SEC Week 10 brought plenty of epic matchups that helped clarify an ever-shifting SEC.
Plenty of teams played their way onto the CFP bubble (Texas, Oklahoma), some played their way temporarily off (Tennessee, maybe Vanderbilt). Auburn got its coach fired.
As we try to unpack it all, here’s how we see the SEC shaping up after Week 10.
Note that below entries include the current records and then the projected records of each team.
Alabama (7-1, 11-1)
Alabama was off in Week 10, but there’s nothing to change the big picture with the Tide. Oklahoma now looks like the biggest challenge, but that game will be at home and the Tide have an excellent shot to go on and run the table.
Arkansas (2-7, 2-10)
Arkansas looks unlikely to pick up another win. The Hogs seemed to have Mississippi State beaten, but road trips to LSU and Texas aren’t too cheery, and Mizzou will certainly have more to play for in the finale than Arkansas will.
Auburn (4-5, 5-7)
Auburn found a way to lose at home to Kentucky. That pretty much pulls the plug on the season and it does the same on the Tiger tenure of Hugh Freeze. Mercer will be a win, but Vandy and Alabama won’t be.
Florida (3-5, 5-7)
Florida had a heartbreaker of a loss against Georgia. While the Gators are still probable to beat Kentucky and maybe Florida State, it’s hard to envision a world where they win at Ole Miss or beat Tennessee. Florida certainly demonstrated that it hasn’t quit, but the Gators just weren’t quite strong enough offensively to have a credible season.
Georgia (7-1, 11-1)
Georgia hung in and gutted out an ugly win. There’s not another major threat left on the schedule. Texas is surging, but that game is in Athens. Georgia Tech had looked dangerous, but that defense certainly had some issues in Week 10. The smart pick is still Georgia winning out the rest of the way through the regular season.
Kentucky (3-5, 4-8)
Kentucky finally got off the SEC losing streak, but it’s still hard to see this season ending well. Florida has its issues, but Kentucky would still have to pull that one out, outlast Tennessee Tech, and then beat either Vandy or Louisville on the road to reach 6-6. Florida could be beatable, but the third leg of that trifecta would make even a longshot horse backer uneasy.
LSU (5-3, 7-5)
LSU didn’t do anything to change its prognosis with a week off. Arkansas and WKU at home should be wins. Alabama and Oklahoma on the road should be losses. If LSU won out, it’s not impossible to have a Playoff conversation, but that just doesn’t seem realistic after the last 2 weeks.
Ole Miss (8-1, 11-1)
Ole Miss took care of business in Week 10 and then should have an easy run through the remainder of the regular season. The Citadel, Florida, and Mississippi State shouldn’t present any sort of threat to an 11-win season… which is certainly far from the norm in Oxford in the pre-Lane Kiffin era.
Mississippi State (5-4, 5-7)
Mississippi State did a phenomenal job of pulling out a fourth-quarter comeback at Arkansas. The remaining schedule is simply not kind. Georgia and Ole Miss are almost outside the realm of possibility, and at Missouri is the most winnable of the three games, but it’s the one on the road. State certainly has a shot, but they seem likely to end up just short of a .500 season and bowl eligibility.
Missouri (6-2, 8-4)
Mizzou got a welcome week off, but with Beau Pribula apparently out, it has a tough path ahead of it. It’s tough to see a situation in which the Tigers win at Oklahoma or against Texas A&M. That said, Mississippi State and Arkansas certainly seem beatable, which is why their prediction sits at 8-4.
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Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3)
Oklahoma picked up a crucial win in Knoxville, but now has a week off ahead of a trip to Alabama. The Sooners will likely take down Mizzou and LSU at home, but will 9-3 be enough to claim a CFP spot? The verdict is most certainly still out, but it’s worth watching down the season’s stretch run.
South Carolina (3-6, 5-7)
South Carolina fought gamely, but just couldn’t come up with a win. After a week off, a road trip to Texas A&M will likely end any shot at a winning season or a bowl bid. Coastal and Clemson are certainly beatable, but it’s also fair to wonder if motivation will drift for the Gamecocks with another likely loss ahead.
Tennessee (6-3, 9-3)
Tennessee still likely has a battle in the finale against Vanderbilt, but even with likely wins over New Mexico State and Florida, the loss to Oklahoma hurts because it’s another 9-3 team with CFP ambitions that now owns the head-to-head matchup with the Vols. In short, it now becomes a pretty tangled path for Tennessee to play its way into the Playoff.
Texas (7-2, 8-4)
Texas certainly showed signs of life in taking down Vandy, but they’ve still got to play Georgia on the road and A&M at home. A split of the 2 (with a win over Arkansas in between) would put Texas at 9-3 and give it a plausible CFP path. The problem is that both games still look like potential losses for the Longhorns.
Texas A&M (8-0, 12-0)
A&M had a week off, but given how well the Aggies played, after what should be a fairly easy path at Missouri and at home against South Carolina and Samford, the Aggies look like a slight favorite to win the finale at Texas and wrap up a perfect SEC season. It’s been an impressive run and A&M has quietly been as good as any team not named Ohio State.
Vanderbilt (7-2, 9-3)
Vanderbilt still very much has a CFP shot. Even with the loss to Texas, the Commodores get home games against Auburn and Kentucky and then go to Knoxville for a massive game. Vandy seems to control its own CFP fate, while Tennessee probably needs that game to work back into the conversation. For the moment, Vandy seems likely to take the loss on the road, but it’s certainly a situation worth watching.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
