Predicting every SEC team’s final record after Week 9: How high is A&M’s ceiling?

SEC Week 9 hasn’t done much to clarify a topsy-turvy season of SEC football. Texas A&M and Bama had weeks to remember, and Arkansas showed more offensive potency. But LSU struggled, Mizzou looked lost, and Vanderbilt hung around again with one of the nation’s best teams.

Here’s how we think every SEC team finishes the regular season after Week 9.

Georgia (11-1, 6-1 after week off)

It might not have been the worst week to be off. Georgia looks increasingly likely to finish 11-1. Ole Miss doesn’t seem to have the consistency to take down the Dawgs. Tennessee is the biggest remaining challenge, but UT hasn’t been particularly explosive and UGA seems more likely to best them in a grinder of a game.

Texas (11-1, 7-1 after 27-24 win over Vanderbilt)

It wasn’t really a definitive week for the Longhorns. They avoided a devastating loss, played Quinn Ewers at QB, and still left themselves some possible big work ahead. Those road games at Texas A&M and Arkansas look much more daunting after Week 9. Texas is still one of the SEC’s top teams, but the margin isn’t as fat as we might have thought.

Tennessee (10-2, 6-1 after week off)

The Vols were off as well, and suddenly they’ve got a pretty easy next 2 weeks coming up. Kentucky and Mississippi State wouldn’t beat UT in Knoxville if they could combine forces and portal in alumni. Road games at Georgia and (gulp) Vandy are legitimate challenges. We’ll take the Vols to win the state rivalry, finish 10-2 and stroll into the Playoff.

Texas A&M (10-2, 7-1 coming off 38-23 win over LSU)

A&M is officially very much in the Playoff picture now, and their season-ending battle with Texas looks like an epic battle. The Longhorns get the early nod to win that game and create a possible cluster of teams with 7-1 SEC records to puzzle out tie-breaker scenarios. Incidentally, that Mike Elko hiring is looking pretty smart right about now.

Alabama (10-2, 6-2 after 34-0 win over Missouri)

No, Missouri isn’t very good. But Alabama seemed to find its identity, particularly on defense. All of a sudden, that likely loss to LSU might instead just be a win. A 10-2 Alabama team doesn’t have a spot in the SEC title game, but that might be the better for their potential CFP standing. The winner of Alabama and LSU is going to have a good shot, and the loser is not.

LSU (9-3, 6-2 after 38-23 loss to Texas A&M)

The Tigers falling apart offensively wasn’t on the list of expected outcomes. Now, the Alabama/LSU game in 2 weeks looks like an elimination game for CFP consideration. At least for the moment, we’ll take an Alabama team that seemed to figure some things out in Week 9 over a Tigers team that looked more than a bit lost in the second half.

Ole Miss (9-3, 6-2 off 26-14 win over Oklahoma)

The Rebels are probably closer to an 8-4 projection than 10-2. Not only does Georgia seem likely to be a loss, but that game at Arkansas is suddenly much more interesting than it appeared even last week. For the moment, we’ll split the difference, but either loss probably knocks the Rebels out of the CFP hunt.

Missouri (9-3, 6-2 after 34-0 loss to Alabama)

Much as with Ole Miss, the tough call here wasn’t whether to consider 10-2. It was whether to move to 8-4. The Tigers probably slide to that mark if Brady Cook isn’t available. They should have Mississippi State and Oklahoma isn’t looking exceptionally challenging. But Arkansas and South Carolina (on the road) are both entirely capable of besting the Tigers. For the moment, we’ll split the difference and pick 1 of the 2.

Vanderbilt (7-5, 5-3 after 27-24 loss to Texas)

Assuming the Commodores’ run defense is better than Kentucky’s, they should be able to handle Auburn and get that critical 6th win. South Carolina at home is probably the best shot at a 7th, but we’ll pick the Commodores to wrangle another win up somewhere.

Arkansas (7-5, 5-3 coming off 58-25 win over Mississippi State)

The Razorbacks continue to impress. Running and throwing for over 300 yards will do that. At this point, a 7th win beyond the obvious victory over Louisiana Tech looks to be in the cards. Ole Miss or Mizzou don’t look as daunting as they did. The Hogs seem likely to grab one of the other games to up their bowl prestige a step.

South Carolina (6-6, 4-3 after week off)

The Gamecocks should handle Wofford. A&M and Clemson both look outside the realm of possible wins, so that leaves at Vandy and home against Missouri for a 6th win. We’re thinking that USC goes 1-1 and gets to a bowl despite an absolutely brutal schedule.

Oklahoma (5-7, 4-4 after 26-14 loss to Ole Miss)

FCS opponent Maine will be a 5th win, but beyond that, it’s dicey. The best shot of the 3 is pretty clearly at Missouri, but at this point, the Oklahoma offense hasn’t earned the respect of a projected 6th win. So we’ve got them sitting outside the bowl picture.

Kentucky (4-8, 3-5 after 24-10 loss to Auburn)

Turning Jarquez Hunter into Bo Jackson spells final doom on the Kentucky season. Even after FCS Murray State, Kentucky would have to upset Tennessee or Texas to make the Louisville game meaningful at the end of the regular season. Not happening.

Auburn (4-8, 3-5 coming off 24-10 win over Kentucky)

Auburn seemed to find an identity. They’ll beat ULM, but we can’t pick them over a dangerous Vanderbilt team that has just been so much more efficient. Alabama and A&M just look outside the realm of possibility.

Mississippi State (2-10, 1-7 after 58-25 loss to Arkansas)

State has played reasonably well against some good teams, but they didn’t do that Saturday. Only UMass saves the Bulldogs from finishing 1-11.

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.