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SEC Bowl Projections after Week 8: Tennessee climbs, Texas falls following eventful slate
By Ethan Stone
Published:
Georgia may have scored the most impressive win, but Tennessee made the biggest jump in respect to the College Football Playoff field.
The Vols proved Saturday that despite some woes on offense, they can get up, wipe themselves off and take care of business in crunch time. Nico Iamaleava – despite his struggles – manned up and put together a pair of excellent drives in the 2nd half to vanquish the Crimson Tide for the 2nd time in 3 years. Tennessee’s defense remains one of the best in the nation, too.
There’s a world where the Volunteers make the Playoff even with a loss to Georgia, but beating the Bulldogs in Athens would punch their ticket. Either way, I didn’t see Tennessee sniffing a spot a week ago with how it was playing – now it’s right in the thick of things.
Alabama, on the other hand, is in a lot of trouble. They can’t afford to lose again, and even if they are perfect the rest of the way the insanity that is the fight for the No. 11/12 spot likely puts them on the wrong side of the bracket. That’s barring unfathomable chaos; but hey… it’s college football.
The latest projections look a little different, though it’s still the same 12 teams from last week’s projections. Teams 1-3 and 5-8 seem to be in really good shape for a spot in the playoff, but things go completely off the rails for the final at-large bids. By my count, there are still 11 teams realistically fighting for the final 4 spots right now: BYU, Iowa State, Texas A&M, LSU, Indiana, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Mizzou, Kansas State, Alabama and Illinois. There’s a narrow path for teams like Pitt, Ole Miss and SMU.
So why Iowa State, Texas A&M and LSU? Matchups. Iowa State is undefeated and has at most 2 tough matchups remaining. Right now, projections point to the Cyclones beating Kansas State and losing to BYU in the Big 12 championship game. One of BYU and ISU is obviously safe, but the other has a really good shot as well.
Texas A&M has the advantage over LSU next weekend in College Station, but I don’t see the Aggies downing Texas. Similarly, LSU has an advantage over Alabama but could fall to the Aggies – obviously giving Mike Elko’s club the tiebreaker for a potential playoff spot if it comes down to it.
Here’s how I see the rest: Notre Dame is going to fall to one of Navy, Army or USC. Indiana will probably finish 11-1, but it’ll have zero ranked wins with a loss to Ohio State. Is that good enough to beat out an SEC brand with better wins at 10-2? I can see both arguments, but the Playoff committee likely sides with either of the Tigers or the Vols there.
That was a lot. Let’s get to the rest of the projections.
Oklahoma and Kentucky are now out of the projections entirely after losses to South Carolina and Florida, respectively. Both have a simple path to 5-7, but would need to beat a ranked team to get to 6 wins. Florida is in a similar situation and the Gators have the highest APR ranking of the group, which means a 5-7 bowl bid is still on the table for them. For now, all 3 are on the outside looking in.
The above movement has completely shifted the makeup of the remaining bowl games. Tennessee moves up to the Citrus Bowl while Mizzou moves to the Music City Bowl. Alabama is the bigger brand compared to Mizzou, so they sit in the ReliaQuest Bowl for now. You can find the remainder below.
Until next week, college football.
College Football Playoff
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner
Rose Bowl: Georgia vs. 7/10 winner
Peach Bowl: Miami vs. 6/11 winner
Fiesta Bowl: BYU vs. 5/12 winner
First Round
From Eugene, Oregon: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State
From Austin, Texas: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 LSU
From State College, Pennsylvania: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
From Clemson, South Carolina: No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa State
The Rest
Citrus Bowl: Tennessee vs. Indiana
ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama vs. Illinois
Music City Bowl: Mizzou vs. Iowa
Las Vegas Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Colorado
Texas Bowl: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech
Gator Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Pitt
Liberty Bowl: South Carolina vs. TCU
Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.
