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Penn State vs. Boise State preview, odds, and picks — CFP quarterfinal (Dec. 31)
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On New Year’s Eve, Boise State returns to the site of one of its greatest triumphs while Penn State coach James Franklin gets one more opportunity to beat an AP Top 10 opponent.
The first of 4 College Football Playoff quarterfinal games pits the third-seeded Boise State Broncos (12-1) against the sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2). Kickoff from the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
On one side, the Heisman Trophy runner-up will look to author another Boise miracle at the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos have made 3 prior trips to the Fiesta Bowl and won all 3, including in 2006 when the unbeaten Broncos beat Oklahoma in overtime, 43-42, in one of the greatest upsets in college football history. Can Ashton Jeanty run on the Nittany Lions’ defense or will the Broncos need to be just as gadgety to pull off another win?
For the Nittany Lions, Franklin enters with a 3-24 record all-time against teams ranked inside the top 10 of the AP poll. Boise State currently ranks eighth. A win here for Penn State would dramatically alter the narrative surrounding Franklin, whose only top-10 win since 2016 was over a backup quarterback-led Utah team in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 2, 2023.
Penn State vs. Boise State betting odds
Spread: Penn State -11.5
Total: 53.5 points
Moneyline: Penn State -450, Boise State +350
via FanDuel
Boise State stats, strengths, weaknesses
Boise State is really, really good at running the football.
Surprise, surprise.
Third-year tailback Ashton Jeanty was the best tailback in the country this season and has the chance to author the best rushing season in NCAA history. He won the Maxwell Award and the Doak Walker Award, as well as earning unanimous All-America honors. Through the Mountain West Championship, Jeanty has 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns. He’s 131 yards away from tying Barry Sanders’ all-time single-season rushing record.
Jeanty accounts for over 48% of all total touches from scrimmage in Boise State’s offense this season and holds one of the highest usage rates of any player in the CFP era. (H/T my colleague, Spenser Davis, on this particular nugget.)
Despite the reliance upon and the focus from opposing defenses, Jeanty is one of the most efficient players in the country. His 7.3 yards-per-carry clip is the fifth-best in the FBS among running backs with at least 100 carries. Only 18 runners are averaging more than 7 yards per carry this season and Jeanty is the only one with more than 155 carries. Jeanty has 344 carries.
He has the vision and athleticism to turn mundane runs into massive gains. One linebacker misses a tackle and Jeanty takes it to the house. Jeanty has 12 runs this season that have gained at least 50 yards. No other FBS player has more than 5. And no FBS runner has had more than 7 in a season since 2018. He has more yards after contact this season than 57 other teams have total rushing yards. And he has forced 135 missed tackles, the most by a tailback in a season since PFF started tracking college football in 2014.
On the other side, Boise State’s defense has leaned on a bend-don’t-break philosophy. The Broncos have given up at least 20 yards from scrimmage on 7.6% of their defensive plays this season — a mark that ranks 107th in the FBS. Only 8 defenses have given up more 30-yard plays. Still, the Broncos are 13th nationally in red zone scoring rate allowed. They’ve only given up touchdowns on 54.8% of red zone possessions. They’re not elite as a run-stopping unit or as a secondary, and they don’t take the football away, but they have a knack for coming up with plays in the opposing backfield when they’re needed.
Led by 10 from sophomore edge Jayden Virgin-Morgan and 8.5 from senior Ahmed Hassanein, Boise State ranks second nationally in sacks this season. Ole Miss (52) and Boise State (51) are the only FBS teams with more than 45 sacks on the year. The Broncos are in line to be just the 14th team in the last 9 years to total at least 50 sacks in a season.
Penn State stats, strengths, weaknesses
While quarterback Drew Allar hasn’t wowed (27th in EPA), he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country this season (11th in Total QBR). The 6-foot-5 junior has 3,021 passing yards and 27 total touchdowns. After a 3-interception game against USC on Oct. 12, Allar has been picked off just 3 times in his last 200 pass attempts. He has one of the lowest turnover-worthy throw rates in the country this season at 1.4%, which ranks fifth among FBS QBs with at least 300 dropbacks.
And getting low-risk play from the quarterback spot has kept the Penn State offense humming all season. The Nittany Lions are fifth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and second nationally in offensive success rate, per Game on Paper.
Tailbacks Kaytron Allen (892 yards, 8 scores) and Nic Singleton (928 yards, 8 scores) have both gone off at various times throughout the year. The real difference-maker at the skill positions, however, is tight end Tyler Warren. The Mackey Award winner has 92 receptions for 1,095 yards and 6 touchdowns, 24 carries for 197 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns, and 6 pass attempts for 35 yards and another touchdown. Warren has lined up at quarterback, in the backfield, in the slot, out wide, and as an offensive lineman. Penn State throws him all over the field to leverage matchups.
Unlike with Boise State, Penn State is equally as efficient on the defensive side of the football. The Nittany Lion defense is sixth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. It leans on Abdul Carter (21.5 TFLs this season) and Kobe King (43 stops, or plays resulting in a failure for the offense, per PFF) to stonewall opposing teams at the line of scrimmage. Penn State’s defensive strength is its front, which doesn’t get knocked back and doesn’t give up explosives on the ground.
How to bet the spread in Penn State-Boise State
The Nittany Lions are 7-7 against the spread this season. They’ve covered in 3 of their last 4 games as a double-digit favorite, an area that has typically been a hallmark of Franklin’s PSU tenure. Since taking over the program, Franklin is 39-25-3 ATS (58.2%) as a double-digit favorite.
Boise State is 7-5-1 ATS this season, but this will only be the second game all year in which the Broncos have been an underdog. They were an 18-point dog against Oregon and lost by 3. Over the last 2 seasons, Boise State is 2-3-1 ATS as an underdog.
BetMGM has the best price for a bet on Penn State -11. Boise State bettors can get the Broncos +11.5 at FanDuel.
How to bet the total in Penn State-Boise State
Unders have hit in 8 of Penn State’s 14 games so far this season and in 6 of Boise State’s 13 games. But they’re going in different directions. The point total went over the number in each of Boise State’s first 5 games. Since then, 6 of Boise State’s 8 games have gone under the projected point total. Meanwhile, Penn State overs have cashed in 4 of the last 5 games.
The total is sitting at 53.5 across the board.
Prop picks in Penn State-Boise State
Penn State has one of the highest defensive havoc rates in the country and loves to blitz. Dillon Gabriel was blitzed on 49% of his dropbacks in the Big Ten Championship Game. Will Howard was blitzed on 46.4% of his dropbacks when the Nittany Lions faced Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are going to load the box and try to create some splash plays in the backfield. While Boise State hasn’t used Jeanty much in the pass game, he was a factor out of the backfield a year ago and I think he might see a few targets to try and counter Penn State’s aggressiveness. Jeanty has multiple receptions in 7 games this season, and he did it in 11 of his 12 appearances last season. FanDuel has -176 odds on Jeanty clearing 1.5 receptions.
If the Broncos have to sell out to keep Penn State off schedule, Drew Allar is going to have 1-on-1 matchups in the pass game and should be able to find some chunk plays. Every other quarterback who has faced Boise State this season has had success going through the air. The Ducks had an 18% explosive play rate and hit a couple of huge shots in the pass game when they faced Boise State earlier this year. Dillon Gabriel completed all 11 of his passes on first down against the Broncos and the Ducks averaged 9 yards per play. Boise State is giving up 246.8 passing yards per contest this season, and I like Allar to go over his average of 216 by a healthy margin. DraftKings has -120 odds on Allar to clear 225 passing yards.
Prediction for Penn State-Boise State
The blowout potential in this quarterfinal matchup is unfortunately significant. The Boise State defense gave up a ton of explosives and missed a ton of tackles against Mountain West competition this season and now they have to make a giant step up in competition. And I think the layoff might cause the tackling to be even more of a problem early on in the game. I’m laying the points with Penn State -11 at Caesars.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
