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Predicting every SEC team’s final record after Week 3: Should UGA and Mizzou be worried?
By Joe Cox
Published:
Week 3 in the SEC was probably more notable for the upsets that didn’t happen than for any that did. Georgia and Missouri each flirted with disaster, but each avoided it. Should that be disconcerting moving ahead? Not to give away too much, but the answer probably lies in the respective schedules of the teams.
Again, we’re still too early in the schedule to scout out every particular game, but the general overall tenor of SEC Week 3 leaves us predicting the following regular season marks for the squads of the SEC:
Georgia: 11-1 (3-0, beat Kentucky 13-12)
Well, that was underwhelming. Georgia gained just 262 total yards of offense and needed a touchdown and a pair of field goals to edge Kentucky. But beyond uninspiring, this Georgia team is starting to rack up an impressive roster of injuries.
Don’t forget the schedule. UGA has to go to Bama (next, following a bye), Texas and Ole Miss. This 13-12 squeaker was the easy game of the Georgia road schedule. That performance, combined with the injuries, gives us pause on a perfect season projection. We’ll drop the Dawgs to 11-1, although it certainly remains to be seen which one.
Texas: 11-1 (3-0, beat UTSA 56-7)
This game never was going to tell much about anything. Texas clearly overmatched UTSA. The most interesting thing — good or bad — was the work of Arch Manning, who accounted for 5 touchdowns and was brilliant. What could be bad? If Quinn Ewers ever struggled, the calls for a QB switch will be loud. But Texas’s schedule is pretty light. Other than Georgia, there’s nobody else with more than a puncher’s chance at the Horns.
Ole Miss: 10-2 (3-0, beat Wake Forest 40-6)
We’re still learning about the Rebels, who might not be challenged until the Georgia game. On the other hand, with the up and down nature of the SEC, those first 3 games in league play (Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU) need watching before an 11-1 projection could be rendered. Ole Miss has been great. But they also haven’t played a meaningful snap.
Alabama: 10-2 (3-0, beat Wisconsin 42-10)
After projecting a 9-3 finish last week, the Tide got bumped back up to 10-2. Part of that was based on the dominant performance at Wisconsin, and part was based on the schedule they face. After the coming bye week, three of the next five matchups include Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri. Those three will likely tell the tale of the season. At this point, a 1-2 or 2-1 mark seem more likely than 3-0. But 0-3 is pretty likely off the table, and 2-1 feels more plausible than 1-2.
Missouri: 10-2 (3-0, beat Boston College 27-21)
This was a fairly underwhelming performance. The continued consistency issues with the offense manifested themselves at times, and self-inflicted penalty issues could be severe. But the Tigers didn’t get moved down, because they still have one of the SEC’s softer schedules. Other than their game at Alabama, the next toughest game left is probably at Texas A&M. Swap Mizzou’s schedule for a tougher one and 9-3 or 8-4 could be in the cards.
Tennessee: 10-2 (3-0, beat Kent State 71-0)
Every meaningless touchdown in nonconference games will come to nothing if Tennessee doesn’t execute when the chips are down. Georgia and Alabama could be the only real tests for the Vols. The Oklahoma game is interesting, but unless the Sooners improve drastically, it looks like a solid UT win. If so, this 10-2 is entirely reasonable and 11-1 could be plausible.
LSU: 8-4 (2-1, beat South Carolina 36-33)
This run defense is an issue. Even spending half the game without starter LaNorris Sellers at QB, South Carolina rushed for 243 yards against LSU. The Tigers don’t look ready to match up with Ole Miss or Alabama, and at the moment another league loss somewhere along the line seems likely.
Texas A&M: 8-4 (2-1, beat Florida 33-20)
This was a solid week of work by A&M. The remaining A&M road schedule (Mississippi State, South Carolina, Auburn) isn’t overwhelming. Even if home games with Mizzou, LSU and Texas are tough challenges, A&M seems to have worked its way back to the top of the middle of the SEC.
Oklahoma: 7-5 (3-0, beat Tulane 34-19)
A second consecutive week of competitive football against ho-hum non-league foes was not impressive. The Sooners seem likely to struggle with elite SEC teams. Losing at least 3 games against Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri and Alabama seems likely. Beating Tennessee next week would improve the projection, but at the moment, Oklahoma looks like a 3-5 SEC team.
Auburn: 6-6 (2-1, beat New Mexico 45-19)
The final score was misleading. Auburn led 17-13 at half and 31-19 early in the fourth quarter against an awful New Mexico team. Hank Brown looked solid at QB, but it remains to be seen how he’ll do against legitimate competition. Auburn gave up 291 passing yards. For now, that keeps the Tigers at 6-6.
South Carolina: 6-6 (2-1, lost to LSU 36-33)
This was a tough loss after a 17-0 early advantage. The big story here was the injury to LaNorris Sellers. If he’s OK, South Carolina will be a very good team battling to make a bowl. If not, they’re just not good enough to survive a brutal schedule. After next week’s game against Akron and a bye, Ole Miss and Alabama come up next.
Kentucky: 6-6 (1-2, lost to Georgia 13-12)
Signs of life came around for Kentucky, mostly on the defense. The offense is still somewhere between stilted and awful. But with a likely win next week against Ohio and a home game against Vandy, Kentucky could well be 3-3 heading into key games at Florida and at home against Auburn. Those 2 games determine where the season could end up, between 4-8 or 7-5.
Arkansas: 5-7 (2-1, beat UAB 37-27)
Yes, it was a win. But Taylen Green didn’t look like a great passer this week, and Arkansas’ running game won’t have a huge impact against SEC defenses. Next week’s game at Auburn is a chance for one of those teams to make a move up in the rankings. Texas A&M and Tennessee the following 2 weeks make it an especially crucial battle for the Hogs.
Florida: 4-8 (1-2, lost to Texas A&M 33-20)
Brutal game for the Gators. A&M led 33-7 late in the third quarter as Billy Napier stood by Graham Mertz. Florida was outrushed 310-52, and that’s just not sustainable football. Lose next week’s game at Mississippi State and the projection might fall to 3-9. There’s just not a tenable path to 6 wins here anymore.
Vanderbilt: 3-9 (2-1, lost to Georgia State 36-32)
This is a bad, bad loss. Vandy will still beat Ball State, but projecting even 1 SEC win could be a bridge too far. Road games at Kentucky or Auburn are possible and a home matchup with South Carolina could work out late, but frankly, the ‘Dores have to go back to 3-9, at least for the moment.
Mississippi State: 3-9 (1-2, lost to Toledo 41-17)
Other than UMass, there’s not a ton of wins sitting there for the Bulldogs. Home games with Florida and Arkansas are probably the best chances. We’ll be kind and project a 1-1 split. But a team that loses at home by 24 to a MAC team isn’t getting anywhere near a bowl game.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
