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Each year, maybe two dozen SEC football players must decide whether to return to college or enter the NFL draft.
For some, there’s not much of a decision — players like Laremy Tunsil or Vernon Hargreaves III this year who are sure-thing first-round picks. For others, it’s an easy call to stay in school.
Still, there’s a small subset of players who face a serious choice each January. Often there’s significant risk (millions of dollars) involved. And sometimes there’s no “right” choice, as luck can play a role.
Here are some of the most interesting decisions faced by SEC players prior to the ’15 NFL draft, and what we now know the outcome to be.
Alabama LB Reggie Ragland: Following the trend of Tide defensive players in the last many years, Ragland returned to Tuscaloosa despite being at least a second-day prospect following the 2015 season. He became one of the nation’s steadiest players at the position, and while no one is mistaking his speed for that of LSU linebacker Deion Jones, he proved himself a versatile player. Now a sure-thing first-round pick, Ragland also put out the groundwork for players like Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams to return in 2016.
Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott: After an all-time historic season for the Bulldogs in 2014, the choice seemed fairly obvious, but Prescott still had to make it. Much like Chad Kelly’s decision to return in ’15, it may have been the most impactful of last year. He returned as a much better passer. As a player likely to be a two or three-year development project at the NFL level, it was a good idea to get real game experience against SEC competition for another season. Despite a recent DUI arrest, Prescott projects as a mid-round pick, perhaps as early as the third.
Florida OT D.J. Humphries: The former Gators offensive lineman ignored the advice of the NFL draft advisory committee, which insisted Humphries did not grade out as a first-round selection. That proved prudent, as Humphries went No. 24 overall to the Arizona Cardinals. Humphries sat out the year and should enter training camp as the projected starting right tackle.
“We drafted D.J. last year No. 1 knowing we were going to redshirt him because we had so much to teach him,” Bruce Arians said, according to ESPN.com. “If we threw him out there, he was going to fail. Once they fail, it’s hard to get those scars off, so he didn’t dress for a game purposely just to get better and better, and going against guys like (OLB) Dwight (Freeney) and (DT) Calais (Campbell) in practice, he got better every week.
“I think next year he’ll be ready to play.”
If nothing else, Humphries made a good choice by avoiding Florida’s subpar offensive line in ’15 — although his presence would’ve helped.
LSU DE Danielle Hunter: He took a risk by leaving Baton Rouge early as a player that was more potential than production to that point. A strong ’15 college season could’ve turned him into a first-round selection, and instead he slipped to the bottom half of the third round. Still, Hunter made 6 sacks as a rookie, second among all rookies to former Mississippi State player Preston Smith. So while the move may have impacted his rookie contract, he proved he was ready to earn himself a significant role within an NFL team.
Arkansas RB Jonathan Williams: The Razorbacks got great news just before Christmas when Williams announced via YouTube that he’d return to Fayetteville for his senior season. Coming off a 1,000-yard season, Williams decided to secure his degree rather than enter the draft and compete against what was a deep running backs class. Of course, Williams broke his foot and missed the entire season. But he’ll get selected, maybe in the fourth or fifth round. And he’ll get a shot to make an NFL roster with that degree as a fallback plan. So it’s hard to say he made the wrong choice, though it would’ve been fun to see him team with Alex Collins for one more year.
Florida DL Jonathan Bullard: This was one of the most effective results among SEC players who faced decisions entering 2015. By returning to Gainesville, Bullard improved from likely third-day pick to a longshot first-rounder who will surely get picked in the second or third round if that fails.
“When the NFL comes and tells you you’re not good enough to be what you want to do for the rest of your life, that puts a chip on your shoulder,” Bullard told the Tampa Bay Times regarding the negative feedback he got from the NFL after the ’14 season. “So I used that chip, went in, worked hard and just proved that I’m one of the best D-linemen in the country.”
Auburn WR Duke Williams: It’s long been forgotten now, but when Williams made the decision to return to Auburn for 2015, several notable draft analysts projected him as the No. 1 receiver prospect of the entire draft class. Williams was suspended for Auburn’s appearance in the Outback Bowl at the time. That would be a precursor to even more trouble in 2016, as coach Gus Malzahn eventually booted Williams from the team. At the NFL combine, Williams declared that he’s a first-round talent with seventh-round character. But if he’d have entered the NFL after last season, at least he would’ve been assured of getting selected. At this point it’s unclear if teams will judge whether he’s worth that investment.
LSU DB Jalen Mills: He broke the recent mold of Tigers defensive players by deciding to return to school, and subsequently suffered a serious lower leg injury. But he returned to be a factor in the second half of the season. It’s unclear exactly how much he helped his draft stock, but he could be a second-day pick later this month. At the NFL level, his skill set probably fits more at corner than safety. NFL.com projects him as a sub-package player early in his career. But it certainly didn’t hurt Mills to come back, as he’s now healthy entering the draft.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
