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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Auburn. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas
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I don’t like to judge Year 1 coaches.
It’s not that they shouldn’t be judged for their mistakes. It’s that they’re often judged based on the scenarios that they inherit before their identity is established. They’re reacting to mistakes. Or in the case of someone like Larry Coker or Ryan Day, they’re starting on third base. I’d even argue that in a pre-transfer portal world, Gus Malzahn inherited a better roster than what the 2012 Auburn record suggested.
But in the case of Hugh Freeze, I didn’t want to judge him for what he inherited. Bryan Harsin’s missteps were well-documented. The offensive line was a disaster, there wasn’t a quarterback of the future, the pass-catcher spots were in desperate need of life and the defense couldn’t stop the run.
That’s a mess to inherit. That’s why it shouldn’t have come as a massive surprise that Freeze’s program looked like it was still in rebuild mode in Year 1. Yeah, the Iron Bowl went down to the wire. New Mexico State didn’t. A third consecutive losing season wasn’t necessarily a stunner.
But that was the mark of a Year 1 coach. Freeze hit the “reset” button in some ways and doubled down in others. He fired both coordinators and took back play-calling duties. He also overhauled the receiver room via the recruiting trail and the transfer portal. But instead of hitting the “reset” button on a transfer quarterback, he doubled down on Payton Thorne.
In other words, yeah, we can judge Freeze for Year 2. What will that entail?
Let’s dig into it with Auburn’s 2024 Crystal Ball:
Hugh Freeze, the play-caller, is back
Last year, Freeze got to the SEC Media Days and talked about how he once felt like he was one of the best play-callers in the sport, but that he no longer felt he was at that level. Then he watched a year of Philip Montgomery running the Auburn offense and decided to get back into it.
Am I a fan of head coaches operating as their own play-callers? In this era, no. Ideally, I’d like to see the vast majority of head coaches delegate that so that they can take on the CEO role that they need to be in the NIL/transfer portal era of the sport. Even Lane Kiffin, Josh Heupel and Kalen DeBoer have primary play-callers on their respective staffs.
But with Freeze, I wonder how much of that decision was just simply wanting to establish some sort of offensive identity so that eventually, he can bring in the right play-caller to build on that.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Whatever the case, Freeze will be tasked with turning around an offense that scored 22.6 points per game against Power 5 competition. Auburn had just 75 passes of 10 yards in a 13-game season, which was 15 fewer than the second-worst SEC team, Arkansas, which played 12 games with a coordinator who was fired midseason.
Bad? You bet. Can you put some of the blame on Harsin for not having any returning talent at receiver or on the offensive line? Definitely. But in Year 2, that’s in the past.
Freeze took ownership of this offense. He’ll get the blame if his roll of the dice on Thorne doesn’t yield significant improvement, especially after he spoke about not being willing to sign a portal QB for $1 million. Freeze is betting on himself perhaps as much as any coach in the SEC.
Let’s talk about those new pass-catchers
It’s a totally overhauled group. Good. It should be. Last year’s team lacked a big-play threat and a possession receiver, which is partially why Auburn had a QB rating of 116.6 against Power 5 competition. The Tigers only had 7 catches go for 40 or more yards. Even Vanderbilt had 9. And among SEC teams, only Texas A&M (1) had fewer 50-yard receptions than Auburn (2).
This year’s team should get a shot of life from both the transfer portal and the incoming freshmen. Transfers Robert Lewis (Georgia State) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Penn State) will be an upgrade over last year’s veterans. Lewis and Lambert-Smith will be able to stretch the field and win 1-on-1s while the decorated true freshmen duo of Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson learn the ropes.
Also, don’t sleep on tight end Rivaldo Fairweather becoming more of a fixture in the passing game, especially if the offensive line can hold up better without extra protection. His skill set is better suited to be catching passes than taking on defensive ends.
Auburn’s passing game just simply has to be better than it was last year. The question is if it can become one of the most improved areas in the SEC. If that’s the case, Year 2 will be much less painful to watch than Year 1.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Alabama A&M (W)
Hank Brown hype train, welcome back. Don’t get it twisted. It only gains momentum after Thorne and Co. roll early in a game that’s over by the break.
Week 2: vs. California (W)
If Cal running back Jaydn Ott finishes that game last year, does Freeze come back from Berkeley even less happy than he was? Probably. But that’s irrelevant. It’s worth remembering that Eugene Asante was brilliant for a group that held him to 4 yards per carry. I do think Ott’s presence can give Auburn problems up front, but this is a game where the new-look Auburn pass-catchers shine. Lambert-Smith and Thompson both get into the end zone with the improved passing game stealing the show.
Week 3: vs. New Mexico (W)
Wait a minute. New Mexico? Or New Mexico State? There’s a very big difference. If you’re telling me it’s just New Mexico and not New Mexico State, give me Auburn by 5 touchdowns. If it’s the latter … yikes.
Week 4: vs. Arkansas (W)
It’s unfair to default to that matchup in Fayetteville last year and just copy and paste the same result … but how can we ignore that? Even the lesser version of Thorne cleared out the Arkansas faithful by halftime, why can’t my projected improved version have plenty of success at Jordan-Hare? Arkansas turnovers allow Auburn to get out to a multi-score lead early that it doesn’t look back from.
Week 5: vs. Oklahoma (L)
This feels like such a pivotal game for programs that are determined to be part of the 12-team Playoff discussion. It wouldn’t be surprising if Jarquez Hunter and Gavin Sawchuk got rolling in the ground game and this turned into a matchup in which both teams struggled to get off blocks. So what tips the scales toward Oklahoma? Jackson Arnold’s legs. His ability to extend plays and keep drives alive deflates the raucous Jordan-Hare crowd. Oklahoma’s first SEC road win sends a loud message to the rest of the conference.
Week 6: at Georgia (L)
It’s not just that Georgia won 10 of the past 11 against Auburn. It’s that in 4 games vs. Auburn in Sanford Stadium, Kirby Smart’s defense allowed 33 combined points. The 2005 season was the last time that Auburn hit 25 points in Athens, and it’s also the last time the Tigers won in that building. That doesn’t turn around against this Georgia defense.
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: at Mizzou (W)
Just when everyone is praising Mizzou and writing off Auburn, the visiting Tigers pull off a significant upset in Columbia. The backfield depth is Auburn’s biggest weapon against a work-in-progress Mizzou defense. It’s not just Hunter breaking off big runs. Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb both look well-rested coming off the bye week while Mizzou looks like a program that just traveled across the country to play … UMass. A weird day at Faurot Field turns into one of the more head-scratching results of SEC play.
Week 9: at Kentucky (L)
A week after Auburn ran all over Mizzou, it runs into a brick wall in Lexington. Deone Walker and Co. flip the script on Auburn. Instead of Kentucky suffering from post-Florida overconfidence, Mark Stoops’ squad grinds out a hard-fought, low-scoring win. Dane Key and Barion Brown take turns slashing through the Auburn secondary late to fuel a 21-17 UK victory.
Week 10: vs. Vanderbilt (W)
Diego Pavia back at Jordan-Hare?!? Do I think Pavia would’ve ended up at Vanderbilt without last year’s unthinkable performance to lead New Mexico State past Auburn? I don’t. But this year, he won’t sneak up on the Tigers. At least I don’t think he will. In a rare battle of coaches who are calling their own plays, the home team gets the upper hand and avoids a second consecutive loss at the hands of Pavia.
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: vs. Louisiana-Monroe (W)
It’s an extra bye week of sorts for an Auburn team that needs to get healthy before the home stretch. That results in a slow start, but a convincing finish with Thorne lighting up the ULM defense for 300 yards and a highlight-reel touchdown from Coleman.
Week 13: vs. Texas A&M (W)
This was the game when Auburn fans realized they had a massive problem last year. Thorne was a walking sack against an A&M defensive front that dominated the battle in the trenches. But against an even better A&M defensive front, this is where we see Thorne make his case to be the SEC’s most improved player. He’s surgical. Balls fit into tight windows all over the place. Thorne is confident in the pocket, he scrambles effectively to extend drives and he’s smart in the red zone. Auburn earns a statement win by multiple scores to keep that outside Playoff path alive.
Week 14: at Alabama (L)
No gravedigger will be needed in Tuscaloosa. Not this time. However, Iron Bowl does have some 2014 vibes to it. Both defenses are at a bit of a loss throughout the second half. Jalen Milroe and Thorne trade touchdown drives, but a Deontae Lawson sack forces a fumble that Tim Smith picks up for a scoop-and-score that proves to be the difference in a 45-35 Alabama victory. The Tide get that all-important 10th win heading into an idle conference championship weekend.
2024 Projection: 8-4 (4-4), 8th in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? No
An 8-win regular season would be nothing to scoff at. Getting that year-to-year improvement offensively would make those 8 wins much more satisfying. Seeing the promise of the young receivers would bode well, as would the turnaround of Thorne in Freeze’s offense. There could be some — dare I say — momentum for Freeze at the end of the regular season.
For all the talk about the new-look offense, I project less defensive improvement. That’ll become the new Achilles’ heel for DJ Durkin, who didn’t inherit a ton of proven SEC talent. I don’t know that he’s the guy who steps in and rights the ship. By season’s end, I wonder if Freeze considers moving on to his third DC in as many seasons, but ultimately decides against it because of his desire to establish a foundation.
An 8-win regular season would indeed feel like a foundation year. That Iron Bowl could still have Playoff possibilities if Auburn is 8-3 with an opportunity to pick up a marquee win in Tuscaloosa. But for now, that’s not on the table.
Save that for 2025.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
