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Remember when Ole Miss and LSU were to be the two SEC West teams that would challenge Alabama?
Well, Ole Miss did just that but lost the game, 48-43. Now, after three shootout losses, the Rebels come into the LSU game a mere 3-3 football team following last week’s loss to Arkansas. Never mind challenging Alabama, the Rebels, though three close losses from being undefeated, are just trying to stay above .500.
As for LSU, the Tigers have already lost their coach as Les Miles was sent packing after a 2-2 start and replaced by … former Ole Miss head coach Ed Orgeron, who is now a calmer version of the guy who had Ole Miss in a three-year, 10-25 quagmire in the mid-2000s.
LSU is 4-2, 2-0 under Orgeron, and, unlike Ole Miss, still has a chance to catch Alabama. But first, the Tigers have to try to get by the best passing offense in the SEC and a team that handed the Tigers an embarrassing 38-17 loss last year in Oxford.
When Ole Miss has the ball
QB Chad Kelly vs. LSU pass defense: It’s hard to argue against Kelly as the SEC’s best quarterback. He leads the league and is 14th nationally with 308.2 yards passing per game. He’s third in the league in pass efficiency, but given the Rebels’ tough schedule — Florida State, Alabama, Georgia and Arkansas are among their six opponents so far — it’s understandable.
He’s up against a good LSU secondary that’s fifth in the SEC and 21st nationally in pass efficiency defense.
Here’s the rub for the Tigers: In Ole Miss losses, teams have turned Kelly over. Florida State intercepted him three times. Alabama forced a fumble and an interception and both were returned for touchdowns. Arkansas picked off a pass. However, LSU has not been great at forcing turnovers, particularly interceptions. The Tigers are tied for 12th in the SEC in interceptions (just four) and are tied for the fewest total turnovers forced in the league (eight).
What LSU does well is pressure passers with 18 sacks, led by SEC sack leader Arden Key’s seven sacks. Kelly can be reached as he’s been sacked 12 times. But he also has 213 yards rushing and has the ability to avoid the pass rush to extend plays.
Edge: Ole Miss
Ole Miss RBs vs. LSU rush defense: The Tigers have a clear advantage here, coming in second in the SEC behind only Alabama at 103.7 yards per game while a Rebels offense lacking a go-to back is just 12th in the league at 155.8 yards per game.
There’s no question that with middle linebacker Kendell Beckwith — who is second in the SEC in tackles — leading the way, the Tigers are better stopping the run than Ole Miss is at running it. The only question is, can the Rebels at least run it effectively enough to keep LSU from being able to suffocate Kelly and the passing attack?
Ole Miss may need for Akeem Judd (67 carries, 343 yards) or Eugene Brazley (31, 201) to exceed their modest rushing averages so far this year. If Ole Miss’ best runs come from Kelly scrambling away from pressure, it could be a tough day for a usually explosive Rebels offense.
Edge: LSU
Ole Miss WRs vs. LSU secondary: Evan Engram is one of those tight end/wide receiver hybrids who create a matchup problem because their combination of size and athleticism. Put a linebacker on him and he’s too fast. Put a defensive back on him and his 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame creates an issue.
With Laquon Treadwell gone to the NFL, Engram has picked up the slack for Ole Miss this year, leading the SEC with 590 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Van Jefferson and Damore’ea Stringfellow (22 receptions apiece) have been solid complimentary players.
LSU has the defenders to match up. Cornerback Tre’Davious White figures to go in the middle of the first round of the NFL Draft, and Kevin Toliver could be there next year. At safety, Jamal Adams is a top 10 pick. It’s not often that opponents make plays simply because the receiver beats an LSU defensive back.
It’ll be tough for Ole Miss’ receivers to get open against this bunch, especially if LSU’s capable pass rush doesn’t allow them time to find ways to get open. On the other hand, the Tigers don’t have players with the size to match up with Engram down the field, although Adams is a physical presence and Toliver is tall for a cornerback.
Edge: Even
When LSU has the ball
QB Danny Etling vs. Ole Miss pass defense: The Ed Orgeron Etling has been better than the Les Miles Etling.
In two games under Orgeron, he’s 30-for-48 for 492 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception. His 246 yards per game under the new coaching staff would be fifth in the SEC if extended through the whole season. Of course, the two opponents — Missouri and Southern Mississippi — may have something to do with that.
He could be able to continue the positive trend against an Ole Miss defense that is 11th in the league against the pass (233.2 yards per game). The Rebels do have a modestly successful pass rush led by one of the league’s better rushers, Marquis Haynes (4 sacks). LSU could be vulnerable as its offensive line has gone through some injuries.
And before we’d consider giving the LSU passing game an edge against any respectable defense, Etling needs to do it against better teams.
Edge: Ole Miss.
LSU RBs vs. Ole Miss rushing defense: This is just as much of a statistical mismatch as the other side of the ball. LSU is fourth in the league in rushing (228 yards per game) but second in yards per carry (6.4). And much of this was done without star Leonard Fournette, who should be back this week after missing two games with a high ankle sprain.
Ole Miss, on the other hand, is not as physical as it was a year ago and is 12th in the SEC in rushing defense (212.8 yards per game). Perhaps the Rebels miss Robert Nkemdiche more than we thought they would.
Again, the Tigers have an advantage in the running game. The question is, can the Ole Miss front hold its own well enough to slow the Tigers down without having to resort to stacking too many players in the box? Because lately, Etling and the LSU receivers are looking more capable of making opponents pay.
Edge: LSU
LSU WRs vs. Ole Miss secondary: Just as Etling has improved, so have the LSU receivers.
Malachi Dupre (18 receptions, 236 yards) is coming off his best game — 100 yards and 2 touchdowns — against Southern Miss. D.J. Chark (13, 224, 2 TDs) is emerging as a legitimate third receiver while Travin Dural (20, 198, 1) has been steady.
On the other side, Ole Miss has been reeling a bit since losing cornerback Ken Webster to injury in the opener against Florida State. And the Rebels’ corners are small — Webster’s replacement, Carlos Davis, is just 5-foot-8 and the other starter, Kailo Moore, is 5-foot-10 — going up against one of the bigger receiver units in the SEC.
If LSU’s run game is effective, the receivers should be able to make plays against Ole Miss. But the Tigers have been far from productive enough to consider this an advantage.
Edge: Even
Special Teams
Don’t look now, but LSU is becoming one of the better teams in the SEC at covering kicks. After freshman punter Josh Growden struggled early, he is now averaging 42.1 yards per punt, and the Tigers have gone from being one of the worst teams in the SEC in punt coverage to fifth. Meanwhile, LSU’s kick coverage team continues to lead the SEC, a testament to kicker Chris Gamble’s placements and a fast, aggressive coverage team.
So advantage LSU there as Ole Miss struggles in punt coverage and is average in kick coverage. Neither team has done much remarkably well with the return game.
Where Ole Miss has an advantage is with kicker Gary Wunderlich, who is 8-for-9 on the year while LSU’s Colby Delahoussaye is 4-for-6 with a couple of blocked PATs.
Edge: Even
