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Ole Miss enters the 2016 season with the SEC’s best quarterback.
Chad Kelly picked up where predecessor Bo Wallace left off, and then some.
As a junior Kelly broke Wallace’s school-record for completions in a season (298). He threw for 4,042 yards, most in Rebels’ history and third-most in SEC history. And he tossed 31 touchdown passes, which led the SEC and tied Eli Manning for the school’s single-season record.
He also led the SEC in average passing yards per game (310.9), total offense per game (349.4), and points responsible for (246).
In his senior year, he has the chance to become the first quarterback in SEC history to throw for 4,000 yards twice in a career.
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He’s not just the SEC’s best quarterback this year — he’s fighting for a seat at the all-time table.
The 2015 season truly was as magical as unexpected, considering the former Clemson transfer had to compete to win the job in preseason camp.
He became the first Rebels quarterback to beat Alabama, Auburn and LSU in the same season. He also was Ole Miss’ first Sugar Bowl MVP since Archie Manning.
Kelly guided the Rebels to their first 10-win season since 2003, when Eli Manning called signals in Oxford. Ole Miss set program records for most points and yards in a bowl game, piling up 554 in a 48-20 win over Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl.
Kelly’s four touchdowns passes tied the Sugar Bowl record and set the school record for a bowl game.
That’s the good news.
Here’s the not-so-good news: Ole Miss must replace four offensive linemen and one of the best receivers in program history. Couple that with the fact that beyond Kelly, Ole Miss has no player on the roster who has thrown a single pass in college football.
Sophomore backups Ryan Buchanan and DeVante Kincade both left the program, leaving the Rebels with nothing in reserve. Redshirt freshman Jason Pellerin (6-4, 229) and five-star recruit Shea Patterson, the nation’s top-rated pro-style quarterback, are the only alternatives.
And that’s where the quarterback concern, if we can call it that, stems from.
Gunning for 4,000, again
Can Kelly duplicate last season? That’s the optimistic question Ole Miss fans are asking themselves.
There are some interesting pros and cons to be pondered. In an interview with Saturday Down South, Jeffrey Gray of Red Cup Rebellion noted how the departure of Laquon Treadwell, Cody Core and several linemen would impact the passing game.
“On the other hand,” Gray said, “the return of Damore’ea Stringfellow, Quincy Adeboyejo and Evan Engram coupled with an infusion of young talent means Kelly’s receiving corps might be even deeper this season than it was in 2015.
“With a veteran stable of running backs and a healthier interior line, he should also have a better ground game to lean on.”
It’s true, junior center Robert Conyers will be a huge boost if he’s healthy again following ACL surgery. But there’s still holes to plug, most notably at left tackle, where Laremy Tunsil left early for the NFL.
Parrish Alford, Ole Miss beat writer for the Daily Journal, also likes the returning receivers and told Saturday Down South that “the chances are good” that Kelly can throw for 4,000 yards again.
“The question will be can the Rebels give Kelly close to the same kind of protection he enjoyed once Tunsil joined the lineup at left tackle. Lots of eyes on incoming freshman offensive tackle Greg Little,” he said.
If Little, a five-star recruit, can handle the jump from high school, it would answer one of the bigger questions in regards to keeping Kelly upright.
Daniel Paulling, Ole Miss beat writer for the Clarion-Ledger, told Saturday Down South that he agrees, given the long and storied history of quarterbacks in the SEC, that Kelly could do what none of them have.
“Chad Kelly has a chance to throw for 4,000 yards again,” Paulling said. “You have to remember he didn’t take over as the full-time quarterback until a couple of games into the season.”
Obviously Ole Miss will miss Treadwell, who led the SEC with 1,153 receiving yards last season, but Paulling also pointed out another advantage favoring Kelly’s quest.
“He’ll be entering his second season in Ole Miss’ offense,” he said.
Mobility factor
If the new offensive line takes time to operate as one, can Kelly survive until it does? And will the offense be hamstrung until head coach Hugh Freeze is satisfied that it has?
“That’s another interesting factor,” Gray said. “How much freedom is Kelly granted to create with his legs? He saw a dramatic uptick in passer efficiency when Freeze took the training wheels off late in 2015, but the lack of quarterback depth heading into 2016 will make Freeze hesitant to turn Chad loose in the early going.”
Kelly is mobile, if not fast. He used his legs to create passing opportunities last season, none more timely than his designed rollout against Alabama, which led to a 73-yard catch-and-run touchdown from Cody Core.
Kelly was second on the team in rushing last season with 500 yards and a team-high 10 rushing touchdowns. He carried the ball 107 times.
The Rebels are hoping he runs more by design than necessity in 2016.
Is Patterson next in line?
A five-star pro-style quarterback, Patterson was rated the top player in the nation at his position by 247sports.com. He won’t be asked to step in and play immediately, but he should get valuable experience watching Kelly and learning the system.
Patterson represents the future.
Paulling said he wouldn’t be surprised to see Patterson get into a few games this season.
“I expect Patterson to play some this fall in specially designed packages and take over full-time next season,” he said. “Jason Pellerin is likely going to be the third-string guy, but it’ll be interesting to see his development this spring.”
How much time does Patterson need?
If he stays healthy, Kelly should provide Patterson with a year to learn from the sidelines. That’s more than 2016 classmate Jacob Eason might get at Georgia.
.@SheaPatterson_1 is the real deal! @OleMissFB #SpringBall #BeatFloridaState pic.twitter.com/2YABi21uiK
— OleMissPix (@OleMissPix) March 4, 2016
“I hesitate to say any incoming freshman is a lock as the next big thing, but Shea Patterson certainly looks like he can step right in for Kelly when the time comes,” Alford said.
“Going through spring drills will be important for Patterson. If he plays up to his recruiting coverage, then the Rebels have set themselves up at quarterback for at least the next few years.”
The hope is Kelly stays healthy all season, allowing Patterson pivotal development time. Implementing a backup plan in the event Kelly gets injured is a bridge that Freeze would rather not have to cross.
“Patterson’s combination of athleticism, accuracy and football intelligence no doubt makes him the QB of the future, but Freeze would rather not throw him into the fire if Kelly were to go down in 2016,” Gray said.
Conclusion: All in on Kelly in 2016
The combination of Kelly’s talent and Ole Miss’ backup plan means the Rebels are all in for Kelly this season.
And why not? Kelly was the first quarterback to lead Ole Miss to five victories over top-25 ranked teams. As a first-year starting quarterback, Kelly recorded the most wins by a Rebel (10) since Jake Gibbs in 1959. He guided an Ole Miss offense that set a total of 14 single-season school records.
Among those records were points (531), touchdowns (68), total offense (6,731), passing yards (4,351), passing TDs (35) and first downs (341). Rarely has a quarterback burst onto the scene like Kelly did for Ole Miss in 2015.
He wasn’t just the SEC’s best quarterback last season. He had the greatest season in Ole Miss history — one of the best in SEC history.
If he can stay healthy, the Rebels are in for another big year. If not, Ole Miss’ vaunted offense could turn into 2015 Florida in a hurry.
Glenn Sattell is an award-winning freelance writer for Saturday Down South.
