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Peterson: The preseason AP Top 25 poll is out, and here’s what it got wrong
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The preseason AP Top 25 was released on Monday. Georgia took the top spot and the vast majority of the first-place votes. Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama rounded out the top five, so there were no surprises there. Ole Miss landed in the top 10 — again, not a surprise. Penn State and Michigan landed in the top 10 — again, not a surprise.
At the outset of the new season, we have a fairly good idea which teams will be the dominant forces in the upcoming season. It is worth pointing out, however, that in 18 of the last 20 seasons, a preseason top-10 team has finished unranked in the final AP poll.
My guess as to which team that might be in 2024 is probably different from yours. And it’s probably different than several AP poll voters. I’m not in that group, though I did submit a top 25 for Saturday Down South’s official preseason top 25. I had Missouri in my top 10. I had Florida State outside it. I had Notre Dame right on the edge in the 10th spot. I also had 2 ACC squads inside my top 25 that weren’t in the AP poll at all (though they received votes).
Here’s how I ranked the preseason top 25.
1. Georgia
AP ranking: 1
Georgia got 46 of a possible 62 first-place votes (74.2%) in the AP poll and I’m honestly surprised it didn’t have an even higher share. This is the best team in the country. It was the best team in the country a year ago, brought back its star quarterback, boosted its skill positions via the transfer portal, and did not have to go through the usual level of defensive attrition.
2. Oregon
AP ranking: 3
I have Oregon ahead of Ohio State, though only just. I am fully bought into Dan Lanning’s third team in Eugene. The Ducks scored 44 points a game last season and have the juice to match that output again in 2024 despite making the jump to the Big Ten. Without seeing either team take the field yet, I’d give the edge to Ohio State’s defense but I believe Oregon’s offense will be that much better than Ohio State’s. The Ducks have a player who can win himself the Heisman Trophy at quarterback. Ohio State has a player who can be the Heisman winner because of what’s around him, and I think the distinction is important.
3. Ohio State
AP ranking: 2
Will Howard, Ohio State’s new quarterback, was 22nd last season in Total QBR among qualified FBS passers. Kyle McCord, the guy pushed out the door to make room for Howard, was eighth. One could argue McCord did less with more, but Kansas State wasn’t exactly hurt to see Howard leave. He can be a fine quarterback, though he doesn’t have to be great for this offense to be great. Or this team, for that matter. Jack Sawyer, Tyleik Williams, Ty Hamilton, and JT Tuimoloau are all back on the defensive front. Linebacker is loaded. The 1-2 punch at corner is among the best in the country. Safety is loaded. In Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ rankings, Ohio State is projected to have the No. 2 defense in the country. Hard to argue.
4. Texas
AP ranking: 4
Quinn Ewers returns to quarterback the Longhorns after helping lead the team to a College Football Playoff appearance last year. The loss of Cedric Baxter is a significant blow.
Related reading: What CJ Baxter’s season-ending injury means for Texas, the SEC, and the Playoff picture
5. Alabama
AP ranking: 5
Alabama enters its first season post-Nick Saban and it feels very strange. Replacing the fiery defensive trailblazer is a more reserved offensive mastermind. Kalen DeBoer is not Nick Saban, and he won’t try to be. But Alabama’s 2024 season won’t be defined by how well DeBoer replaces Saban. Instead, it’ll be defined by how successful he is at marrying what he wants to do on offense with what he has at quarterback. At his best last year, Jalen Milroe was a Heisman contender. At his poorest, he was benched. Milroe can change games, but he’s a different type of quarterback than what DeBoer had at Washington. I trust DeBoer’s ability to make this work and get the most out of Milroe, I just wonder how long it takes for this duo to fire on all cylinders.
6. Penn State
AP ranking: 8
Penn State has a powerful ground game and one of America’s best defenses. It all comes down to Drew Allar and how good he can be under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Since 2016, Penn State is 69-11 in games it entered as the favorite. Beating the teams PSU was supposed to beat hasn’t been the issue. It’s winning the games they weren’t supposed to win that has punished the Nittany Lions. They’re 5-16 as an underdog during that time. I’m skeptical of the Nittany Lions as a legitimate national title contender, but they are undeniably one of the more talented teams in the country.
7. Ole Miss
AP ranking: 6
Unlike the Nittany Lions, I think Ole Miss can be a title contender. I feel much more comfortable about their quarterback situation entering the new season compared to Penn State. But Ole Miss has important questions of its own. Namely, the defense isn’t close to the same level. It could be. But we don’t know yet. The Rebels won 11 games last year. But they lost to Alabama (24-10) and Georgia (52-17). Do the moves that looked good on paper pan out on the field?
8. Missouri
AP ranking: 11
I’m a tad higher on Missouri than the consensus, and that’s fine. Another 11-win team out of the SEC last season, Missouri brings back veteran quarterback Brady Cook and All-American receiver Luther Burden III. There’s a ton of continuity on offense here, enough to potentially overcome a very real changing of the guard on the defensive side of the ball.
9. Michigan
AP ranking: 9
Michigan won the national title last season and though they’re among the lowest teams in the country in returning production, I refuse to drop a reigning champion outside a top 10 before they play a game. I don’t feel good about the pass game, even though the Wolverines have an outstanding tight end. But because of the defense, Michigan should remain among the most competitive teams in the country.
10. Notre Dame
AP ranking: 7
I was skeptical of Notre Dame before the Irish lost their left tackle. Now, I’m legitimately concerned. The Irish have to protect Riley Leonard, who missed time last season and this spring because of an ankle injury. They open the season against Texas A&M, which has a pair of ends to throw at Notre Dame that can cause major damage. Before, I thought Notre Dame could skate through a pretty manageable regular-season schedule.
Related reading: How much trouble is Notre Dame in without Charles Jagusah?
11. LSU
AP ranking: 13
The Tigers have 2 really big things working for them this season. First, they have one of the best offensive lines in college football. Second, they have a top-15-ish linebacking corps. With a good defensive coordinator and a veteran (if not inexperienced) quarterback, I think the floor is quite high for LSU in 2024. I actually think they clear the 9.5-win total at bet365. (The over on LSU’s total has +140 odds right now; here’s a bet365 Louisiana promo to use.)
12. Florida State
AP ranking: 10
There’s a lot of hyperbole around Florida State. Some suggest the Seminoles are going to fall from the ranks and suffer from all the supposed anger left over from last season. Some think FSU is the clear favorite to win the ACC again. I think Florida State will be… fine? Not an elite, not a top-10 team, but also not an implosion waiting to happen. They have a really strong defense, but there will be a sharp drop in the quality of the passing attack.
13. Oklahoma
AP ranking: 16
The Sooners have a strong receiving corps and potentially an elite defense. I like OU to be competitive right away in the SEC.
14. Tennessee
AP ranking: 15
All the attention is on Tennessee’s budding young quarterback — and rightfully so — but don’t overlook how good this Vols team will be in the trenches. On the offensive line, they’re expected to start 4 seniors — an All-SEC center among them — alongside a sophomore who was a former 5-star recruit and an immediate starter at the college level. On defense, James Pearce Jr. is the kind of talent that forces offenses to be mindful of him every single snap he’s on the field — a problem because the entire front line is deep.
15. Kansas State
AP ranking: 18
Kansas State won 9 games a year ago, including the greatest bowl game ever created. Take away the rivalry contest against Iowa State that was played on a snow-covered field; the Wildcats’ other 3 losses were by 3 points on the road at Missouri, by 8 points on the road at Oklahoma State, and by 3 points on the road at Texas. They have a good bit of production to replace, but they upgraded at quarterback.
16. Utah
AP ranking: 12
Utah played the entire 2023 campaign without its heart and soul quarterback or its Swiss army knife tight end. Their blue-chip starting linebacker was lost for the season in October. They were so hamstrung at running back they used a safety. They had 8 different defensive linemen play at least 200 snaps because of consistent availability issues. Ute Zone’s Steve Bartle tracked 157 games missed because of injuries just from starters and backups on the team’s 2-deep. And the Utes still won 8 games. Cam Rising’s back. Brant Kuithe’s back. The defense is loaded in the front seven. This is my pick to win the Big 12.
17. SMU
AP ranking: unranked
I was a bit surprised to see the Mustangs outside the top 25. They won 11 games and a conference title in 2023, they return a 3,200-yard passer and all the top skill players, they return a huge percentage of defensive production, they bring both coordinators back, and 12 of the 21 transfers who joined the program came from another Power 4 school and will play along the line of scrimmage. We can debate how successful SMU will be with its conference jump, but the Mustangs ended last season 22nd in the final AP poll and didn’t lose enough to justify dropping out. (If you’re looking at preseason win totals, SMU has positive value on the over for its 8.5 wins at Caesars.)
18. Clemson
AP ranking: 14
Clemson suffered through its worst stretch of ACC play last season in over a decade. The 4-4 record in league games was the worst by a Clemson team since 2010. On talent, they’re a good team. I believe in the potential — so much so that I’m picking them to win the ACC — but as far as preseason rankings go, they need to show significant improvement on offense to land in the top 15.
19. Oklahoma State
AP ranking: 17
According to Bill Connelly’s calculations, the Cowboys are third in the country in returning production. No offense brings back more than the Cowboys. Everything on that side of the ball is back, including Heisman-contending tailback Ollie Gordon II. The Cowboys won 10 games and played for a Big 12 title last season. I love them against the market this season, but there are major questions at quarterback. Alan Bowman threw 501 passes last season and 14 picks. In both cases, those numbers are entirely too high. Is Bowman good enough to win big games for Oklahoma State? There doesn’t appear to be truth to rampant internet speculation that Gordon is hurt, which is good for OSU.
20. Texas A&M
AP ranking: 20
Thanks to Jimbo Fisher’s efforts, the Aggies have recruited with the best of the best in recent years. Using 247Sports’ team class rankings, the Aggies have been a top-10 recruiter over the last 5 years. Now, they have a coach who has made a name for himself by doing more with less. Mike Elko has himself a talented team.
21. Iowa
AP ranking: 25
Because of a putrid offense, Iowa is a distant fifth behind the Big Ten’s elites. But the Hawkeyes are going to beat everyone else because this defense will once again be downright dastardly. All-American defensive back Cooper DeJean has to be replaced, but can I introduce you to Sebastian Castro? Fourteen of the 17 players who saw at least 100 snaps on defense last year are back, and that group has 466 FBS appearances, 178 FBS starts, and 1,461 tackles amongst them. Phil Parker is going to have one of the oldest defenses we’ve seen in some time, which is just not fun for anyone outside of Iowa City.
22. Miami
AP ranking: 19
Readers know I’m incredibly high on Miami in 2024. I think the Hurricanes have CFP potential. Quarterback Cameron Ward and running back Damien Martinez were just 2 additions from a transfer class that ranked 10th in the country. Additionally, Miami signed a second consecutive top-10 high school class. Miami underperformed last season because it couldn’t win close games. If that flips, the Canes are breaking through.
23. Arizona
AP ranking: 21
Arizona has a quarterback-receiver duo that makes it a Big 12 title contender. Noah Fifita finished last season sixth nationally in Total QBR. He threw for 2,515 yards and 23 touchdowns while completing 74% of his passes, and he didn’t enter the starting lineup until the fifth game of the season. The chemistry with wideout Tetairoa McMillan is obvious. What kind of step does Fifita take this season without the head coach who gave him his shot, the offensive coordinator who called plays for him, the quarterback coach who worked with him daily, or the No. 2 receiver he leaned on almost as much as McMillan?
24. Kansas
AP ranking: 22
Folks are high on Kansas. I’m not, at least not to the same degree. But I can’t deny that Lance Leipold has done something special in Lawrence. Kansas won 9 games for the first time since 2007, beat a top-10 team for the first since 2008, went 3-2 on the road, and won a bowl game for the first time since 2008. The Jayhawks no longer have a safety blanket at quarterback now that Jason Bean is out of eligibility. Quarterback Jalon Daniels, who has missed 14 of the 26 Kansas games over the last 2 years, has to stay healthy. And he has to work with a new offensive coordinator.
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25. Louisville
AP ranking: unranked
Perhaps the lack of ACC love should be expected. But this Cardinals team won 10 games a year ago, played for an ACC title, and ended the season 19th in the final AP poll. They appeared to be well ahead of schedule in Jeff Brohm’s first season. It’s unwise to doubt Brohm’s ability to put a good offense on the field, and Louisville brings back 9 starters from a defense that was strong against the run, elite on third down, and the best in the country in the red zone.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
