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SEC Bowl Projections following Rivalry Week: Texas flexes as Alabama awaits its CFP fate
By Ethan Stone
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Georgia, Texas and Tennessee will compete for the CFP title this season, and one of Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina seem likely to join them in the hunt after Week 14’s events.
If I were on the committee, and the rest of the committee was committed to taking the BEST teams like they said they were last season (sorry again, Florida State), I’d choose South Carolina for that last spot. But practically, there’s just not a path for the Gamecocks to the Field of 12. Head-to-head has to matter, and both Ole Miss and Alabama beat the Gamecocks.
There’s not a soul on the planet who knows what the committee is going to reveal on Tuesday except for those making the decision. My best guess? Alabama will be the 11-seed. However, Tide fans need to be rooting for SMU this Saturday because if Clemson wins the ACC, I don’t see a way Alabama jumps the Mustangs.
The precedent it would set for the committee to drop SMU out of the field due to a potential loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship game is, to put it briefly, a bad one. It’s the same reason why Penn State comes in at No. 6 in the projection over Notre Dame (11-1), despite my assumption that the Nittany Lions will suffer their 2nd loss of the season at the hands of Oregon this Saturday.
Let’s talk about Texas, which told myself and several other naysayers to kindly shove it by controlling Texas A&M and the 12th Man in Week 14. I said it last week – The Longhorns’ strength is defense and ruthless consistency against teams in a lower weight class – and Texas A&M was bullied at the line of scrimmage Saturday.
Texas now has a ranked win, but more importantly it has momentum heading into the SECCG. It’s tough to beat a good team twice in the same season, and Georgia’s stock is skyrocketing downward after a close call against Georgia Tech. Can Texas be potent in the rushing game against the Bulldogs this time around? I like the Longhorns in this one, but it could go either way.
Shifting gears.
In total, 13 SEC teams will go bowling this season – all except Auburn, Kentucky and Mississippi State. Ole Miss and South Carolina should get their pick at the top 2 spots, but these projections are entirely based on Clemson losing to SMU in the ACC Championship game – which likely places Alabama in the field and not in the Citrus Bowl against Illinois.
South Carolina has targeted the Citrus Bowl as their top bowl preference should the Gamecocks fail to receive a Playoff bid, and I’d expect the Citrus Bowl to acquiesce. That leaves Ole Miss in the ReliaQuest Bowl against Iowa.
Texas A&M vs. Texas Tech seems fairly likely in the Texas Bowl, and I certainly hope that’s the matchup we end up getting. Mizzou vs. Colorado in Las Vegas is also an elite bowl matchup that is lining up well.
Vanderbilt, thanks to its fanbase, is almost certain to get the least desired SEC bowl, which is why they sit at the bottom with Arkansas and Oklahoma just ahead in the Birmingham and Liberty Bowls, respectively.
Until next week, college football:
College Football Playoff
Sugar Bowl: Oregon vs. 8/9 winner
Rose Bowl: Texas vs. 7/10 winner
Peach Bowl: SMU vs. 6/11 winner
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. 5/12 winner
First Round
From Happy Valley, Pennsylvania: No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 12 Arizona State
From South Bend, Indiana: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Alabama
From Athens, Georgia: No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Indiana
From Knoxville, Tennessee: No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Ohio State
The Rest
Citrus Bowl: South Carolina vs. Illinois
ReliaQuest Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Iowa
Las Vegas Bowl: Mizzou vs. Colorado
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Texas Tech
Music City Bowl: LSU vs. Michigan
Gator Bowl: Florida vs. Syracuse
Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Kansas State
Birmingham Bowl: Arkansas vs. North Carolina
Gasparilla Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Memphis
Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.
