Predicting every SEC team’s final record after the wildest Week 6 ever

A few decades back, that poet of his generation “Weird Al” Yankovic dropped one of the most profound truths of human existence — “everything you know is wrong.” While Al probably wasn’t looking ahead to Week 6 of the 2024 college football season, he certainly could have.

Three SEC top-10 squads fell … all in league-on-league crime.

And Vanderbilt, yes, Vanderbilt stood tallest on a day of shocking upsets. Everything we knew was indeed wrong.

But here’s where we think the squads of the SEC will finish the regular season … at least for the moment.

Texas (11-1, 5-0 and off this week)

The Longhorns certainly picked a good week to not be playing football. Most of their top competition got a substantial resume ding today. The Longhorns still have Oklahoma, Georgia and a resurgent A&M team on their schedule. After Saturday, nobody should be looking past anybody. Texas is great, but they’re still probably going to lose a game. There was temptation to drop them to 10-2, because it’s far from sure that anybody can escape the SEC without a couple of losses this year.

Georgia (10-2, 4-1 after being Auburn 31-13)

Georgia was the only SEC power this week that looked more or less like itself. It’s unsurprising after that tough Alabama loss to see the Bulldogs back up and fighting. But with Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee ahead on the schedule, it’s unrealistic to not expect another loss someplace along the line.

Ole Miss (10-2, 5-1 after beating South Carolina 27-3)

Like Georgia, Ole Miss made good use of the motivational fuel of a tough loss. Their game with LSU next week will vault the winner into CFP contention and the loser pretty much out of it. The Rebels look more like the real deal, certainly on defense. Georgia and Oklahoma are still ahead, but best the Tigers and the Rebels are looking toward 10-2 and a very legitimate CFP shot.

Alabama (9-3, 4-1 after losing to Vanderilt 40-35)

Is this overreaction? Maybe so, but for a team that lost at Vanderbilt, road trips to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma all look like possible stumbling blocks. Kalen DeBoer’s team got its first taste of what Nick Saban long ago dubbed “rat poison,” and their brush with media expectations left them limping back home with an ugly loss. The best thing Alabama can do is respond like Georgia did this week — put the loss in the rear-view mirror and rediscover a commitment to defense that was lacking this week.

Tennessee (9-3, 4-1 after losing to Arkansas 19-14)

The same argument could apply to the Vols. This game, in some ways, looked like Ole Miss last week — the offense has put up a ton of points against weak and overrated foes and couldn’t score points when they needed to against a legitimate SEC defense. Arkansas held the ball for over 35 minutes and cobbled together enough plays to not only win, but to outgain UT by 99 yards. Alabama and Georgia are probably both licking their chops at an offense that struggled to pass protect against the Hogs.

Missouri (9-3, 4-1 after losing to Texas A&M 41-10)

The Tigers didn’t just lose, they got blown off the field. For the team that had by far the easier path to a CFP berth, this wasn’t a good day. Alabama and Oklahoma are still on the schedule, and frankly, the Tigers looked more likely to end up 8-4 than 10-2, based on their offense’s continued struggles.

LSU (9-3, 4-1 and off this week)

These Tigers probably benefitted from not playing, as about half of the teams ahead of them had major gaffes in Week 6. As noted, the Ole Miss/LSU game will make somebody a contender and will shut somebody else out of the CFP talk (absent more insane upsets). Bama, A&M and Oklahoma are also still ahead on the schedule.

Texas A&M (9-3, 5-1 after beating Missouri 41-10)

Could the entire SEC go 9-3? Well, it feels kind of like that. We said a week ago that if A&M beat Mizzou, it was staring at a 9-win season. If we have 5 9-3 SEC teams, as projected, then a couple of them are probably Playoff-bound. A&M is certainly not at the bottom of that potential bunch after a massive “taking care of business” win.

Kentucky (8-4, 3-2 and off this week)

Kind of a tough week for Kentucky. Vanderbilt is obviously nobody’s fool. The path to 8 wins is still there for the Wildcats, but it better be the Kentucky team that beat Ole Miss, not the one that South Carolina whipped like a rented mule.

Oklahoma (7-5, 4-1 and off this week)

The back end of the season remains challenging. The up and down nature of Week 6 might have made us a bit more optimistic about their chances for finding a 7th win. Time will tell.

Arkansas (6-6, 4-2 after beating Tennessee 19-14)

There’s a temptation to overreact, but that schedule is still a doozy. They’ll beat Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State. But a 7th win is probably going to have to be Missouri. That’s possible, but at this point, Mizzou has to stumble again before that could be termed likely.

Auburn (5-7, 2-4 after losing to Georgia 31-13)

Even a 5th win is pretty optimistic here. Kentucky? Texas A&M at home? This could really be a 4-8 team, and the continued offensive inefficiency makes that case pretty easily.

Florida (5-7, 3-2 after beating UCF 24-13)

Even in victory, Florida still looks pretty rough. The game with Kentucky is pretty clearly the path to bowl eligibility, but the Wildcats have won the past 3 in that series. Even as awful as Florida State is, Florida still has to win another besides that one and Kentucky. Currently, it looks more like Kentucky or another win (LSU?).

Vanderbilt (5-7, 3-2 after beating Alabama 40-35)

It’s really tempting to think this Vandy team finds a 6th win. It’s just hard to do. Ball State should be safe, but after that, where are 2 more wins? Auburn, South Carolina and Kentucky are all possibilities, but Vandy seems more likely to go 1-2 than 2-1. It’s still a big jump, and after this week, nothing is impossible for these guys.

South Carolina (5-7, 3-2 after losing to Ole Miss 27-3)

A brutal loss for a Gamecocks team about to face 3 consecutive ranked foes. Wofford should be an easy win, Vandy is certainly winnable, but even if that works out, Carolina has to get past Missouri, A&M, or Clemson for a 6th win. Mizzou looked the most beatable of those teams, but that still feels like a big ask for the Gamecocks.

Mississippi State (2-10, 1-4 and off this week)

The UMass game looks pleasant, but that’s about all there is to look forward to for the Bulldogs.

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.