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Running backs, not just quarterbacks, will determine Mississippi State-Auburn winner
By John Crist
Published:
When Mississippi State travels to Auburn in Week 5, the majority of the focus will center on quarterbacks Nick Fitzgerald and Jarrett Stidham.
For the Bulldogs, Fitzgerald can be a dual-threat monster but also lays an egg every now and then, like he did this past Saturday at Georgia. For the Tigers, Stidham hasn’t quite taken the aerial attack to the next level, which was the expectation.
But make no mistake about it, both Fitzgerald and Stidham operate run-based offenses. Fitzgerald is obviously a critical component of the ground game in Starkville because he’s such a brute himself, while Stidham is more of a facilitator — coach Gus Malzahn always claims that he wants to run the football and run it with pace — on The Plains.
That being said, you may be shocked to discover that Stidham has almost as many carries (39) as Fitzgerald (41) through four games.
Fitzgerald is just the 13th-rated passer in the SEC at this point, ahead of only Texas A&M true freshman Kellen Mond. Stidham is a disappointing seventh, stuck in between Alabama’s Jalen Hurts and South Carolina’s Jake Bentley.
Fortunately for Stidham, he’ll finally have the terrifying tailback tandem of Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson — they’re the best duo in the conference if fully healthy — at his disposal Saturday when MSU visits Jordan-Hare Stadium. Pettway played Weeks 2 and 3 but missed 1 and 4. While Johnson suited up for Weeks 1 and 4, he sat out 2 and 3.
Pettway was absent from last week’s 51-14 blowout of Missouri, but he’ll be back in uniform for this crucial West showdown.
“He did practice yesterday, and we do expect him to play,” Malzahn said Wednesday on the SEC’s weekly coaches teleconference. “We’ll just see how much and all that as it gets later in the week.”
Auburn ended up losing three of its final four a season ago, mostly due to the fact that its backfield was a M*A*S*H unit.
Needless to say, Johnson picked up the slack with Pettway scratched for Mizzou. Even if he only ran for 48 yards on 18 carries, the 6-foot, 212-pounder scored 5 touchdowns on the ground to tie a school record set by Peyton Barber in 2015.
The Tigers were rolling last year when Pettway was the Alpha of the offense. In consecutive victories over Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss and then Vanderbilt — Johnson was unavailable for one of those games and not 100 percent for any of them — the 6-foot, 235-pounder racked up 770 yards and 6 TDs, pummeling poor defenders along the way. Then he was sidelined at Georgia. The winning streak ended.
Auburn ended up losing three of its final four a season ago, mostly due to the fact that its backfield was a M*A*S*H unit.
“What really got us towards the end of last year was both of them got banged up,” Malzahn said, “so you would like to see what they can do when they are both healthy.”
As for the ‘Dogs, Fitzgerald shouldered too much of the load offensively in 2016, both running and throwing. He ran the rock himself about 15 times per game last season, while primary running back Aeris Williams (above) only got approximately 10 attempts each week.
This year, those numbers have been reversed. A third of the way through the schedule, Williams has 59 rushes to Fitzgerald’s 41. Williams is quite effective, too. He’s tied for fifth in the league in rushing with 360 yards — more than Benny Snell of Kentucky and Derrius Guice of LSU — and averaging a healthy 6.1 per carry.
“He has gone to another level, and it’s all in his knowledge and understanding. He’s beginning to understand defenses more and more. He sees things before the ball is snapped, and that helps him to put himself in advantageous situations.” — Greg Knox on Aeris Williams
Moreover, Williams has done a lot of his damage on conventional runs. It’s not all read-option stuff, which puts Fitzgerald in harm’s way.
“He has gone to another level, and it’s all in his knowledge and understanding,” said running backs coach Greg Knox, according to 247Sports. “He’s beginning to understand defenses more and more. He sees things before the ball is snapped, and that helps him to put himself in advantageous situations.”
Behind Williams, Kylin Hill and Nick Gibson have also gotten into the act. Hill has averaged 5.6 yards on his 28 attempts, while Gibson has broken off runs at a 6.9 clip on 19 carries. The trio of Williams, Hill and Gibson averages 6.1.
Last year, Mississippi State handed the ball to its tailbacks 19.8 times per contest, while its QBs weren’t far behind at 16.5 — that’s an awful lot of extra punishment being absorbed at the game’s most important position. But so far in 2017, the ball carriers are getting 29 rushes on a weekly basis, as opposed to 13 for the passers.
Hill in particular is just a true freshman and will only improve once he gets adjusted to the continual car crash that is the SEC.
“He’s still got some things he’s working on, little things as far as learning the signals, understanding the plays, understanding the defense,” Knox said. “A lot of times the defense will tell you what they’re doing before the ball is even snapped. He is still learning the process of gathering information, being able to process that information and being able to use that to his advantage.”
It’s worth noting that Auburn is much better stopping the run at this juncture. The Tigers are tied for third in the conference at 97.5 yards rushing allowed per game, plus their average of 2.6 yards per carry allowed leads the league.
The Bulldogs are just a middle-of-the-pack unit — seventh in the SEC at 126.5 yards rushing allowed per game. That being said, their average of 3.2 yards per attempt allowed is fifth. Their rankings against the run fell across the board from this past week after giving up 203 yards and 4.8 yards per rush in a beatdown at the hands of Georgia.
Running the ball coupled with stopping the run tends to be a tried-and-true formula. It seems especially apropos for this matchup.
John Crist is an award-winning contributor to Saturday Down South.
