucky, it looked better than it has in the last month-plus. The bad news for the Tennessee passing offense was that it continued to struggle with the deep-ball connection and Iamaleava’s longest completion of the night was a 31-yard pass to tight end Miles Kitselman that traveled 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on the first Tennessee drive.
But dare I say, Mississippi State’s pass defense should be exactly what the doctor ordered. It ranks in the bottom 10 in FBS in opposing QB rating, and it allows roughly 3.5 pass plays of 20 yards/game (that number jumps to 5.4/game in SEC play). With Tennessee getting healthier at receiver, one would think that should benefit Iamaleava and any sort of pre-Georgia trap game will be avoided.
No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 14 LSU — What if I told you this was a monumental regular season game in the 12-team Playoff era?
Hey, I was told that November games wouldn’t matter as much in the 12-team Playoff era. Instead, we’re getting a de-facto elimination game for a pair of 2-loss teams. I suppose LSU would still be alive for the SEC Championship with a loss, but that path would be all but impossible as a 2-loss team with losing head-to-head tiebreakers against A&M and Alabama. Hence, the significance of Saturday night in Death Valley. The winner should be favored in each of its last 3 games, which makes a 10-2 at-large path seem like the most likely scenario.
It also feels like the type of game that’ll define the offseason that awaits the losing coach. They’ll get negative national attention as a result of having 3 losses and missing out on the 12-team Playoff. People will wonder if they’re cut out for the job they have. They’ll question if they’ll ever be able to live up to the program standard or if they’ll just be in that Tier 2 of teams in the sport. That’s reality. I’d say that qualifies as “monumental.”
Oklahoma vs. Mizzou — A healthy and effective Brady Cook is the only way Mizzou prevails
I’m not here to say that Cook will or won’t be healthy. I won’t pretend to know that if and when he takes the field on Saturday. But I also won’t pretend like Drew Pyne has a chance of moving the ball downfield against the Oklahoma defense, who has been much better than what its 1-4 SEC record would indicate. And for what it’s worth, I’m not even saying it’s as simple as whether or not Cook is healthy. A healthy Cook could struggle against an OU defense that ranks No. 27 in FBS in yards/play allowed.
Shoot, Cook’s best game against an actual defense might’ve been the Vandy win, which was when he and the Mizzou offense arguably took the most criticism. It’s been a weird year, to say the least. Perhaps a bye week will be exactly what Cook and Mizzou needed heading into the home stretch. Alternatively, Mizzou could be in for a painful November, beginning on Saturday.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
