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I’d love to go back to 2019 and tell somehow about how low the bar would be for LSU’s defense in the 2020s. Knowing what we know now, it’d be a depressing conversation to have.
After all, LSU once led the conversation of “DBU” and it was a lock to boast one of the nation’s better defenses. From 2008-17, it had 8 units that finished in the top 25 in FBS in scoring defense. From 2000-19, all but 1 LSU defense finished inside the top 40 in FBS in that stat. It was the 2008 squad that finished 56th in FBS in scoring defense after winning a national title the previous season.
To say that LSU’s defensive bar has been lowered in the 2020s would be like saying Ed Orgeron has a noticeable accent.
In the 2020s, here are all the things that LSU’s defense has failed to do:
- A) Finish in the top 90 in FBS in 20-yard pass plays allowed
- B) Finish in the top 50 in FBS in yards/play allowed
- C) Produce multiple top-60 FBS scoring defense units
- D) Win a season opener
- E) All the above
It’s “E.” It’s always “E.”
Yeah, that bar is on the floor. To clear it Sunday night against USC won’t be an easy task considering that LSU will be looking to end its stunning season-opener losing streak — Joe Burrow was the last LSU QB to win an opener — against Lincoln Riley. As in, the guy who had a top-8 scoring offense in each of his 7 seasons as a head coach.
Throw out whatever defensive standard LSU was held to before the 2020s. LSU needs a new, more manageable bar to clear.
So what does that look like?
For starters, LSU’s defense celebrating a season-opening win would be a revelation. Four consecutive season-opening losses are hard to fathom. In LSU’s slight defense, all of those came against Power 5 teams. Not in LSU’s defense, the pass defense numbers in those games were horrendous:
- 2020 — 623 passing yards, 10.4 yards/attempt, 5 passing TDs vs. Mississippi State
- 2021 — 260 yards, 16.3 yards/attempt, 3 passing TDs vs. UCLA
- 2022 — 260 passing yards, 7.9 yards/attempt, 2 passing TDs vs. FSU
- 2023 — 359 passing yards, 11.2 yards/attempt, 4 passing TDs vs. FSU
- 2024 — TBD vs. USC
It’s not hard to imagine a world in which new USC starter Miller Moss joins that category. The LSU spring game didn’t exactly dispel the notion that a new staff had found the cure for the woes in the secondary. Of course, that was 4 months ago. Things can change quickly in a 4-month stretch. For example, in a 4-month stretch, Matt House went from being in good standing as LSU’s DC after a promising 2022 season to being so historically ineffective that it was fair to wonder if he was worse than the infamous 2020 Bo Pelini experiment.
(For me, the greatest statistical marvel in human history was Pelini having a secondary with Derek Stingley Jr. and Eli Ricks that finished dead last in FBS against the pass. They make documentaries about stuff like that.)
New DC Blake Baker has to figure out those answers on the back end or else the highest-paid DC in America also will see how quickly his future can change in a 4-month stretch. Holding Moss to less than 300 yards might not be realistic, especially if USC’s game plan is to hit 40 passes. For all we know, that would be a sign that LSU’s offense is clicking and USC is in catch-up mode all night.
But the most alarming thing with LSU’s defense is the chunk plays. At the very least, keeping Moss below 8.4 yards/pass attempt would feel like a small victory. Last year, LSU only held 3 of its 10 Power 5 opponents below that mark. A performance in which LSU only allows 1 or 2 passing plays of 20 yards would be a welcome sight after allowing an average of 4 per contest last year (LSU’s 51 20-yard pass plays allowed ranked No. 121 out of 133 in FBS). USC receiver Zachariah Branch is plenty capable of spoiling that by himself. LSU fans can probably close their eyes and envision Major Burns chasing him into the end zone.
Besides that, what else can LSU strive for? How about keeping USC to less than 6.0 yards/play? Last year, that was also something that LSU accomplished in just 3 of its 10 games against Power 5 competition (95 FBS defenses allowed fewer than 6.0 yards/play … and LSU obviously wasn’t one of them).
There’s something else that might seem obvious — holding USC to less than 30 points would be a key early benchmark. Riley hit 30 points in 77 of his 92 games (84%) as an FBS head coach. LSU held 2 of its 10 Power 5 foes to less than 30 points last year, and that happened against Mississippi State (No. 107 scoring offense) and Auburn (No. 72 scoring offense). The last time that LSU faced a Power 5 offense that finished in the top 70 in scoring and held it to less than 30 points was Nov. 12, 2022, AKA “Harold Perkins Day” in the state of Arkansas.
It shouldn’t take Perkins playing at an All-Universe level for LSU to accomplish the simple task of holding a decent offense to less than 30 points. At the same time, Perkins playing at an All-American level in Baker’s defense would certainly go a long way in making that happen. His usage will be heavily dissected in the opener, especially if LSU’s defense struggles to generate pressure and Perkins only gets 7 pass-rushing snaps like he did last year against FSU (he played 58 defensive snaps and inexplicably spent 28 of them in coverage).
For LSU, this is all about avoiding deja vu, and not just with Perkins’ usage. Baker is trying to do what none of the previous 3 LSU defensive coordinators could. That is, don’t lead a unit that’s a punching bag from Week 1 on (the 2022 LSU defense with House wasn’t an instant punching bag, but his 2023 unit certainly took a beating).
At this point, that’s all LSU fans can ask for. To have a defense that at least flirts with mediocrity would be a major step up from what most of the 2020s have been. Last year, LSU’s defense didn’t even introduce itself to mediocrity. It tripped over its own shoes and sprinted in the other direction. This year, a love-hate relationship would be a sign of progress.
That starts on Sunday night in Vegas, where predicting imminent success for the LSU defense still feels like a massive roll of the dice.
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Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
