SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 7: Diego Pavia is much more than a meme

Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6.

1. Jalen Milroe | Alabama

College football, man. One week, you’re playing like God’s gift to the game on one of the biggest stages in American sports. The next, you’re committing 2 killer turnovers in a monumental defeat on the SEC Network, against the backdrop of a literal construction zone.

A result like Vanderbilt 40, Alabama 35 is difficult to process. I mean, hey, good for Vandy! From Bama’s perspective, though, gauging whether it falls into the “any given Saturday” column or represents a crisis in the making is going to take some time. For his part, when not coughing up the ball, Milroe was his usual, explosive self against the ‘Dores, averaging a robust 12.9 yards per attempt and accounting for 2 touchdowns (1 passing, 1 rushing). He turned in perfectly cromulent marks in terms of efficiency (188.9), Total QBR (77.9) and overall PFF grade (88.9), and his presence was the main reason the Crimson Tide managed to make a 60-minute game out of it on an afternoon when the defense couldn’t get off the field to save its life.

In fact, the story of the game was that Milroe simply didn’t get his hands on the ball enough: Vanderbilt amassed an incredible 24-minute advantage in time of possession, limiting the Tide to just 44 offensive snaps on 9 possessions.

Then again, in that context the turnovers loomed especially large. The first, a tip-drill interception turned pick-6 on Milroe’s second attempt of the game, put the Commodores up 13-0 before Alabama’s offense was even out of the driveway. The second, a 4th-quarter strip sack with Bama down 5 and driving for a would-be go-ahead touchdown, was the moment the upset bid stopped being cute and started getting real. Vandy’s offense cashed in on another extended touchdown drive that extended the lead to 12; by the time Milroe’s turn came up again, it was too little, too late.

https://twitter.com/VandyFootball/status/1842704956450853336/

OK, that happened. An embarrassment, a nightmare, the worst-case scenario for the post-Saban project. What matters now is how they respond. Beyond their bruised egos, the Tide still have everything in front of them, Playoff and Heisman very much included. What they don’t have anymore is margin for error against a schedule that still features road trips to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. If Milroe is who we thought he was after the Georgia game, the Music City Meltdown winds up as a bizarre footnote. If it turns out his brilliant performance against the Dogs was his peak, well, what a huge missed opportunity.
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(Last week: 1⬌)

2. Jaxson Dart | Ole Miss

Few if any quarterbacks have been more aggressive over the first half of the season than Dart, who has let it rip on a weekly basis. Nearly 23% of his attempts to date have covered 20+ air yards, per Pro Football Focus, the highest rate of any Power 4 quarterback; on downfield throws alone, he’s the P4 leader in yards (763), yards per attempt (19.1) and touchdowns (9). That’s not always the most efficient way to go about go about your business — Dart was just 2-for-9 on attempts of 20+ air yards last week in the Rebels’ 27-3 win at South Carolina — but as long as a couple of them connect, it is the most fun.
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(Last week: 3⬆)

3. Quinn Ewers | Texas

Arch Manning‘s guest-hosting stint as QB1 could not have gone much better, but all signs point to Ewers returning to the top line against Oklahoma after nearly a month on the shelf. Per official Power Rankings policy, it remains Ewers’ job until further notice. But it is safe to assume that the moment there’s any doubt about that, the notice is probably going to be a lot shorter than it would have been if Manning was still in plastic.
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(Last week: 2⬇)

4. Carson Beck | Georgia

I feel like I’ve watched Georgia play the exact same game so many times at this point that I can recite the box score of their dull-yet-decisive, 31-13 win over Auburn by heart. Beck’s line was standard-issue: 23-for-29 for 240 yards, 2 touchdowns, 171.6 passer rating, 89.2 QBR. Nothing too flashy. That tracks fairly closely with both his 2023 season averages and his Week 1 output against Clemson across the board. He was also typically well-protected against Auburn, facing pressure on just 6 of his 31 drop-backs — a nearly identical rate to last year’s.
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(Last week: 4⬌)

5. Diego Pavia | Vanderbilt

Yes, Pavia is the ultimate underdog: A 5-foot-nothing scrapper from the outskirts of nowhere who has paid his dues in the bush leagues and, as of Saturday afternoon, come out on top. His former high school in New Mexico is essentially the last outpost before the Albuquerque sprawl yields to open desert. Ignored by FBS schools, he attended junior college in Roswell, spiritual home of little green men; he won an improbable JUCO national title there, then went on to post a 14-9 record as a starter at New Mexico State. (An achievement, if you know anything about New Mexico State.) He’s a character with a compelling backstory who plays with a reckless, Manziel-ian flair and drops f-bombs on live TV in the same breath that he praises God. But it’s probably time to consider that beyond the scrappy persona Pavia is also just a flat-out good college quarterback.

His performance in Vandy’s upset win over Alabama was, of course, the game of his life. Although he only put the ball in the air 20 times, Pavia’s 16 completions yielded 252 yards, 13 first downs, 2 touchdowns, a 218.8 passer rating, and a 95.9 QBR rating, 2nd-best among all FBS quarterbacks for the weekend. He added 4 more first downs as a rusher, including the game-clincher in the closing minutes; wasn’t sacked; and cashed in on his lone completion of 20+ air yards, a 4th-and-1 moon ball that came down for a dramatic, 36-yard touchdown that will lead his highlight reel for the rest of the season/his life.

As a team, the Commodores converted more 3rd downs (12) than any opposing offense against Alabama since at least 2016, executing their methodical, keep-away game plan to perfection. Six of their 9 offensive possessions resulted in points, 8 of 9 involved multiple first downs — the lone exception yielding the long 4th-down TD pass — and all 9 ended in Crimson Tide territory.

Level of competition aside, though, that was a fairly typical Pavia performance. He ranks in the top 20 nationally on the season in yards per attempt, efficiency, QBR and overall PFF grade. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in all 4 games vs. FBS opponents; meanwhile, he’s 1 of only 4 QBs nationally with at least 100 attempts who has yet to throw an interception. Per PFF, his rate of “turnover-worthy plays” is a minuscule 0.7 percent, best in the SEC, and his 80.6 grade under pressure ranks second nationally behind only Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Altogether, Pavia has accounted for 71.3% of Vanderbilt’s total offense, the largest individual share in the conference.

Honestly, based on past experience chronicling the revolving door of futility that typically passes for the Vanderbilt QB depth chart (and with repeated assurances from my editor that nobody cares about Vandy), this entry is already 3 or 4 times longer than I expected to be spending on Pavia at any point this season. But pretty clearly he’s not going anywhere.

He told reporters earlier this week that his ultimate goal is to play in the NFL (specifically, his dream is “to win the Super Bowl, win some Super Bowls,” and “to be the greatest person to ever play football”), which given his Rudy-esque stature remains a long shot. “Sub-six-foot wild card who idolizes Johnny Manziel” is not exactly an ideal scouting report at the next level. At some point, though, presuming to know what this kid is or isn’t capable of starts to look a sucker’s bet.
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(Last week: 8⬆)

6. Garrett Nussmeier | LSU

Around here we believe sacks are primarily a quarterback stat, and few QBs have done a better job protecting themselves this season than Nussmeier, who has been sacked just once in 202 drop-backs, per PFF. Of course, having a couple of early-round draft picks on either end of the offensive line doesn’t hurt. But Nussmeier has also excelled at getting rid of the ball quickly, with an average time to throw of 2.51 seconds — 2nd-fastest among SEC starters behind Quinn Ewers — and a pressure-to-sack ratio of just 2.8%, best in the Power 5. Keeping him clean is a top priority in this weekend’s date with Ole Miss, which leads the nation in sacks.
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(Last week: 5⬇)

7. Conner Weigman | Texas A&M

So much for a QB controversy in College Station. After a 3-game absence due to an injured shoulder, Weigman returned to the starting lineup against Missouri looking like a new man, reasserting his grip on the starting job in a comprehensive, 41-10 beatdown of the No. 9 team in the country. On an afternoon when everything went right for the Aggies, he delivered the best performance of his career, finishing 18-for-22 for 276 yards with a 93.7 QBR rating, looking every bit the part of a franchise QB in the process.

https://twitter.com/AggieFootball/status/1842612246830072057/

With all due respect to redshirt freshman Marcel Reed, who went 3-0 as a starter with wins over Florida and Arkansas, a healthy Weigman is entrenched for the foreseeable future. The version the Aggies saw on Saturday is the one they were hoping to see prior to his injury-induced flop against Notre Dame, and if it’s the version they get the rest of the year they’re going to be a factor in the conference race. (Technically, A&M is alone in first place in the standings at 3-0.) Then again, given that Weigman has yet to play in more than 4 consecutive games in his career, that’s a very big if. As insurance policies go, Reed is not exactly Arch Manning, but it is nice to know he’s there.
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(Last week: 9⬆)

8. Brady Cook | Missouri

While Weigman’s stock rebounded, Cook’s plummeted just as abruptly. Hounded by a relentless A&M pass rush, he looked rattled and out of sync, taking 6 sacks and turning in his worst ratings in turns of both efficiency (103.0) and QBR (25.6) since his early days as a starter in 2022. Missouri’s first 6 offensive possessions resulted in 5 punts, 4 3-and-outs and a turnover on downs, after which Cook’s stat-padding efforts in garbage time amounted to lipstick on a pig.

It’s worth noting that, for all the attention on the Tigers’ blue-chip wideouts, Cook’s ascent in 2023 coincided with the emergence of a consistent, dynamic workhorse in the backfield, All-American Cody Schrader. The ground game was M.I.A. in College Station, mostly out of necessity after Mizzou fell into a 24-0 hole in the first half. If there was any doubt about whether Cook is the kind of quarterback who can be counted on to throw his team out of a deficit after the scoreboard renders the offense one-dimensional, the Aggies might have just put the question to rest.
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(Last week: 6⬇)

9. Taylen Green | Arkansas

Arkansas’ upset bid against Tennessee had all the makings of a disappointment: The Razorbacks dominated the first half statistically but repeatedly failed to cash in on scoring opportunities, led just 3-0 at halftime, and quickly fell behind 14-3 in the third quarter. You’ve seen this ending before, right? Not so fast, my friend! With the momentum decidedly against him, Green responded with his best passing streak yet in an Arkansas uniform, completing 6 consecutive passes for 117 yards on back-to-back, 75-yard scoring drives to pull Arkansas within a point, 14-13. After Green exited with a knee injury, his understudy, redshirt freshman Malachi Singleton, came off the bench to lead an improbable, go-ahead touchdown drive as the clock wound down, aided by Tennessee’s decision to let Singleton score with a little over a minute to go; the defense held on the other end, and the Hogs escaped with a 19-14 stunner over a top-5 opponent.

Although Green’s injury looked potentially severe in the moment, he walked off the field under his own power, and the locals are optimistic that he’ll be ready to go against LSU on the other side of an open date. They need him, obviously. For all his volatility, when it all comes together Green is a total package whose upside gives the Razorbacks a shot almost every time out.
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(Last week: 10⬆)

10. Nico Iamaleava | Tennessee

It’s a sober week on the Nico bandwagon following our boy’s first loss as a starter. Iamaleava was not a disaster against Arkansas, by any means, but the combination of a mediocre stat line (17-for-29, 158 yards, no touchdowns, 4 sacks, 39.5 QBR) and a failed 1-minute drill with the game on the line represented the first real setback in his brief but charmed tenure as the face of the program. So we can safely rule out the Heisman. Beyond that, let’s see how he responds this weekend against a very vulnerable Florida defense before reading too much into one sketchy night on the road.
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(Last week: 7⬇)

11. Brock Vandagriff | Kentucky

Vandagriff is beginning to look like he’s going to make it as the Wildcats’ starter, which was hardly a given after a couple of red-flag outings against South Carolina and Georgia in his first 2 SEC starts. His last time out, a patient, 20-17 upset at Ole Miss in Week 5, was significantly more self-assured for his first road trip. Up next: Vanderbilt, a game in which both offenses are in mutual agreement that the clock must die a slow and painful death.
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(Last week: 12⬆)

12. Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway | Florida

Mertz and Lagway continue to share an entry here, although it’s increasingly clear that the Gators are committed to Mertz as the starter while his freshman understudy serves in the “change of pace” off the bench. The rotation has served them well in the past 2 games, with Mertz turning in a couple of productive, efficient, and reassuringly turnover-free outings in wins over Mississippi State in Week 4 and UCF on Saturday. Meanwhile, Lagway has more than justified his reps, going 11-for-11 for 126 yards and leading multiple scoring drives in both games. The degree of difficulty ramps up this weekend at Tennessee, but if I had to bet on one or the other pulling away over the second half of the schedule I’d still lean toward the heir apparent.
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(Last week: 13⬆)

13. LaNorris Sellers | South Carolina

Shane Beamer is an optimistic guy by nature, and also a guy who is personally and professionally invested in his young quarterback’s success, so he was being fully in character this week when he said his main takeaway from Carolina’s 27-3 loss to Ole Miss was that Sellers “played his butt off.” At least Gamecocks fans can agree on which part of the anatomy that game evoked. Silver linings notwithstanding, Sellers remains a project: Among the players on this list, he ranks last for the season in yards per attempt, efficiency, QBR, EPA, overall PFF grade and sacks.
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(Last week: 11⬇)

14. Michael Hawkins Jr. | Oklahoma

Hawkins did just enough get over in his first career start, a 27-21 win at Auburn in which Oklahoma’s top five receivers were all on ice. The injury report against Texas figures to be slightly more forgiving coming off an open date, but that’s where the optimism ends: The Longhorns are favored by 2 touchdowns. If nothing else, we should come away with a clearer picture of just how much distance there is between the freshman and the guy he replaced, the still-available Jackson Arnold.
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(Last week: 14⬌)

15. Payton Thorne | Auburn

Thorne didn’t figure to make much of a dent against Georgia’s secondary, and he didn’t, with nearly half of his 200 passing yards coming in garbage time of a 31-13 loss in Athens. On the plus side: He didn’t throw an interception, snapping a 7-game streak vs. Power 5 opponents with at least 1 INT dating to last year. On the non-plus side: He still found a way to provoke his head coach’s wrath on the sideline, after Georgia’s defense nerfed a crucial 4th-and-1 play at midfield to open the fourth quarter. On the field, the Tigers ran an ill-fated zone read that was instantly blown up for a 4-yard loss, turning the ball over on downs and setting up a short field for the Bulldogs to punch in the clinching touchdown a few plays later.

https://twitter.com/GeorgiaFootball/status/1842690903707906068

“The call was a dive left to Jarquez (Hunter), and we didn’t execute that play,” Hugh Freeze said after the game, once again putting his quarterback in the crosshairs following a loss for the third week in a row. “Yeah, he absolutely didn’t go with what we had called.”

For his part, Thorne was cryptic about the situation, telling a local radio show “I will say I did not check any play” but declining to elaborate. Personally, I thought the play they actually ran had a chance if Thorne could have managed to get north-south inside of the crashing edge defender instead of trying to bounce it, but then, given that Auburn was almost certainly not going to make up an 11-point deficit at that point the question is academic. Anyway, seems like communication is going great.
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(Last week: 15⬌)

16. Michael Van Buren Jr. | Mississippi State

Van Buren survived his first career start, a 35-10 loss at Texas, with his health and his confidence intact, flashing the “Horns down” following the Bulldogs’ lone touchdown in garbage time. Up next: Another daunting road trip to Georgia, where many a fledgling ego has gone to die.
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(Last week: 16⬌)

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.