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If those who don’t remember the past are doomed to repeat it, then SEC fans better remember their teams’ recent week 1 performances—or they just might see them play out again. With that possibility in mind, let’s see how the opening week of college football has treated the West’s squads over the past five seasons.
Alabama
Last 5 Years: 5-0
Not surprisingly, the Tide have fared well out of the gate for the season. Aside from a cupcake against Kent State in 2011, Alabama has played big-time programs recently to open (Michigan, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Wisconsin). And they’ve done better than fine. Only in 2014, when they edged West Virginia by a 33-23 count did Bama fail to cover the point spread. And while Michigan and Wisconsin were neutral-site opponents believed to have a shot at the upset, they had no shot. Doesn’t bode well for Southern Cal’s chances on Saturday.
Arkansas
Last 5 Years: 4-1
The Razorbacks lost to Auburn to open 2014, but otherwise have scheduled light to very light for their opener. Arkansas won 34-14 as a 10-point favorite against Louisiana-Lafayette in 2013, and then was favored by over 30 points against Missouri State in 2011, Jacksonville State in 2012 and UTEP last year. The Hogs covered in three of their four season-opening wins, which suggests that Louisiana Tech could have a long Saturday.
Auburn
Last 5 Years: 4-1
One thing is for sure. Whether Auburn plays a relative lightweight (2011 vs. Utah State or 2013 against Washington State) or a tough foe, 2012 vs. Clemson or 2015 vs. Louisville, they play close games to open. The one exception was a whipping of Arkansas to open 2014, but otherwise, four of the last five openers were decided by one score, including a 26-19 loss to Clemson to open a tough 2012 season. Another season-opening loss could be devastating.
LSU
Last 5 Years: 4-0 (cancellation in 2015)
LSU has alternated big-time opponents (Oregon in 2011, TCU in 2013, Wisconsin in 2014) with cupcakes (North Texas in 2012 and McNeese State in 2015, which was cancelled for weather reasons). But the Tigers have handled their matchups, winning as a dog over Oregon to begin the 2011 march to the national title game and getting past TCU and Wisconsin in 2013 and 2014. They have made things interesting, particularly in that 28-24 win over Wisconsin, who is the opening opponent this time around. Could be a good game.
Mississippi
Last 5 Years: 4-1
Ole Miss has played a few tough openers, losing as a slight home underdog to BYU to start a 2-10 2011 season, edging past Vandy 39-35 to open 2013 and thumping Boise State in 2014 by a 35-13 count. There have been a few cupcakes as well, like 2012’s matchup with Central Arkansas or last year’s 76-3 romp over FCS UT-Martin. But Florida State is a different kettle of fish. The Monday game will be must-see TV for many reasons, one of which being that the Rebs haven’t faced a first-game opponent like this in a while.
Mississippi State
Last 5 Years: 4-1
In 2013, the Bulldogs opened with a tough 21-3 loss to Oklahoma State. Otherwise, Dan Mullen has been a firm believer in keeping it simple. State was favored by three touchdowns over Southern Miss last year and won easily, 34-16. Other recent openers were Memphis in 2011, Jackson State in 2012 and Southern Miss again in 2014 — with each being a 30-point plus underdog. The Bulldogs covered those point spreads, which suggests that whoever is at QB on Saturday, State should fare well with South Alabama.
Texas A&M
Last 5 Years: 4-1
The Aggies have gone from opening against SMU in 2011 or Rice in 2013 to facing conference foes Florida in 2012 (a tough 20-17 loss) or South Carolina in 2014. Last year, they opened as only a slight favorite over Arizona State, but they pasted the Sun Devils, 38-17. UCLA is expected to be a tough matchup this time around, but recent history suggests the Aggies will be fine.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
