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SEC passing yardage DFS picks: Analysis for Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook and more
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The 2024 college football season is just a few weeks away, and PrizePicks has unveiled projected passing yardage marks for a dozen SEC quarterbacks.
The SEC is loaded with intriguing passers in 2024. The group includes returning starters like Jalen Milroe and Carson Beck, former 5-stars like Nico Iamaleava and Jackson Arnold as well as relative unknowns such as Taylen Green and Brock Vandagriff.
Here are PrizePicks’ pick ’em projections for 12 SEC quarterbacks for 2024:
- Carson Beck, Georgia: 3,250.5
- Brady Cook, Missouri: 2,900.5
- Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma: 2900.5
- Quinn Ewers, Texas: 2,850.5
- Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: 2,850.5
- Graham Mertz, Florida: 2,550.5
- Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee: 2550.5
- Conner Weigman, Texas A&M: 2,450.5
- Blake Shapen, Mississippi State: 2,450.5
- Jalen Milroe, Alabama: 2,400.5
- Brock Vandagriff, Kentucky: 2,200.5
- Taylen Green, Arkansas: 2,050.5
Beck leads all SEC passers in projected yardage and is the only quarterback in the league who is expected to throw for more than 3,000 yards during the regular season, according to these projections from PrizePicks.
Here are 3 picks based on the above projections:
Brady Cook more than 2,900.5 passing yards
This is my favorite bet on the board. Cook had a breakout year in 2023, throwing for 3,189 yards during the regular season. Now a year older, we’re being offered a line that’s nearly 300 yards lower than what he accomplished last season.
In addition to his track record, a couple variables have shifted which give me confidence in this number going higher. For one, Missouri relied heavily on Cody Schrader in the run game last season. He rushed for over 1,600 yards in 2023, but is now out of the college game. Mizzou replaced him with a pair of intriguing transfers, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Mizzou looked to its passing game more without a dominant rusher in the backfield.
Perhaps more importantly, Missouri’s defense may end up taking a step back this season. The Tigers lost defensive coordinator Blake Baker to LSU and will be running a new system under replacement DC Corey Batoon. That could lead to more possessions for Mizzou, which would presumably mean more passing opportunities for Cook.
Some things have changed at Missouri, but this remains true: the Tigers have arguably the best wide receiver room in the SEC. Luther Burden leads the way as he has a case to be the first receiver off the board at the 2025 NFL Draft. Mizzou’s next top 2 receivers from last season, Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper, are also back for the 2024 campaign.
All signs point toward Cook having another highly-productive season.
Quinn Ewers more than 2,850.5 passing yards
Quinn Ewers was limited by injuries last season, but still ended up throwing for 2,709 yards in 10 contests last season. Presuming that he’ll play in all 12 games this year, I love getting his passing yardage prop at this number.
Texas did lose Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell to the NFL, but the Longhorns went out and got a trio of great receiver options in the portal: Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden and Silas Bolden. There’s also 5-star WR Ryan Wingo, who figures to also play a big role in this Texas offense.
Ewers made real strides as a passer last season as he averaged a career-best 8.8 yards per attempt. I’m also not at all concerned that EA sports influencer Arch Manning is going to overtake him as Texas’ starter (assuming Ewers remains healthy, of course).
As with Cook, I’m also expecting Texas’ defense to be a little worse in 2024, which should lead to more opportunities for the Longhorns’ offense.
Texas’ schedule will be tougher than the one it faced a year ago in the Big 12, but the Longhorns came out fairly well from a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all things considered. In SEC play, Ewers should have no problem pushing the ball through the air against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas or Kentucky. Texas A&M’s secondary is a potential weakness as well.
This is an experienced quarterback with big-time pedigree, an awesome wide receiver room and plenty to prove as he looks toward his NFL future.
Jackson Arnold less than 2,900.5 passing yards
Jackson Arnold made his first-career start in Oklahoma’s bowl game loss to Arizona last season. He showed off tremendous potential in that game, throwing for 361 yards and 2 touchdowns. But he also tossed 3 interceptions and completed under 60% of his passes.
Arnold is entering a tough situation as well. Oklahoma has a new offensive coordinator following Jeff Lebby’s departure to Mississippi State as well as 5 new offensive linemen. By all accounts, the coaches and players that Brent Venables brought in to replace those departures are off to a good start in Norman. But it’s still a lot of turnover for a redshirt freshman who is entering his first season as a starter.
Oklahoma’s wide receiver room is also dealing with multiple injuries. Andrel Anthony, who tore his ACL last fall, isn’t expected to be ready to start the year. Jayden Gibson, who was expected to take on a bigger role this year, reportedly suffered a knee injury in practice last week and his status is uncertain.
Oklahoma’s defense projects to be good-to-great, depending on who you ask. If Arnold struggles with turnovers, Oklahoma may decide to try to grind out wins with a defense-and-running game approach. It also doesn’t help that OU faces a very tough schedule that includes Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama and Tennessee in SEC play.
In any case, it doesn’t make much sense to me that Arnold’s line is 350 yards higher than that of Tennessee starter Nico Iamaleava. Arnold and Iamaleava have similar pedigrees, but Tennessee’s offensive system has routinely produced quarterbacks who have soared above the 2,500-yard threshold. Even Joe Milton, as much as he struggled last year, threw for 2,813 yards. Relative to Iamaleava’s price, Arnold’s number seems egregiously high.
How does PrizePicks work?
At PrizePicks, you can group 2 or more selections and potentially earn money based on how they perform.
PrizePicks allows users to group picks into 1 of 2 categories: Flex Play or Power Play. In a Flex Play, you can still win money even if you don’t hit on all your picks. On Power Play, all picks have to be correct in order to cash — but the rewards are greater.
For example: if you selected the 3 picks mentioned above as a Power Play, you would win 5x your money if they all are deemed winners at the end of the season. If you added a 4th pick to your Power Play, you would potentially 10x your money.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
