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O’Gara: What CJ Baxter’s season-ending injury means for Texas, the SEC and the Playoff picture
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On more places than I could count, I banged the drum for Texas to get off to a 12-0 start with CJ Baxter winning the SEC rushing title in 2024. Like, as recently as Tuesday on The Saturday Down South Podcast, I said that very thing.
And in a matter of hours, one of those things became an impossibility.
Anwar Richardson reported that Baxter suffered a tear of his LCL and PCL on Tuesday and that he would miss the season.
I just learned Texas running back CJ Baxter is expected to miss the season after tearing his LCL/PCL during practice on Tuesday. Baxter’s injury will require surgery and the recovery time is between six to nine months. pic.twitter.com/LDlWSbBdfQ
— Anwar Richardson (@AnwarRichardson) August 7, 2024
Brutal. A fall camp casualty if there ever was one.
It’s unfortunate for Baxter, who looked like Texas’ RB1 as a true freshman but then dealt with injuries and gave way to Jonathon Brooks … only to then regain RB1 duties after a season-ending injury to Brooks. We watched an 18-year-old Baxter rack up 103 scrimmage yards in a Playoff game. We also watched him plow through Texas’ defense in an impressive spring game showing that only added to the hype for the second-year player.
Now, though, the hype is gone and the questions are here: Can Texas still get off to a Playoff-worthy start and compete for a national championship?
The short answer to that question is “yes.” If you were among the group who praised Baxter heading into 2024, you likely didn’t do so simply because he was a former 5-star recruit. Steve Sarkisian’s recent track record with running backs is second to none. In 3 of the past 4 years, the top running back selected in the NFL Draft came straight from Sarkisian’s offense. That was Alabama’s Najee Harris in 2021, Texas’ Bijan Robinson in 2023 and most recently, the aforementioned Brooks in 2024.
That’s significant because those running backs have different skill sets, yet all of them emerged as bona fide early-round prospects after playing in Sarkisian’s offense (I should also note that Roschon Johnson was a backup and he was still a 4th-round pick by the Chicago Bears in 2023). For all we know, Jaydon Blue is next. After all, Blue had just as many carries as Baxter in that Playoff game (9), and he had 11 to 13 touches in each of those 4 games after Brooks went down.
I pegged Baxter as the SEC’s leading rusher knowing that Blue would have a significant role in Sarkisian’s offense. Blue’s impact, in my opinion, was going to add to Baxter’s impact instead of taking something away from it.
Blue already is a more effective player than Baxter in the passing game, both as a protector and as a route-runner. Sarkisian even lined him up in pass-catcher spots (14 snaps in the slot and 9 out wide) on occasion. There were big plans for Blue even with a healthy Baxter.
Now, though? Blue could be closer to Robinson/Harris in terms of workload. That means 21 to 23 touches per game. It also means keeping him upright is now essential. Tre Wisner will step into a more prominent role after he was almost exclusively on special teams while true freshmen Jerrick Gibson and Christian Clark will be tasked with growing up in a hurry.
The good news for all of those backs — and perhaps the bad news for those tackling those backs — is that Texas returns 4 of 5 offensive line starters from a group that was No. 13 in FBS in yards/play.
Texas is still going to be a nightmare for SEC defenses to slow down. Quinn Ewers was always going to command a certain amount of attention, especially if a new-look group of pass-catchers can prevent a significant regression. That’s not a given. AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy developed into one of the best receiver duos in America before leaving for the NFL, but Sarkisian called this the deepest group he’s had.
The other good news for Texas is that the schedule didn’t change with Baxter’s injury. Texas still has just 1 SEC road game until mid-November, and it’s at Vanderbilt. It’s a relatively forgiving slate, though nothing is forgiving about that Georgia matchup. Anyone who hands the Dawgs their first regular-season loss since 2020 will need an all-hands-on-deck effort. The aforementioned 12-0 prediction would’ve felt a lot better if a healthy Baxter was out there for games like that and the Oklahoma showdown (where Ewers struggled against Brent Venables’ defense) instead of 4 backs with a combined 193 offensive snaps at the FBS level.
Baxter was the No. 1 running back recruit in the 2023 class. Take the “is Texas SEC-ready” questions for what they are after a 12-win season, but Baxter and his ability to get yards after contact was a big part of why that wasn’t such a major unknown entering 2024.
What’s unknown is if Baxter’s early loss in fall camp will be the first sign that this isn’t Texas’ year. There’s room for interpretation of what that means. Missing the Playoff would be a major disappointment. It would retroactively halt all of those “Texas is back” takes and instead make them a punching bag again.
Do I believe Baxter’s absence will swing the Longhorns’ year that dramatically? No, but in this expanded Playoff, health will become an even bigger factor than in the 4-team era. Injury luck matters. There’s nothing lucky about watching a potential leading rusher in the SEC go down in the first week in August.
If Texas is indeed on the outside looking in of the national title picture in late-December, Baxter’s injury will at least be part of that conversation. Texas’ climb will be a steeper one without Baxter.
But a roadblock to Atlanta and beyond? If Texas is back to national relevance, that won’t be the case.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
