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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Georgia. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida
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Here’s everything you need to know about how far Georgia has come.
Last year, the Dawgs had a 13-win season and finished No. 4 in the AP Poll, which was higher than all but 2 Georgia teams from 1981-2016. And yet, the question heading into 2024 is whether the Dawgs can bounce back from a disappointing season.
To quote the great Rob Thomas, “let’s see how far we’ve come.”
It doesn’t take a brilliant football mind to understand that Georgia’s standard has been elevated in ways that even the loudest anti-Mark Richt folks couldn’t have imagined. The Dawgs came up short in their attempt to become the first team to repeat as national champions since the great Ed Widseth, AKA “Big Ed,” led Minnesota to a 3-peat in 1934-36. But history is still very much on the table for the Dawgs.
The only teams in the past 70 years that earned 3 national titles in 4 years were Nebraska (1994, 1995, 1997) and Alabama (2009, 2011, 2012). Tom Osborne and Nick Saban are the only 2 coaches who pulled off that feat in the post-integration world of college football.
The latter, in case you haven’t heard, is no longer coaching in college football. Is that significant for Georgia? You bet. With Saban playing golf and talking ball on ESPN/ABC airwaves, that means here’s the list of active coaches who beat Kirby Smart at their current school:
Yep, it’s an empty list. The empty bullet point was purely for dramatic effect.
Smart elevated the standard to absurd levels. He’s also held to a higher standard, which is why another summer of off-field issues has some questioning if those issues will catch up to Georgia on the field. We don’t know the answer to that. We do know that 39 consecutive regular-season victories and a 42-2 overall mark over the past 3 seasons suggest that Smart is the unquestioned leader of the sport.
Does that mean a “bounce-back season” is in store?
Let’s dig into it with Georgia’s 2024 Crystal Ball:
Yes, the UGA passing game can (and will) take another step
I banged the drum that Brock Bowers was the best tight end in the history of college football, and I thought Ladd McConkey had a real case to be a first-round pick (he just missed that). Those 2 guys are gone — as is Rara Thomas after his offseason arrest — yet I still believe Georgia’s passing game will take another step.
It’s not just that I love the pass-catching additions of receivers Colbie Young and London Humphreys, as well as pass-catching Florida transfer running back Trevor Etienne. Part of that prediction admittedly stems from the fact that both of those stars missed time last season. That forced Carson Beck to trust other options like Dominic Lovett and Dillon Bell, both of whom are back and set to take on an expanded role in the passing game in 2024.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Bell isn’t expected to be used in the running game like he was last year (he had 48 snaps at tailback and 1 at wild cat quarterback), but he figures to be a frequent Beck target on the outside. With McConkey and Bowers off to the NFL, Lovett should get even more snaps in his traditional role of slot receiver. That means he should look like the player who was one of the SEC’s best receivers at Mizzou in 2022, though with all due respect to a young Brady Cook, he wasn’t an old Beck.
Beck might not have gotten off to a blistering start, but you couldn’t help but see a more dynamic player as the season progressed. Go figure that it coincided with Bowers’ absence. By season’s end, Beck’s numbers were darn impressive:
- No. 8 in FBS in QB rating
- No. 6 in FBS in yards/attempt
- No. 4 in FBS in completion percentage
- No. 4 in FBS in 20-yard completions
- No. 4 in FBS in PFF passing grade
- No. 2 in FBS in QB rating vs. FBS teams w/ a winning record
Yet if you talk about Beck as QB1 in the 2025 class, it’s considered underwhelming. Why? He doesn’t have the mobility or arm talent of elite prospects at the position. Don’t confuse NFL Draft skepticism for a lack of upside. Beck has it. He did those things in his first season as a starter without his 2 primary targets for chunks of the season, and he did that with a new OC in Mike Bobo.
Bobo returns after he quieted doubters like me. The questions about him adapting the Todd Monken concepts have been answered. Would it have been nice if Georgia had schemed better in the second half against Alabama in the SEC Championship? Sure, but many men have fallen short against Saban. Beck has better days ahead. A Heisman Trophy season — he has the 2nd-best odds, by the way — might not be in the cards because of UGA’s habit of playing in lopsided games, but there’s a path for Beck to become one of the best players in the sport for the second consecutive season.
A vintage Georgia defense is on the table
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but I’m predicting UGA will have one of the nation’s best defenses. Stunning, I know. A group with nothing but top-20 defenses in the past 7 seasons will be elite. Wild. You can almost blindly say that about Smart, but it helps that even though Will Muschamp stepped down, Glenn Schumann is still calling plays as one of the elite defensive minds in the sport.
You could also point to the superstar players that Georgia returns at every level of the defense. Mykel Williams has first-round NFL Draft buzz in his shift to playing more outside linebacker while Naz Stackhouse is a preseason All-SEC guy on the defensive line and Malaki Starks is an All-American safety. That’s not including the promising inside linebacker CJ Allen, who emerged as a star down the stretch last year after Jamon Dumas-Johnson got hurt against Mizzou.
Georgia has dudes. That, we know. What we don’t know is whether a lack of a true shutdown corner will make for some 2022-like ups and downs. Daylen Everette’s progression as a Year 2 starter will be a popular topic of discussion, as will the play of first-time starter Julian Humphrey, who logged 168 snaps as UGA’s third outside corner.
Then again, it’s Smart. As in, the guy who had 11 defensive backs selected in the past 4 NFL Drafts. Outside of Saban, nobody in America is better at developing talent at that position. That’s why it feels like a potential weakness that Georgia can overcome.
Maybe it’s not fair to say that the 2021 Georgia defense is the bar for the 2024 group to meet, but having a top-5 defense in America — something that Smart did in each of the last 3 seasons — should be on the table.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Clemson in Atlanta (W)
Unlike 2021’s season-opener in Charlotte, I don’t believe it’ll be particularly close. Maybe it won’t quite be 2022 Oregon levels of dominance, but I don’t anticipate Cade Klubnik consistently finding time to get the ball to an unproven group of receivers. In a building that Georgia is plenty comfortable playing in, Beck and the Dawgs get the bad taste of the SEC Championship out of their mouths with a blistering start. A 3-touchdown lead at the break is more than enough to allow UGA to pull the starters in the 4th quarter in a comfortable victory to kick off 2024.
Week 2: vs. Tennessee Tech (W)
Does Gunner Stockton get an entire quarter? Easily. Does he attempt 10 passes like he did against FSU in the Orange Bowl? Eh, he won’t get there easily. But this game will be all sorts of easy for UGA.
Week 3: at Kentucky (W)
The Brock Vandagriff Bowl will dominate the discussion leading into this one. By day’s end, however, Vandagriff will get an all-too-real reminder that while Kentucky gave him the opportunity that he didn’t get at Georgia, that UGA defense he faced the past 3 years was pretty darn good. Williams has his first multi-sack game of the young season and Smael Mondon forces a fumble of Vandagriff early in what turns out to be a long day for the UK offense. Georgia avoids Vandagriff getting the last laugh.
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: at Alabama (W)
If Saban were still on that sideline, give me Alabama. Even UGA fans can acknowledge that Smart’s 1-5 record against the G.O.A.T. was real. But in the early stages of Kalen DeBoer figuring out Alabama’s 2024 offensive identity, UGA’s defense will stroll into Tuscaloosa with some bad intentions. It’s not a complete beatdown, but it’s the first time that turnovers doom the Tide. An Allen pressure on Jalen Milroe forces a pick-6 and in a role reversal from last year’s SEC Championship, this time it’s UGA that holds onto a late lead and refuses to give the ball back to Alabama. The Dawgs win a thriller in Tuscaloosa.
Week 6: vs. Auburn (W)
It’s not just that Georgia won 10 of the past 11 against Auburn. It’s that in 4 games vs. Auburn in Sanford Stadium, Smart’s defense allowed 33 combined points. The 2005 season was the last time that Auburn hit 25 points in Athens, and it’s also the last time the Tigers won in that building. That doesn’t turn around against this Georgia defense.
Week 7: vs. Mississippi State (W)
I won’t be surprised if Blake Shapen comes out firing against Georgia after a pair of physical rivalry games. Perhaps it’s a sleepy start in Athens with Texas on the horizon, which yields a classic Smart sideline blowup. But eventually, Georgia wakes up and finds the answers to counter the Bulldogs’ up-tempo attack. The ground game pulls the Dawgs out of an early rut to avoid the upset.
Week 8: at Texas (L)
Yes, this one lives up to the billing. Both teams trade blows in what feels like a true heavyweight fight. It’s the type of game that never sees a deficit get beyond a touchdown with big plays on both sides of the ball. So then what proves to be the deciding factor? Steve Sarkisian scheming in the passing game late. In an extremely uncharacteristic sequence of events, UGA leaves Isaiah Bond uncovered after a miscommunication in the secondary. He waltzes in for a go-ahead touchdown to give Texas a 31-28 victory that has everyone begging for a rematch.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: vs. Florida in Jacksonville (W)
Can we call this an Etienne revenge game? Eh, maybe not. But in a loud statement, Etienne gets 23 touches as the backbone of the Georgia attack. After one of his touchdowns, Etienne delivers a Gator chomp that earns him a 15-yard penalty, and we get a chippy 4th quarter in Jacksonville. After that promising start up front, Florida struggles to protect Graham Mertz. He plays behind schedule far too often and Florida’s 1-dimensional attack is ineffective against Allen and the Georgia defense. For the 4th consecutive year, the Dawgs cruise in Jacksonville.
Week 11: at Ole Miss (W)
The additions that Ole Miss made on the defensive line will absolutely help bridge the gap between itself and Georgia. Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen will be steady forces for an improved defensive line. But that didn’t necessarily answer the other question — are we sure that Lane Kiffin’s offense can move the ball against Georgia? Because last year, Ole Miss didn’t have a touchdown drive in the final 44 minutes. I don’t suspect that’ll repeat in Oxford, but I do expect Georgia to get enough stops to pull out an impressive road victory.
Week 12: vs. Tennessee (W)
For all the great things that Josh Heupel has done in his 3 seasons at Tennessee, none of those came against Georgia. In the 2nd and 3rd quarters of those 3 matchups, the Vols have 6 total points (2 field goals). Heupel actually led a scoring drive in each of Tennessee’s 3 opening drives. After that, however, his teams had a combined 23 points against UGA. The 2 touchdowns both came in the final 5 minutes when the Vols were already down at least 3 scores. I’m gonna trust that once again, Kirby Smart will be the one who makes the right adjustments and UGA will take over after the first quarter.
Week 13: vs. UMass (W)
UMass closes the season with 3 SEC matchups in its final 6 games. Should we consider the Minutemen an honorary SEC team for 2024? Eh, let’s wait and see if Don Brown’s squad can surpass 10 points against any of them. For their sake, hopefully they do so before coming to Athens because that’s not happening there.
Week 14: vs. Georgia Tech (W)
I know that Georgia has a 6-game winning streak in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, but Brent Key had Georgia Tech within 1 score in the final 21 minutes each of the past 2 games. Yeah, you could argue that UGA didn’t bust out all of its tricks ahead of those SEC Championship trips, but still. Don’t sleep on Haynes King coming into Athens and playing like a guy with nothing to lose. His mobility will give the Dawgs some problems early, but a ho-hum 2-touchdown victory will essentially clinch a UGA Playoff berth before traveling to Atlanta for the 4th consecutive year.
2024 Projection: 11-1 (7-1), 2nd in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? Yes
To be clear, I put 2nd in the SEC for the regular season. I have the Dawgs avenging the regular-season loss to Texas with a victory in the SEC Championship … and then another victory against Texas in the national championship.
What a fitting storyline that would be. Like, Georgia finally loses a regular-season game for the first time since 2020, but everyone eventually forgets about it because UGA wins the rematch AND the grudge match. That would serve as a reminder that it’s Smart’s world and we’re just living in it.
You can argue that UGA might have moments in which we need to find out if Beck can channel his inner Stetson Bennett IV, or that perhaps this passing game will lack an alpha at key points. Shoot, maybe you can wonder about the aforementioned outside corner spots. But it’s hard to find the flaws with Georgia. Nobody has fewer weaknesses in the sport.
Injuries can certainly change that, but who has more depth than Georgia? Remember, it’s not just that Smart cranks out top-2 classes on an annual basis. The Dawgs are No. 28 in FBS in percentage of returning production. There’s reason to believe this group could be the most well-rounded that Smart had.
We’ve seen how far Georgia has come. Perhaps the better question is obvious.
How far will Georgia go?
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
