Predicting every SEC team’s final record after Week 12: Georgia brings chaos, Carolina brings clarity

In Week 12, every SEC game is essentially considered in whether it brings chaos (Tennessee/Georgia) or clarity (Carolina/Missouri or LSU/Florida).

Maybe we weren’t wrong in calling for a league half-full of 10-2 teams, but it’s certainly complicated to sort out.

Have fun with that, CFP committee.

Meanwhile, in the regular-season record context, here’s our updated prediction of how every team will finish the regular season.

Texas (11-1, 7-1 after beating Arkansas 20-10)

One of the strong points of Texas’ season is that it has demonstrated the ability to win in different ways. Had the Texas defense allowed Arkansas to be near its normal productivity, this game would have gone down to the wire. Instead, Arkansas was pesky, but Texas’ defense was never going to lose this game. A&M could make things interesting in Week 14, but we’ll stick with the Horns on top.

Georgia (10-2, 6-2 after beating Tennessee 31-17)

OK, so the Georgia falling out of the CFP thing was an overrated narrative. They’re certainly back in now, and have created absolute chaos within the SEC, the quasi-official league of 6-2 conference teams. Seriously, this is going to be one heck of a tie-breaker. The quality of Georgia’s losses (2 other CFP contenders) and the strength of their schedule should get them an edge.

Alabama (10-2, 6-2 after 52-7 win over Mercer)

Neither Oklahoma nor Auburn has an offense capable of troubling the Tide. That head-to-head loss to Tennessee could hurt in a massive 10-2 pile-up, but the win over Georgia helps in the same context.

Ole Miss (10-2, 6-2 after week off)

Suddenly, Florida on the road next week looks more imposing, but Ole Miss is in great shape to go 10-2. They’ve been on the outside of the CFP, but they align well to just hope a couple teams ahead of them crash and burn, and Tennessee might have started the process. Still, it’s 5 teams competing for what will probably be 4 Playoff spots.

Tennessee (10-2, 6-2 after 31-17 loss to Georgia)

Tennessee had a chance to both clinch their CFP spot and essentially end Georgia’s chances. Instead, the Vols let the Dawgs off the mat. This whole 10-2 pile-up could come down to whose loss is worst — and Ole Miss’ loss to Kentucky is probably worse than either UT’s loss to Arkansas or Alabama’s loss to Vandy.

Texas A&M (9-3, 6-2 after beating New Mexico State 38-3)

The Aggies would have to best Texas to work their way into the CFP field … but with a nonconference loss, they can still gum up the SEC title game in a colorful way. Seriously, is it too early to start asking for some sort of advanced map to explain this? Wouldn’t it be better to NOT play in the game as a 2-loss team not looking to lose the way off the CFP bubble?

Missouri (9-3, 5-3 after 34-30 loss to South Carolina)

On the other hand, Missouri is now out of the SEC picture and the CFP picture. Finishing with Mississippi State and Arkansas at home offers a relatively clear path to 9-3. It’s not impossible that a 9-3 SEC team goes to the Playoff, but it looks less likely and if it happens, it won’t be Missouri.

LSU (8-4, 4-4 after 27-16 loss to Florida)

With a 4th loss, LSU is out of anything except the hot seat for coaches, which is warming by the minute. A trio of consecutive losses flushed a 6-1 start down the toilet. If the offense doesn’t wake up, Vandy or Oklahoma could give them a game in these last 2 weeks.

South Carolina (8-4, 5-3 after 34-30 win over Missouri)

OK, so it’s time to officially conclude that 9-3 is far from impossible here. In fact, it took a quick check of the schedule, which confirmed that the Clemson game is on the road, before the move wasn’t just made to a flat 9-3 prediction. We’re 60/40 against Carolina in that one on the road, but they’ve overcome bigger odds. A 5-0 November, if Carolina can pull it off, is an amazing accomplishment.

Vanderbilt (6-6, 4-4 after week off)

LSU is the easiest path to a 7th win, but surely the Tigers’ offense will be shamed into playing better next week. If not, Vandy is entirely capable of picking up another win … although it’s still a little remote to the point of actual prediction.

Arkansas (6-6, 3-5 coming off 20-10 loss to Texas)

Arkansas’ defense did a great job thwarting Texas. The Hogs will clinch bowl eligibility next week vs. Louisiana Tech. If they play that well at Missouri, the Razorbacks will pick up a 7th win. Still, it’s on the road and the preliminary instinct here is to stop at 6-6 for the Hogs.

Florida (6-6, 3-5 after 27-16 win over LSU)

Looks like the Billy Napier vote of confidence will stick. Nobody can say the Gators didn’t earn their way to potential bowl eligibility. Ole Miss is probably still an awful lot hope for … but we did say the same thing about LSU last week.

Oklahoma (5-7, 1-7 after week off)

The stumbling of LSU makes that game a little more plausible than it was a week ago, but not plausible enough to call for a 6th win for this bunch.

Kentucky (4-8, 1-7 after 48-6 win over Murray State)

Both Kentucky and Auburn played awful teams that disguised their putrid offenses and gave them another week to dream of bowl eligibility. Neither dream will survive Week 13, as Texas isn’t going to stumble over a punchless Wildcats group on its way to the CFP.

Auburn (4-8, 1-7 after 48-14 win over ULM)

See above. While Auburn has a better shot at Texas A&M than Kentucky does at the Longhorns, the end result is the same. Dire seasons, and it’s hard to be too optimistic about either program in the short-term future.

Mississippi State (2-10, 0-8 after week off)

The Bulldogs will keep fighting and competing, but they’ll also keep losing.

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.