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Here’s something that has to stick in interim head coach Ed Orgeron’s craw as his LSU Tigers head into their regular season finale against Texas A&M tonight.
LSU is minus-1 in turnover margin for the year and the Tigers are coming off a 16-10 loss to Florida where two turnovers — one that ended a drive and one that set up a Florida field goal — were the difference in the game.
Meanwhile, A&M, has forced 24 turnovers , tied with South Carolina for the most in the SEC.
Orgeron spends every Wednesday practice focusing on turnovers, both protecting the ball on offense and forcing them on defense (something the Tigers did not do against Florida).
It’s an emphasis that hasn’t taken. If he doesn’t get the job — and with reports out that LSU has officially offered the job to Jimbo Fisher, it’s looking more and more like he won’t — that’s the area he can point to and say, “That’s why I didn’t get it.”
Can the Tigers force some Aggies mistakes tonight? Here’s a look at how they match up.
When LSU has the ball
QB Danny Etling vs. Texas A&M pass defense: Let’s face it, LSU won’t have the advantage in the passing game against pretty much any SEC defense, outside of maybe the weakest.
And among the weakest are the Aggies, who allow 248.3 passing yards a game, second most in the SEC. After a fast start, they’ve been vulnerable lately, giving up 338 yards to Ole Miss true freshman Shea Patterson in his debut and 398 yards to Josh Dobbs a few weeks before.
But LSU does not have the kind of passing game that strikes fear into defenses. Etling’s 14-for-25, 204-yard passing day was considered good against a good Florida pass defense. LSU is 12th in the league in passing.
So you have a not very good pass defense vs. a not very good passing team. The difference? A&M pass rush specialist Myles Garrett (8.5 sacks) will make Etling uncomfortable.
Edge: Texas A&M
LSU RBs vs. Texas A&M run defense: So, Leonard Fournette apparently did not make the trip to College Station.
Don’t think for a minute that means LSU will lack a rushing punch. That just means more emphasis will go to the healthier, and almost as dangerous, Derrius Guice.
Guice is eighth in the SEC in rushing (964 yards) despite playing a backup role in games where Fournette has been healthy enough to carry the starter’s load (Guice only had two carries against Alabama, for example). His per-carry average (8.0) is best among the SEC’s top rushers.
Texas A&M’s run defense has been good – the 4.1 yards per carry against the Aggies is the fifth-lowest in the league — and defensive coordinator John Chavis will commit to stopping the run, an M.O. LSU knows well considering he was Les Miles’ defensive coordinator for years before bolting for College Stations.
But the Aggies have been gashed for at least 280 yards in three of their past four SEC games. You have to be better than that to slow down Guice and company.
Edge: LSU
LSU WRs vs. Texas A&M pass defense: One of the interesting decisions this offseason for LSU will be whether junior receiver Malachi Dupre leaves for the NFL.
He’s considered one of the more talented receivers in his class, but his statistics (30 receptions, 404 yards, 2 TDs) don’t reflect that. He’s part of an underachieving group of receivers that includes Travin Dural (28-280) and D.J. Chark (21-360).
The Aggies have been good at pass coverage and have 12 interceptions. Justin Evans (4 interceptions, 6 passes broken up) is a ball-hawking safety and Nick Harvey (11 passes defended) and Priest Willis are quality corners.
A&M has had some rough games, but generally has had more consistently good pass defense than LSU has had a good passing game.
Edge: A&M
When Texas A&M has the ball
QB Trevor Knight (or Jake Hubenak) vs. LSU pass defense: The Aggies have a dilemma. Knight gives a better all-around package with his running threat, but if he starts (as reported), will they have to go out of their way to protect his bad shoulder?
The first order of business there would be to keep Arden Key, with his 10 sacks, away from the graduate senior.
But if they can protect Knight, he gives them a big-play threat in the passing game. He’s one of the least accurate passers in the league (his 52.5 percent completion percentage is similar to what got Brandon Harris benched at LSU), but with his ability to either make a throw down the field, or make a play with his legs, he’s a threat to LSU’s pass defense, one of the best in college football.
Buying time might be a key because opposing receivers have had a hard time breaking free from LSU’s solid secondary.
Edge: LSU
Texas A&M running game vs. LSU rush defense: When Kendell Beckwith, LSU’s 250-pound tackling machine at inside linebacker, went down with a knee injury against Florida last week, the Gators got mileage running right up the middle on a smallish Tigers front.
Texas A&M doesn’t appear quite equipped to do the same. The Aggies MO is more about spreading people and getting chunk plays from backs like Trayveon Williams (956 yards) or Keith Ford (483 yards).
With LSU backup linebacker Donnie Alexander, who is smaller and maybe quicker than Beckwith, getting the start, the matchup might actually work out for the Tigers. Despite allowing Jordan Scarlett to go for 106 yards, the Tigers are still the SEC’s second-best rush defense, allowing 115 yards per game and just 3.2 yards per carry.
But the question is, with Knight and his 583 yards rushing in the lineup and with Beckwith out, do things even up? And if Knight indeed starts, will he be limited in the running game to protect his ailing shoulder?
Edge: LSU
Texas A&M WRs vs. LSU DBs: This is going to be a fun matchup. Christian Kirk (69 receptions, 735 yards) and Josh Reynolds (46-834) form one of the most dangerous receiver tandems in college football.
They are going to go up against one of the better secondaries in college football. Tre’Davious White has been a solid anchor for LSU and Donte Jackson, despite giving up a 98-yard touchdown last week, has been steady. The surprise has been the emergence of senior Dwayne Thomas as an effective player since Kevin Toliver lost playing time in the secondary.
It’ll be fun to see some of the best receivers in the game going against some of the best corners. The difference? LSU has been a little more consistent.
Edge: LSU
Special Teams
If Kirk can’t get to LSU’s secondary, he might well get to the Tigers’ special teams. At 24.5 yards per return, he is the NCAA’s active career leader in punt returns. Tandem him with kick returner Evans (28 ypr) and the Aggies have some of the best return teams in college football.
Compare that to LSU, which covers well, but is remarkable at neither kickoff or punt coverage. A&M’s Daniel LaCamera has been a more accurate kicker than LSU’s Colby Delahoussaye and punter Shane Tripucka has outpunted LSU’s Josh Growden.
Edge: Texas A&M
