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Taking a position-by-position look at Alabama vs. Michigan State, here’s what to watch for in Thursday night’s College Football Playoff showdown between the Crimson Tide and the Spartans:
QUARTERBACK — Michigan State: What’s not to like about Alabama’s Jacob Coker? He’s 12-0 as a starter this season, he’s completed nearly 66 percent of his passes and his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 17 to 8. Yet he might not get drafted next spring even if he leads the Crimson Tide to a national championship.
Coker has a tough counterpart in Connor Cook. Only Stanford’s Kevin Hogan — with 35 victories — has more career wins as an active starting FBS quarterback than Cook’s 34. Plus, according to CBS Sports, Cook is projected to be a first-round pick.
Both signal-callers obviously know how to win, but Cook’s extensive experience and success give the Spartans the edge here — assuming his balky right shoulder is ready.
RUNNING BACKS — Alabama: Michigan State’s top three running backs — LJ Scott, Gerald Holmes and Madre London — have combined to rush for 1,614 yards and 22 TDs.
But Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry outrushed — and outscored — the Spartan trio by himself. Henry comes into the Cotton Bowl matchup with 1,986 rushing yards, which broke the SEC single-season mark set by Herschel Walker 34 years ago. Plus, Henry’s 23 rushing TDs have tied the SEC mark shared by Auburn’s Tre Mason (2013) and Florida’s Tim Tebow (2007).
What Michigan State has in quantity Henry exceeds in quality.
WIDE RECEIVERS, TIGHT END — Michigan State: Calvin Ridley has had a great first year as the Crimson Tide’s top receiver. The freshman has hauled in 75 passes for 893 yards and 5 TDs, which is tied with senior Richard Mullaney, who also has 34 receptions for 308 yards.
Sophomore ArDarius Stewart has been a solid No. 2 with 54 catches for 600 yards and four scores. Plus, O.J. Howard has produced from the tight end spot with 30 catches for 335 yards.
For the Spartans, Aaron Burbridge has been outstanding with a Big Ten-leading 80 grabs and 1,219 yards to go along with 7 TDs. Fellow senior Macgarrett Kings Jr. has chipped in with 38 catches for 492 yards and 5 scores while junior R.J. Shelton has caught 41 passes for 484 yards and 4 TDs. Junior tight end Josiah Price has been a dangerous red-zone target with 6 of his 19 receptions going for touchdowns to go along with 228 receiving yards.
Several factors give Sparty the advantage here: Burbridge’s productivity, the group’s experience and Michigan State’s propensity to turn to Price in a pinch.
OFFENSIVE LINE — Alabama: The Crimson Tide’s blockers have helped their ball-carriers average 4.83 yards an attempt, which ranks 35th in the FBS, and Bama has run for 28 TDs, which is coincidentally tied for 28th. The Tide is also tied for 34th nationally in sacks allowed per game (1.46).
The Spartans’ ball-carriers are averaging just 3.97 yards per rush, which is only 93rd, while Michigan State is tied for 53rd in the country with 24 scores on the ground. Sparty is yielding 1.31 sacks per game, which is tied for 25th. Bama gets the nod here based on its clearly better run blocking.
DEFENSIVE LINE — Alabama: The Crimson Tide is first in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game (74.0); Bama is also tied for tops in the FBS in rushing TDs allowed (6). Alabama also leads the country with 46 sacks.
Michigan State is tied for 18th in the FBS with 35 sacks. The Spartans are also ninth in the country against the run, allowing 113.1 rushing yards per game.
The Spartans’ Shilique Calhoun — a projected NFL second-rounder — Joel Heath and Lawrence Thomas are good players, but they are not of the caliber of Alabama’s top three linemen, who all could go in the first round of the 2016 NFL draft.
LINEBACKERS — Alabama: Reggie Ragland, the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, leads the Tide with 90 total tackles — including 6.5 for loss — and is averaging a career-best 6.9 stops a game, exceeding last year’s pace of 6.6 per contest from the Mike spot. He also is projected to be a first-round pick.
Alabama’s second-leading tackler with 60 total stops — including 7 for loss — Will LB Reuben Foster also has 8 pass breakups to share the team lead with defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick. Denzel Devall has made 21 tackles — including 5 for loss — as the Jack LB to go along with 6 QB hurries, 2 pass breakups and a sack. Sam LB Dillon Lee has made 18 total tackles and has added a sack, a QB hurry and a pass breakup.
With 95 total stops, junior middle linebacker Riley Bullough is Michigan State’s leading tackler. Senior Darien Harris (82 tackles, including 7 for loss) is a nice complement at weakside LB, and sophomore Jon Reschke (74 tackles, 8 QB hurries) rounds out the Spartans’ linebacking corps. It’s a good a group, but Ragland and Co. get the edge.
SECONDARY — Alabama: The Crimson Tide is 16th in the FBS in passing defense, allowing 184.2 yards per game and is tied for 17th nationally with 16 interceptions.
Michigan State is only 73rd in the country in passing ‘D’ (229.8 yards per game), but is tied for 22nd with 15 picks.
Montae Nicholson and Demetrious Cox (7 pass breakups) are the leading tacklers in the Spartans’ secondary with 76 and 72, respectively. They also share the team lead with 3 interceptions apiece. Darian Hicks has made 30 tackles and added 3 pass break-ups while fellow corner Arjen Colquhoun is first on the Spartans with 10 pass break-ups and has added 39 tackles, 2 forced fumbles and 2 picks.
For Alabama, when’s he hasn’t returned 3 punts for TDs, cornerback Cyrus Jones has made 29 tackles and broken up 7 passes. Strong safety Eddie Jackson (40 tackles, 2 pass breakups) finished tied for the SEC lead in interceptions (5) and pick-sixes (2).
Free safety Geno Matias-Smith has made 57 tackles, while Marlon Humphrey (5 pass break-ups, 3 INTs) has added 40. Fitzpatrick has had a fantastic freshman season with 41 tackles, 8 pass breakups and 2 pick-sixes from his Star spot, and reserve Ronnie Harrison has picked off 2 passes to go along with 14 tackles and 4 pass break-ups.
The Tide gets the edge here because it is better against the pass; Bama is allowing almost 50 fewer aerial yards per game. That could be a huge difference on New Year’s Eve if Michigan State happens to fall behind and starts to pass more than it usually does.
Stan Chrapowicki is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football, Alabama and Auburn.
