Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State: 10 bold predictions for the Egg Bowl

The annual Egg Bowl is upon us, featuring the No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4, 3-4) heading to Oxford to take on their rivals, the Ole Miss Rebels (5-6, 1-6). State is looking good right now, winners of 3 of the past 4, and giving No. 1 Alabama its toughest test of the season. The Rebels, meanwhile, are mired in a 4-game losing streak, and coming off arguably their most excruciating loss of the season at Vanderbilt.

Here are 10 bold predictions for this year’s game.

10. It’s not a sellout crowd

The stakes aren’t as high as they’ve been the past few years, when both were clawing for impressive bowl games, and there isn’t quite the level of animosity heading into the game as there was last year, when the NCAA sanctions clouded overhead. It’s also not really a secret that the Rebels are struggling to put butts in the seats at this point in the season, hence the buy one-get, one ticket deal they’re offering. Combine that with the fact that there are no students on campus for Thanksgiving break, and I’m willing to wager we’ll see a decent number of empty seats.

9. Scottie Phillips joins 1,000-yard club

The Rebels’ star tailback has missed the past two games due to a sprained ankle, but Matt Luke has indicated he’s going to give it a shot Thursday. I know the Bulldogs’ defense is a ferocious unit, but I think Phillips has enough juice to step up for one more big performance of the season, and surpasses 73-yards rushing. In doing so, he’ll become just the 6th 1,000-yard rusher in program history, and it’ll be just the second time in team history they have back-to-back 1,000 yard rushers.

8. State gives up more points than they’re used to

The Bulldogs’ defense is ridiculous. We all know that. And they’re giving up just 12.8 points per game, which is second best in the country, behind only Clemson (allowing 12.1 points per game). With that said, I think Ole Miss scores 13 points or more. I know, I know, Ole Miss crumbles against elite defenses, but this is the Egg Bowl, and craziness is the norm.

7. Nick Fitzgerald crosses 1,000-yard mark … again

Fitzgerald needs just 99 more rushing yards to cross the 1,000-yard mark on the season for the second time in his career. With that, he’ll become just the 4th player in MSU history to rush for 1,000-yards twice in his career, the last being Anthony Dixon in 2007 and 2009. Safe to say, had he not been injured in last year’s Egg Bowl and played the whole game, he would’ve accomplished the feat 3 times – instead he finished with 984.

6. Rebels’ red-zone problems persist

Ole Miss has reached the red zone 53 times but has struggled to find the end zone (especially lately). In fact, their 20 red-zone field goals are tied for most in the country. MSU’s defense is remarkably stout in the red zone, and have allowed just 8 touchdowns in 31 tries. It doesn’t take a brilliant mind to predict the Rebels struggling once again deep in an opponent’s territory — especially one this talented.

5. Jordan Ta’amu joins 4,000-yard club

If Ta’amu throws for 169 yards or more in the Egg Bowl, it’ll be just the second time in program history someone has thrown for 4,000 yards or more in a single season. If he throws for 211-yards or more, he’ll surpass Chad Kelly’s single-season school record of 4,042 yards. Not too bad for a kid with no D-1 offers coming out of high school.

4. Bulldogs rush for 300+ yards

The Rebels’ run defense is simply horrid, allowing 212.8 rushing yards per game, good for 111th nationally. The Bulldogs’ rushing attack, meanwhile, is really good, averaging 218.9 yards per game and 5.7 per carry. Recent history also suggests the Bulldogs should be able to run the ball at will on the Rebels, as they’ve accumulated a whopping 751 yards on the ground the past two years combined, averaging 6.88 yards per carry. The Rebels allowed Arkansas to rush for 299 yards on them this year, and the Bulldogs rushing attack is far superior, so I believe State crosses 300 on the game.

3. There will be penalties, and a lot of them

Both teams have struggled with penalties. Mississippi State is 85th nationally, averaging 6.54 penalties per game, and Ole Miss is 112th, averaging 7.72. Also remember that this game tends to get chippy, and there’s always plenty of excessive celebrations and late hits. Last year’s game alone saw 22 penalties, so expect to see plenty of yellow flags flying on Thursday.

2. A.J. Brown goes out with a flair

He’s by far the greatest receiver in school history, and there’s a good case to be made he’s on the Mount Rushmore of Ole Miss players of all time. More than likely, this will be the last time he ever dons an Ole Miss uniform, because most expect him to declare early for the NFL. He’s already the emotional heart and soul of the team, and as a Starkville native who notoriously spurned the local Bulldogs for the rival Rebels, it’s safe to say that this game means more to him than most. Last year, he caught 6 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown, and followed up by declaring himself the owner of Starkville. Knowing this is likely his last game, what will he do for an encore?

1. The road team wins again

For the 4th consecutive year, I predict the road team walks away victorious. I think the Rebels put up a valiant fight, knowing it’s their final game of the season and will be sending off numerous key seniors (and juniors) who have given the program everything they’ve had the past few years, but I just can’t see how the Rebels stop the Bulldogs’ rushing attack.

There’s also the fact that the Ole Miss offense tends to get bogged down against premier defenses. They tallied 576 yards and 23 points combined against Alabama and LSU, and in every other game averaged 595.66 yards (you read that right) and 42.33 points per game. And guess what? They’re about to face the best defense they’ve seen all year long. Tough to see how the Bulldogs lose this one.

Rick Stavig

Rick Stavig, who played at Ole Miss and Shippensburg University, is the owner of SE Scouting. A veteran scout, he specializes in the NFL Draft and recruiting coverage.