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Ranking each program in the SEC from a pure talent perspective
By John Crist
Published:
Talent. All other things being equal, more often than not, the team with the most talent wins in the SEC.
There are a few unconventional ways to stock your roster with additional talent. Periodically, a walk-on will exceed expectations. J.J. Watt, the best defender in the NFL, originally was a walk-on at Wisconsin.
Even if the recruiting services are right more than they’re wrong, from time to time they miss on a high school player’s potential at the next level. Carson Wentz was totally ignored for the class of 2011 and had to enroll at North Dakota State. He just got selected No. 2 overall this past spring in the NFL Draft.
However, if a team wants to compete for championships, blue-chip talent must be brought in every February.
Among the SEC’s past five Heisman Trophy winners, two (Derrick Henry, Tim Tebow) were five-star recruits. Two more (Cam Newton, Mark Ingram) were four-star signees. Three-star Johnny Manziel was the lone outlier.
With the help of the composite rankings at 247Sports, which date to 1999, I added the three-, four- and five-star prospects who signed with the 14 member institutions of the SEC from 2012-16. That’s five recruiting cycles, encompassing fifth-year seniors all the way down to true freshmen.
Naturally, not all of them are still on campus. For reasons good and bad, many have gone elsewhere.
Some didn’t qualify academically and never suited up in the first place. Others only needed three seasons before developing into first-round picks. Most are somewhere in between, their stories yet to be written.
To keep my scoring as simple as possible, I awarded three points for a three-star signee, four for a four-star and five for a five-star. Those raw totals were then divided by the total number of three-, four- and five- signees during the aforementioned five years. The result is a rough average star rating per program.
It’s not a perfect system. Two-star kids, for example, won’t be represented. But the math makes sense.
1. Alabama
5-stars: 23
4-stars: 71
3-stars: 32
Average star rating: 3.93
To the surprise of nobody, the defending national champion Tide are atop the rankings by a healthy margin.
‘Bama has signed 23 five-star prospects the last half a decade. The other 13 SEC teams have combined to ink 46. While not all pan out, the sheer volume of elite talent on hand is staggering.
Nick Saban’s projected class for 2017 is ranked No. 2. Tuscaloosa may as well be an NFL minor-league stop.
2. LSU
5-stars: 8
4-stars: 72
3-stars: 41
Average star rating: 3.73
The Tigers are understandably second in the standings, albeit much closer to No. 3 below than No. 1 above.
If Les Miles can be counted on for one thing on the recruiting trail, it’s his ability to hold on to the top players inside the talent-rich borders of Louisiana. Few venture outside of the Pelican State.
All the more frustrating, however, is his inability to find a quarterback and a 21st-century passing game.
3. Auburn
5-stars: 7
4-stars: 62
3-stars: 52
Average star rating: 3.63
Maybe the biggest underachiever in the league, there are plenty of four- and five-star kids on The Plains.
Many of Gus Malzahn’s more high-profile signees the past few years have played defense, but the return on investment hasn’t been there. He’s already on his third D-coordinator since 2014.
His best QB, Nick Marshall, was a Georgia washout and JUCO transfer. His next QB may be John Franklin III, a Florida State washout and JUCO transfer.
4. Georgia
5-stars: 12
4-stars: 53
3-stars: 59
Average star rating: 3.62
Much like LSU, the Dawgs do a fine job making sure the top prospects in the Peach State end up in Athens.
An absolute factory for running backs, seemingly every ball carrier in red and black has a decent shot to succeed on Sunday. If coach Kirby Smart hits with five-star quarterback Jacob Eason, the future is bright.
While UGA usually has more talent on the field than wins in the standings, Year 1 for Smart is promising.
5. Texas A&M
5-stars: 8
4-stars: 52
3-stars: 61
Average star rating: 3.56
The Aggies seem to have a bit of a top-heavy roster at this point, loaded with stars but lacking in depth.
A nasty receiving corps is led by five-star recruit Christian Kirk. A scary D-line is anchored by five-star tackle Daylon Mack and five-star end Myles Garrett. Mack and Garrett are both from football-crazed Texas.
The rest of the conference wants to infiltrate the Lone Star State. Kevin Sumlin can hold his own, though.
6. Florida
5-stars: 7
4-stars: 46
3-stars: 68
Average star rating: 3.50
Year 1 was a success for Jim McElwain, but he has a long way to go if he’s going to recruit like Urban Meyer.
Considering the fact that Florida has more SEC-caliber players than either of its neighbors, Georgia and Alabama, the Gators should be signing more four and five-star kids. That’s McElwain’s primary directive.
Florida State is dominating the Sunshine State. Miami might be back before long under Mark Richt, too.
7. Tennessee
5-stars: 1
4-stars: 53
3-stars: 71
Average star rating: 3.44
Credit Butch Jones for pulling the Volunteers back from the brink, as they’re everyone’s pick in the East.
According to the numbers above, 124 three- and four-star signees in a five-year period is quite a haul for most schools. However, the lack of five-star recruits is telling. Elite players aren’t going to Knoxville.
Arkansas has signed just as many five-star kids in the same time. Even Mississippi State has corralled more.
8. Ole Miss
5-stars: 8
4-stars: 34
3-stars: 74
Average star rating: 3.43
While the Vols have swung and missed at five-star kids, the Rebels have inked more than their fair share.
The class of 2013 alone produced Laremy Tunsil, Laquon Treadwell and Robert Nkemdiche, all of whom lasted three years before going in Round 1 of April’s draft. The 2016 cycle produced three more five-star studs.
Eight five-star gets in five years is terrific, but 34 four-star signees isn’t enough to compete annually.
9. South Carolina
5-stars: 0
4-stars: 39
3-stars: 83
Average star rating: 3.32
Only once in the past five years has South Carolina signed the top player residing in the Palmetto State.
That was one of the criticisms of former coach Steve Spurrier as his coaching career came to a close: His staff’s recruiting was too hit and miss. Clemson, on the other hand, has built a brand under Dabo Swinney.
Will Muschamp wasn’t a bulletproof recruiter at Florida, but he is an upgrade from Spurrier in that department.
10. Arkansas
5-stars: 1
4-stars: 25
3-stars: 92
Average star rating: 3.23
Bret Bielema left a pretty good situation at Wisconsin. He came to Fayetteville for money and recruiting.
He finally landed a five-star prospect this past February in McTelvin Agim, a potential difference-making pass rusher offered by the likes of Alabama and LSU. It remains to be seen if he opens the door for more.
For the most part, Bielema’s kids are second- and third-tier recruits hungry to compete in the mighty SEC.
11. Mississippi State
5-stars: 2
4-stars: 22
3-stars: 95
Average star rating: 3.22
Dan Mullen’s most successful player, Dak Prescott, was a three-star prospect largely off the SEC’s radar.
He’s living proof that recruiting services don’t always get it right. Mullen’s first five-star kid, Chris Jones, never realized his potential in Starkville. He was still a second-round pick in the draft, though.
MSU’s latest five-star signee, Jeffery Simmons, will be one of the conference’s most criticized freshmen.
12. Missouri
5-stars: 2
4-stars: 12
3-stars: 95
Average star rating: 3.15
Both Dorial Green-Beckham and Terry Beckner Jr. were nearby five-star kids. Each made his way to Columbia.
They tasted success early. However, Green-Beckham ran into trouble off the field, left school and declared for the NFL. Beckner is battling not just a bum knee, but also the long arm of the law in his second year.
Regardless, what the Tigers need is more depth. Signing 12 four-star prospects in five years isn’t enough.
13. Kentucky
5-stars: 0
4-stars: 15
3-stars: 103
Average star rating: 3.13
If only Mark Stoops could work a room like John Calipari. UK could one-and-done into a real SEC contender.
But the Wildcats did manage to sign the top quarterback recruit in the Bluegrass State twice in a three-year span. Patrick Towles and Drew Barker were four-star kids. Towles flamed out. Now it’s Barker’s turn.
Best-case scenario for Stoops is locating more Chris Westry types, three-star kids who deserved a fourth.
14. Vanderbilt
5-stars: 0
4-stars: 11
3-stars: 88
Average star rating: 3.11
If Alabama was a no-brainer selection to be at the top of this list, Vandy was a sure bet to finish last.
There are some quality institutions of higher learning in the conference, but none compares to the one in Nashville. As a result, too many of those four- and five-star recruits can’t qualify academically.
Since only 99 three- and four-star kids became Commodores from 2012-16, there was room for lesser players.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South. You can send him an e-mail directly at jcrist@saturdaydownsouth.com or follow him on Twitter @SaturdayJC.
John Crist is an award-winning contributor to Saturday Down South.
