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Alabama football: Where do Tide fit in 1st CFP rankings? And does it matter?
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The first College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday night, and Alabama could find itself in a very precarious position. Not because the Tide haven’t earned a spot among the nation’s elite, but because of what’s happening around them – namely with Texas and Oklahoma.
Granted, given that 5 teams (Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, Washington) still sit undefeated, it’s unlikely that the Tide will start out among that elite group. But just how far down the list will the 7-1 Tide find themselves tonight when the first poll is announced?
It could get complicated now that Oklahoma lost to Kansas on Saturday. That’s because earlier, the Sooners beat Texas … and the Longhorns defeated the Tide. Those 3 teams all have 7-1 records. So, it would seem as though the pecking order would be Oklahoma, Texas and then Alabama.
However, judging by the latest AP poll, the Oklahoma loss to Kansas is holding more weight than its victory over Texas. The Sooners tumbled to No. 10 in the poll, while Texas moved ahead of them — despite the head-to-head loss — at No. 7.
Alabama’s head-to-head with Texas is having a bigger impact as the Tide comes in at No. 8, a spot behind the Longhorns.
So, it will be interesting to find out just how the Playoff committee sees it.
There’s no question that the Tide have improved measurably since the Week 2 setback, and if the game were replayed today at a neutral site there could very well be a different outcome. Will the committee take that into consideration?
If so, then where does Alabama land in that first reveal? Would a No. 6 spot, or perhaps even a No. 5 slot, be out of the question? Undefeated Washington, No. 5 in the AP Poll, has struggled mightily over the last couple of weeks after eking out a 3-point win over No. 6 Oregon. Since then, the Huskies barely got past Pac-12 also-rans Arizona State and Stanford.
Oregon has played well since that loss, so Alabama isn’t likely to jump the Ducks based on the eyeball test.
But if the committee members go by the eyeball test, they’d have to give credence to the Tide as well. Alabama shut down a high-powered Ole Miss offense and rolled past Tennessee while running the gauntlet of a SEC schedule that needs no explanation.
Is Alabama the best 1-loss team in the country? At this stage in the game one could argue for it given the body of work, something we hear the committee constantly promoting.
If Alabama is recognized as the best 1-loss team, behind the 5 undefeateds, then a No. 6 ranking could be forthcoming. However, given Washington’s recent struggles, the Tide might start out as high as No. 5.
Don’t expect the committee to rank them ahead of unbeatens Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Florida State.
No, a No. 5 slot appears to be the ceiling for Alabama, at least in the initial poll.
But don’t be too upset if the committee sees it in similar fashion to the AP Poll and starts the Tide out at No. 8. It’s only the first ranking, and with a month still left in the season, the Tide will only continue to climb over the final weeks as long as they continue to improve and keep winning.
A victory on Saturday against No. 13 LSU would go a long way in that endeavor. Road victories over Kentucky and Auburn would also serve to stack Alabama’s strength of schedule as well, although to a much lesser degree.
Bottom line, Alabama controls its destiny. Win out, and regardless of where the Tide starts out in tonight’s rankings, they would most assuredly qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Glenn Sattell is an award-winning freelance writer for Saturday Down South.
