SEC bowl projections after Week 9: One fewer team bowl-bound

Sorry, Shreveport. Your Independence Bowl will have to scramble a bit.

The SEC has seven bowl-eligible teams already at the end of October. Texas A&M, even after losing at home to Mississippi State on Saturday, is still 5-3 and will get to six wins. Probably. (November doesn’t make you too nervous, does it, Aggie fans?). MSU makes the week’s biggest move up this chart, and it’s well-earned.

So that leaves four league teams at 3-5 overall (not counting Ole Miss, which is on probation) and Florida at 3-4 with four games remaining; Hurricane Irma canceled UF’s game against Northern Colorado so the Gators will only play 11.

The math, and common sense, would say that at least one and perhaps a couple of those teams will close strong and get to at least 6-6. Even with all of its turmoil, Florida has OK odds of reaching six wins. It has Missouri, UAB and a massively unmotivated Florida State club in front of it. So, for now, the Gators stick around in these projections.

As for the others?

Still not sold on Missouri. Ditto Arkansas.

So why is Vanderbilt (3-5, 0-5) still around? Because if they finish 5-7, the Commodores still have a decent chance at a bowl thanks to three little letters: APR. Vandy’s Academic Progress Rate of 992 is tops in the SEC and tied for fourth in the nation. Northwestern (5-3), the APR co-leader at 995, is unlikely to need APR to get into a bowl. Third-place Michigan (APR 993, record 6-2) definitely won’t. The Commodores might have to worry about Air Force (APR 995, record 4-4), Minnesota (992, 4-4) and Duke (992, 4-5). Or perhaps Vanderbilt will win three of its final four and take care of business anyway by finishing 6-6. Games against Western Kentucky and Mizzou are pretty winnable and, though Kentucky will be favored, Vandy might stand a puncher’s chance against the Wildcats. But, mostly, I like the Commodores more and more to win their finale. Which brings us to …

… Tennessee, you’re out. After that gut punch of a loss to Kentucky on Saturday, the Vols are just as likely to mail in the rest of the season as they are to rally and become bowl eligible.

So that leaves the SEC one team short of filling its bowl allotment. And the Dec. 27 Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., is last in the league’s bowl pecking order.

Meanwhile, results elsewhere shook up the College Football Playoff scene again, so Alabama and Georgia get new opponents for their projected CFP semifinals.

I sense there will be some skepticism about Wisconsin (WHAT? The Badgers have played NOBODY!) and it is warranted. … OK, this explanation isn’t that scientific, but the Badgers usually are at their best when they are overlooked. And when they bring an unbeaten record into the Big Ten title game — and still carry the “nobody believes in us” card because Vegas is bound to make the East Division champion a touchdown favorite (a spread which bettors then might jack up to 10) — the Badgers will be at their most dangerous.

Take 2012. The five-loss Badgers were a three-point underdog to Nebraska in the B1G title game. Wisconsin smoked Nebraska 70-31 and the Cornhuskers have not been near the league title game since.

Sure, they won’t hang with Bama, and they’re not even the most talented bunch in the B1G, but the Badgers will keep a chip on their shoulder long enough to reach the CFP.

Jim Tomlin

Longtime newspaper veteran Jim Tomlin is a copy editor and writer with SaturdayDownSouth.com.