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LSU-Auburn games tend to be embarrassing for one reason or another.
Take last year, when Leonard Fournette embarrassed Auburn’s defense with a couple of highlight-reel runs where the Auburn defenders didn’t seem particularly motivated to stop him from getting his 228 yards and 3 touchdowns. LSU won, 45-21.
Or take 2014 when Auburn completely dismantled LSU 41-7 in the last game in The Plains.
This year, they meet again at Auburn with both LSU coach Les Miles and especially Auburn coach Gus Malzahn on the hot seat. Neither can afford any embarrassments on Saturday.
Who’s more likely to be embarrassed? Let’s take a look.
When LSU has the ball
QB Danny Etling vs. Auburn pass defense: Etling may be the talk of Baton Rouge right now for the spark he’s given the LSU offense, but forgive Auburn if it’s not impressed.
Auburn has already faced Heisman Trophy candidate Deshaun Watson of Clemson (although it should be noted that Watson has not been setting the world afire this season) and one of the SEC’s hot quarterbacks, Trevor Knight of Texas A&M. So take with a grain of salt that those Tigers are 10th in the league in pass defense. What should impress you is they have only allowed two touchdowns through the air in three games.
Carl Lawson was hoping to have a breakout season as a pass-rusher this year, but so far has just one sack and, as a team, Auburn has just five. That’s been a disappointment but, again, the competition level has been high.
But even if the Tigers struggle to generate pressure, don’t expect Etling to light it up. His breakout game last week against Mississippi State was merely a 215-yard outing. So far, his numbers — 25-for-44, 315 yards, 2 TDs, 1 interception — are modest. LSU is better throwing the ball with Etling, but it’s not like the Tigers look like a team ready to pass every down.
EDGE: Auburn.
RB Leonard Fournette and Co. vs. Auburn run defense: The memories of last year’s embarrassment of Auburn’s defense by Fournette are hard to shake. But this year, his numbers are a little bit down (142.5 yards per game after averaging a nation’s-best 162.8 yards per game last year).
Again, don’t let the numbers fool you. LSU has gone against one of the nation’s best defenses annually in Wisconsin (a 16-14 loss), and Fournette has been a little banged up with an ankle injury that caused him to miss the Jacksonville State game in Week 2.
And LSU’s per-carry average as a team (5.2) ranks fourth in the SEC.
Auburn’s run defense is better than it was last year, but it’s still not great. In both games against Power 5 conference teams, the Tigers have allowed 100-yard rushing days (Wayne Gallman of Clemson and Texas A&M’s Trayveon Williams), and neither of those guys are in the same ballpark as Fournette.
Expect Fournette to get his 100-plus, maybe a lot more.
EDGE: LSU
LSU receivers vs. Auburn secondary: This is an interesting matchup. LSU has some talent and seems like more of a threat with No. 3 receiver D.J. Chark getting more targets — and catches — to complement stars Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Since Etling became quarterback, he’s completed passes to seven different receivers, forcing defenses to have to cover more field.
Still, LSU has a lot to prove with its receivers. Dupre had issues with drops early, and Dural has just been average. Auburn, meanwhile, has at least been good at keeping opposing pass offenses out of the end zone (just two touchdown passes allowed), even if it also has just one interception (cornerback Joshua Holsey).
Carlton Davis, the other corner, is a good cover guy and Auburn’s secondary, despite modest production, is pretty talented. Sort of like LSU’s receivers.
EDGE: Even
When Auburn has the ball
Auburn QB Sean White vs. LSU pass defense: White has modest numbers, coming into the game sixth in the SEC in passer rating and eighth in passing yards per game (170 YPG). And he’ll be up against a pretty good LSU pass defense, rated fifth in the SEC in opponent passer rating.
And while Auburn should worry about the likes of Tre’Davious White in the LSU secondary, the real concern should be protecting White. Auburn has been the worst team in the SEC at protection, allowing nine sacks, and LSU is coming off a game where the Tigers generated six sacks of Mississippi State quarterbacks.
Leading the way is outside linebacker-defensive end hybrid Arden Key, who leads the league with five sacks. He’s joined by accomplished rushers Lewis Neal and Davon Godchaux. LSU’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing should concern Auburn.
EDGE: LSU
Auburn RBs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway vs. LSU run defense: Johnson and Pettway have emerged as quite a tandem in the Auburn backfield with Pettway rushing for 275 yards and 7.9 yards per carry despite getting no carries in the opener against Clemson, and Johnson going for 278 yards and 4 touchdowns.
With the pair leading the way, Auburn leads the league in rushing yards at 261.7 yards per game.
It gets even better when backup quarterback John Franklin III relieves White. He averages 9 yards per tote (117 yards on 13 carries), and his threat on the zone-read option helps create holes for the dynamic running backs.
LSU, meanwhile, is allowing just 103.3 yards per game despite playing three teams that like to run the ball (traditional ground-and-pound program Wisconsin, FCS power Jacksonville State and Mississippi State), and the Tigers have some pretty good run-stoppers in linebacker Kendell Beckwith and strong safety Jamal Adams.
This will be a fun matchup. Expect to see Franklin, and if we do, know that LSU played the read-option well against Mississippi State after having a few breakdowns against Jacksonville State.
EDGE: Even
Auburn WRs vs. LSU secondary: Senior Tony Stevens is off to a good start with 13 receptions — one short of a career high for a season — and two touchdowns so far for Auburn. But he may draw White, one of the best cover corners in the country, or perhaps Kevin Toliver, who has the size to help offset Stevens’ biggest strength, his length.
Across the board, that appears to be the case. Auburn has a couple of guys having good years, but in White, Toliver and Donte Jackson, they are up against one of the most talented trio of cover corners in the country. Look for Auburn to try to go after Toliver, but for the most part, the sophomore has held his own.
The tough part for Auburn is that LSU should be able to generate pressure without blitzing, which should leave little room for the Auburn receivers to work with in the secondary against seven-man coverage schemes.
EDGE: LSU
Special Teams
Neither team is great in special teams, though both teams have strengths.
For Auburn, it’s kicker Daniel Carlson, who has yet to miss on 14 placement kicks (8 PATs and 6 field goal attempts and has a long of 53). LSU’s placement kicks have been shaky. Colby Delahoussaye has had two extra points blocked already, a concern for the Tigers.
On the other hand, kickoff specialist Cameron Gamble has helped the Tigers lead the league in kickoff coverage, and LSU is a little bit better than Auburn in punt returns and kickoff returns. As a punt returner, LSU’s Tre’Davious White is the strongest member of a return team on either side.
But having a reliable guy like Carlson to kick in big moments offsets the mostly slight advantages LSU has in other areas.
EDGE: Even
