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How quickly things changed.
In August, the LSU-Mississippi State matchup was one where LSU had a clear advantage at quarterback with Brandon Harris back as one of the SEC’s few returning starters, and Mississippi State was trying to replace perhaps its best quarterback ever in Dak Prescott.
As we head to the game just three weeks into the season. Harris is benched, replaced by a guy who lost his starting job at Purdue. And Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald is coming off a 195-yard rushing game (a school record for quarterbacks) where he also threw for 178 yards in a win over South Carolina.
Those are Prescott-like numbers.
How quickly things can change, right? Does MSU have more advantages? Let’s take a look:
When Mississippi State has the ball
Nick Fitzgerald vs. LSU passing defense: While Fitzgerald was effective last week, in two games, it’s clear the best weapon he and fellow Bulldogs quarterback Damian Williams provide are as runners.
MSU is ninth in the SEC in passer rating, and Fitzgerald has just been OK, throwing for nothing in limited action in the first week before his 178 yards against South Carolina.
Meanwhile, LSU has one of the most talented secondaries in the nation. The Tigers have intercepted three passes, one for a touchdown. If the Tigers stay disciplined and the run defense does its part, it should be difficult for Fitzgerald to get going in the air.
LSU can also generate pressure. Arden Key is tied for the SEC lead in sacks with three, and Lewis Neal is also a top-flight pass-rusher. Look for MSU to try to offset the pass rush with the threat of the option run game.
Edge: LSU
Fitzgerald and MSU’s RBs vs. LSU run defense: MSU coach Dan Mullen is known for mentoring dynamic, dual-threat quarterbacks like Tim Tebow (as Florida’s offensive coordinator) and Prescott. Fitzgerald’s skill set fits that mold.
LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is known for sound, physical defenses. So far, his first LSU defense is well on its way to being just that.
So who wins this matchup? Mullen with a quarterback with a limited résumé or Aranda, who is still learning the LSU personnel?
So far, LSU has been good against the run, allowing Wisconsin and Jacksonville State, two good running teams, just 3.3 yards per carry. But the Tigers have given up yards to good running quarterbacks in the past.
Fitzgerald and Williams have 299 of the Bulldogs’ 529 rushing yards, which points to the biggest MSU issue in the run game, the lack of a dominant running back. Brandon Holloway has just 96 yards in two games and is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. His signature is speed and quickness, and against LSU’s fast defense, that shouldn’t take him far.
Fitzgerald is pretty good, but so is LSU’s defensive front. The matchup may come down to simply how well the Tigers play their assignments against the zone-read option.
Edge: Even.
MSU receivers vs. LSU secondary: Fred Ross is coming off a 1,000-yard season, but perhaps slowed by an offseason groin injury, he has caught plenty of passes (11) but has just 73 yards in two games.
None of MSU’s other receivers have been particularly productie. Holloway, with eight catches, is good out of the backfield.
LSU, meanwhile, has a talented group of cover corners in the trio of Tre’Davious White, Donte Jackson and Kevin Toliver, maybe the best trio in the SEC. Ross will need to be at his best to get open this game.
Edge: LSU
When LSU has the ball
LSU QB Danny Etling vs. Mississippi State pass defense: It wasn’t the finest moment for MSU’s defense when South Alabama’s Dallas Davis passed for 285 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second half of a 21-20 Jaguars upset.
After that game, one would have to paint the Bulldogs’ pass defense as suspect, even if it did bounce back with a good performance against South Carolina.
But that’s nothing compared to the dumpster fire that has been LSU’s pass attack. The Tigers are second-to-last in the SEC in passing with just 258 yards, numbers that led to Harris’ benching.
If the Tigers are to improve, they have to protect the new guy from Mississippi State’s A.J. Jefferson, who is tied with Key for the SEC lead in sacks with three to go with six total tackles for loss.
Edge: MSU
LSU RB Leonard Fournette and Co. vs. MSU rush defense: MSU’s rush defense has been fantastic, allowing opponents just 2.1 yards per carry. But those games were against South Alabama and offense-challenged South Carolina.
This week, it’s LSU and a Heisman Trophy candidate in Leonard Fournette, the nation’s leader in rushing yards per game last year. Fournette was banged up last week against Jacksonville State and didn’t play, but even if the ankle injury persists, Derrius Guice is more than capable as a backup.
LSU, which is averaging 185 rushing yards per game, is as good as it gets running and can usually only be slowed down by its own lack of a passing game.
Edge: LSU
LSU receivers vs. MSU secondary: The Bulldogs’ secondary got shredded a bit by a Sun Belt Conference offense and, as a team, the Bulldogs have only one interception.
But, again, they are facing a struggling passing game. Malachi Dupre, LSU’s star receiver, has as many drops (three) as receptions. Travin Dural has yet to break out, and the rest of the wide receivers have combined for two catches.
Tight end DeSean Smith had a 46-yard touchdown pass last week, and Etling appears to look to spread the ball around more than Harris did. Having more options should open up LSU’s passing game, but with this offense, it has to prove it before earning that kind of respect.
Edge: MSU
Special Teams
MSU’s Westin Graves has missed two field goals, including a potential game-winner against South Alabama. Punter Logan Cooke is averaging a solid 47.3 yards per punt. LSU’s Colby Delahoussaye has yet to attempt a field goal, and punter Josh Growden has struggled some, averaging 35.5 yards per punt.
Both teams have had kicks blocked (a punt by MSU and a Delahoussaye PAT).
LSU’s Tre’Davious White, who returned a punt 60 yards for a touchdown against JSU, may give LSU a slight edge with his dynamic abilities.
Edge: LSU
