Plenty of SEC teams still have lots of work to do to claim bowl bids

IN TROUBLE (NEED SOME COMBO PUNCHES)

Now here’s where it gets dicey. There are seven other SEC teams all bunched up. They’ll figure out who’s going bowling by banging their heads against each other. Down the stretch in the next five weeks, there are six games among these common opponents and bowl chasers. They all can’t make it, and maybe only two will. That’s a lot of holiday heartache if five SEC teams stay home for the holidays. It could happen. Here’s why:

Tennessee (3-4): There is absolutely no question that Tennessee is the best 3-4 team in the country. Their four losses have come against teams that all have at least visited the top 10 in the polls this season and they’ve lost by one, four and five points, plus lost by seven in double-overtime. That said, with their easy schedule, they should run the table and finish 8-4, comfortably earning a bowl bid. The Vols play Kentucky, South Carolina, North Texas, Missouri and Vanderbilt and will be favored by more than a touchdown in every game. They’ve got margin of error in case they stumble once. Stumble twice? Just can’t see that happening. Just finish games, Vols. Odds to get bowl berth: 90 percent.

Kentucky (4-3): Even though the Wildcats are 8.5-point underdogs to Tennessee this week, they should be OK to go bowling for the first time since the end of the 2010 season. UK likely will be favored against Vanderbilt and Charlotte, so win those two and you’re in. They’ll be underdogs to Georgia, but that’s no lock for the struggling Bulldogs. The final game with state-rival Louisville is probably a toss-up for now. The ‘Cats have the easiest schedule of these seven by far, so Mark Stoops and the guys should be safe.  Odds: 75 percent.

Arkansas (3-4): UT-Martin is a gimme this weekend, but the challenge for the Razorbacks is going to be finding two wins among its final four SEC games against Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State and Missouri. The only game they’ll be favored in is Missouri at home in the season final, so they’re going to need to beat a ranked team to get in. It’s a long shot, but I wouldn’t put it past them. Hail State at home on Nov. 21 for the upset special? Odds: 35 percent.

Auburn (4-3): The Nov. 21 game against Idaho is a gimme, but the Tigers will be underdogs in their four other matchups with Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama. Lose all four and there’s no bowl. They need at least one upset, but where do you see that on this brutal schedule? It’s going to be tough. Can you imagine, a preseason No. 6 team in the country not going to a bowl game? It’s probably going to happen. Odds: 20 percent

Missouri (4-4): The way the Tigers offense is playing, finding a way to win two more ballgames isn’t going to be easy. They’ve gone 12 quarters without a touchdown now and still have Mississippi State, BYU, Tennessee and Arkansas to go. They’ll be underdogs in all four games, some slighter than others. The return of Matty Mauk from suspension might help. Or it might not. Odds: 15 percent.

South Carolina (3-4): Even though interim coach Shawn Elliott won his debut for the Gamecocks, finding three more wins will be very difficult. The Citadel is the only gimme, but they will be double-digit underdogs in their three remaining SEC games against Texas A&M, Tennessee and Florida, and their final game of the year is at home against Clemson, a team that could be going for an undefeated season and a playoff berth. Six wins is a very tall task. Odds: 3 percent

Vanderbilt (3-4): The Commodores just got their first SEC win in two years on Thursday and getting two more seems very unlikely. They might even need three SEC wins to go bowling because their nonconference game with Houston is tough. The Cougars are 7-0, ranked No. 18 in the country and head into Saturday as 11-point favorite over Vandy. Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Tennessee is a tough-enough final stretch where wins will be hard to come by. Odds 2 percent