Week 9 SEC Primer: LSU and Texas A&M are on a roll. Only one of them can keep it going into November

Everything you need to know about the Week 9 SEC slate, all in one place.

(All betting lines provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Game of the Week: LSU at Texas A&M (-2.5)

The stakes

Sole possession of first-place in the SEC standings and prime Playoff positioning as the calendar turns to November. The Tigers and Aggies came into the season as wild cards, and in many ways still are. For all the lingering question marks, though, they’re hitting the home stretch as arguably the hottest teams in the league: Both have ripped off 6-game winning streaks in the wake of opening-day disappointments against USC and Notre Dame, respectively, and come in as the only 2 SEC teams yet to suffer a loss in conference play.

Swing games don’t get much swingier than this.

As it stands, both sides are looking at very similar Playoff odds; LSU has a 40.8% chance to make the cut and Texas A&M a 31.2% chance, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. Those numbers are about to diverge in dramatic fashion, with the winner taking a big step toward securing a ticket and the loser relegated to the bubble with 2 losses and zero margin for error over the final month of the regular season.

If it’s not literally a must-win, it’s only because season-defining rivalry games against Alabama (for LSU) and Texas (for A&M) still loom large with certain Playoff implications of their own. But just how large, and for whom, depends on which way the scoreboard breaks on Saturday night.

The stat: 37

That’s the number of “stops” credited to LSU linebacker Whit Weeks this season by per Pro Football Focus, most among all Power 4 defenders. PFF defines stops as “tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense” based on down and distance — essentially a more comprehensive take on the concept of tackles for loss. For some context, with 5 games still to play in the regular season, Weeks’ 37 stops already matches the Tigers’ team-leading total for all of 2023 (by his more experienced running mate, Greg Penn III) and is just 1 shy of the team-leading total in 2022.

Now, it would be unfair to both players to compare Weeks, a true sophomore with just 8 career starts under his belt, to preseason headliner Harold Perkins Jr., one of the unique talents in the college game over the past few years. Weeks is more of a traditional off-ball linebacker than the free-ranging Perkins, and less versatile in coverage; their roles are not identical. Still, with more reps available since Perkins suffered a torn ACL in Week 4, it’s hardly a coincidence that Weeks’ production has spiked in the meantime, especially as a blitzer: In Perkins’ absence, Weeks has recorded 14 QB pressures and 3 sacks on just 27 pass-rushing snaps, as well as a tip-drill interception from point-blank range in last week’s win at Arkansas. Whatever his limitations in space, in a race to the ball you’re rarely going to catch him coming in second place.

The big question: Can Texas A&M establish the run?

As evenly matched as these teams are, the offenses represent a clear contrast of styles: LSU is comfortable putting the ball in the air early and often, averaging an SEC-high 41.6 passes per game, while A&M prefers to slug it out behind a huge offensive line. (OK, all modern offensive lines are “huge” as a rule, so let me specify that even by prevailing SEC standards in 2024 this bunch is absolutely massive: The 11 players listed on the official two-deep average 325 pounds per man.) Running backs Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels are both thickly-built grinders who have generated more than 70% of their combined 966 rushing yards after contact.

At their best — see lopsided wins over Florida in Week 3 and Missouri in Week 6 — the Aggies have imposed their will in the trenches en route to big numbers on the ground, a significant edge in time of possession, and (maybe most important) their most efficient passing outings of the season. The more space the ground game gives QB Conner Weigman to operate on his own terms, the more effective he’ll be.

For its part, LSU’s defense has been a squarely middle-of-the-pack unit against the run, running hot and cold from one week to the next. They’ve been dominant at times, holding UCLA to 56 yards rushing (excluding sacks) in Week 4 and Arkansas to 62 yards last week; at other times, they’ve been gashed, giving up 285 yards at South Carolina and 211 yards to Ole Miss — both razor-thin, come-from-behind wins decided on the last play of the game.

Notably, the latter 2 games featured a couple of running quarterbacks, Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (107 rushing yards vs. LSU despite missing the entire second half to injury) and Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart (59 yards), who played a big role in those efforts. By the same token, in last week’s win at Arkansas the Razorbacks’ supremely athletic QB Taylen Green was a shadow of his usual self mobility-wise due to a sore knee. Weigman is not known as a running threat, by any means, but if the opportunity presents itself, letting him pull it on a zone read or two might be worth it, just to let the Tigers’ edge defenders know it’s a possibility they have to respect.

The key matchup: LSU OT Emery Jones Jr. vs. Texas A&M Edge Nic Scourton

LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has been one of the best-protected quarterbacks in the country, facing pressure on just 22.6% of his total drop-backs, and getting him on the ground has been nearly impossible: He’s taken just 2 sacks all season, both against South Carolina. Otherwise, opposing defenses have come up empty in the sack column even when they’ve managed to turn up the heat. PFF credited Ole Miss with 21 QB pressures against LSU but somehow not a single hit among them, much less a sack.

That’s a testament to Nussmeier, a fast processor who gets rid of the ball in 2.62 seconds on average, and his veteran o-line, especially first-class left tackle Will Campbell Jr. Yet as eager as NFL scouts will be to watch Campbell working against A&M’s blue-chip edge-rushing rotation, the Aggies’ path to disrupting Nussmeier most likely runs through the other side of the line, where RT Emery Jones has struggled to live up to his early-round billing. Although he hasn’t been cited for allowing a sack, PFF does have Jones down for 17 QB pressures allowed, easily the most on the team and just 1 fewer than he allowed in all of 2023. More than half of those (9) came in the Ole Miss game alone.

Keeping Scourton at bay would be a fast way to get back in the scouts’ good graces. An aspiring first-rounder in his own right, Scourton has made a smooth transition from Purdue, where he led the Big Ten in sacks in 2023, to the SEC, where he’s looked right at home over the first half of the season. His 11 tackles for loss ranks 2nd in the conference and tied for 6th nationally; that number includes 4.5 sacks, most memorably a game-clinching strip sack in the Aggies’ Week 5 win over Arkansas.

https://twitter.com/AggieFootball/status/1840163790366601569/

Between Scourton (19 QB pressures), former 5-star Shemar Stewart (20 pressures) and Bowling Green transfer Cashius Howell (16 pressures), Texas A&M boasts 3 future pros on the edge capable of ruining Nussmeier’s night without forcing coach Mike Elko to dip into the “exotic blitz” section of the playbook. In fact, the Aggies are counting on it, because against LSU wideouts Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson they’re going to need every available body on the back end they can get.

The verdict …

The 2.5-point spread in Texas A&M’s favor is strictly a home-field tilt, which tracks with the recent history of this series. The home team has won 7 straight, 5 of them by double digits. Surprisingly, although one side or the other was ranked in the AP top 20 in each of those games, LSU and A&M haven’t met with both teams ranked in the top 20 since 2013, in Johnny Manziel’s last game in Kyle Field. (A 34-10 LSU win, for the record.)

Can LSU hold up in the trenches? Offensively, that means protecting Nussmeier and giving him time to expose a just-okay A&M secondary. Defensively, it means stuffing the run and putting the onus on Weigman, who remains a work in progress, to make plays on obvious passing downs. Both are easier said than done. If the Aggies win up front, it’s their night.
–     –     –
• Texas A&M 27 | LSU 23

Missouri at Alabama (-16.5)

A make-or-break game for both teams’ Playoff chances, and the worst possible time for Missouri (6-1) to get hit by the injury truck. Quarterback Brady Cook, the hero of last week’s come-from-behind, 21-17 win over Auburn, is listed as “doubtful” to play on Saturday due to the high ankle sprain that sidelined him for most of the game against the Tigers; leading rusher Nate Noel is reportedly out with a foot injury; and 4 regulars in the secondary who have played in every game this season are listed as “questionable.” If Cook is out, the next man up is Notre Dame/Arizona State transfer Drew Pyne, who posted a brutal 7.7 QBR rating in Cook’s absence last week.

If Cook is in, Alabama’s defense is as vulnerable as it has been in ages: The Tide rank 15th out of 16 SEC teams in total and scoring defense vs. Power 4 opponents. Only Mississippi State has fared worse. Mizzou arguably has more explosive playmakers in Luther Burden III, Theo Wease Jr., and Mookie Cooper than any of the opposing offenses (Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Tennessee) that have sent Bama plummeting in the rankings the past 3 weeks. Without a healthy Cook, though, that’s like having an expensive, finely tuned sports car but no key to start the engine.
–     –     –
Alabama 30 | • Missouri 18

Texas (-18.5) at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has thrived by hogging the ball, racking up at least a 9-minute advantage in time of possession in all 4 of its FBS wins. That blueprint is going to be difficult to pull off against Texas, for 2 reasons: 1), the Longhorns excel at getting off the field on defense, ranking in the top 10 nationally in 3rd-down defense, first downs allowed and available yards allowed; and 2), the Commodores are unsure of the status of their leading receiver and primary chain-mover, TE/WR Eli Stowers, who appeared on the weekly injury report with an undisclosed injury.

Stowers, a former Texas A&M signee who detoured through New Mexico State before resurfacing in Nashville, has gone over 100 receiving yards in 3 of Vanderbilt’s past 5 games, including a 6-catch, 113-yard outing in the ‘Dores’ historic upset over Alabama. Twenty-two of his 33 catches have gone for first downs, including all 6 vs. Bama. If he’s available, Texas can expect a heavy dose, especially with top RB Sedrick Alexander also listed as questionable. If not, Vandy’s clock-killing options are thin, to say the least. Folk hero QB Diego Pavia is an effective short-yardage runner, but he can only account for so much.
–     –     –
Texas 34 | • Vanderbilt 19

Oklahoma at Ole Miss (-20.5)

Oklahoma has reinstated beleaguered sophomore Jackson Arnold as its starting quarterback — for now, anyway — but the issues that have plagued the Sooners all season still persist: They can’t run, can’t protect the quarterback (whoever it is), and the top half of the depth chart at wide receiver remains on track for a medical redshirt. The only faint glimmer of hope after last week’s 35-9 debacle against South Carolina is that at least it can’t get much worse. On that note, Oklahoma does have a new play-caller, Joe Jon Finley, who was promoted to interim offensive coordinator on Sunday following the dismissal of OC Seth Littrell. Don’t hold your breath for a spark: Per the Action Network, the 3-touchdown spread in Oxford is the largest OU has faced as an underdog since 1997.
–     –     –
Ole Miss 31 | • Oklahoma 13

Auburn at Kentucky (-2.5)

A couple of depressing streaks are on the line: Auburn has dropped 7 straight against power-conference opponents dating to last season, while Kentucky has lost 6 straight at home in SEC play. Worse, the Wildcats have averaged a dismal 16.7 points in those losses, the most recent of which came in a 20-13 flop against Vanderbilt in a game the ‘Cats were favored to win by 2 touchdowns. Did we mention that Kentucky is a run-first offense on the verge of running out of available running backs? Forget the point spread: If Auburn blows this game, Hugh Freeze and Payton Thorne should have to find their own way back to campus, buddy comedy-style.
–     –     –
• Auburn 22 | Kentucky 17

Arkansas (-6.5) at Mississippi State

If Mississippi State is going to avoid a winless finish in SEC play, this is its best chance. I am tentatively on the Michael Van Buren Jr. bandwagon, but as promising as their fledgling new QB has been the past couple of weeks, the defense continues to offer little hope. Against FBS opponents, the Bulldogs rank 125th nationally in total defense and yards per play, and 122nd in scoring, allowing at least 30 points in every game of a 6-game losing streak.
–     –     –
• Arkansas 31 | Mississippi State 23

Off This Week: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee

Scoreboard

Week 8 record: 5-3 straight-up | 4-4 vs. spread
Season record: 65-16 straight-up | 50-28 vs. spread

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.