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Florida vs. Georgia.
The most bitter rivalry in the SEC outside of the Iron Bowl — a series so divisive the schools can’t even agree on how often the game has been played (Florida says Saturday’s game is the 95th meeting; Georgia alleges it is the 96th).
For the Gators, it’s a chance to salvage a lost season, slow the wave of momentum building against Jim McElwain’s continued tenure in Gainesville and hand the nation’s No. 3 team its first loss of the season.
For the Bulldogs, it’s an opportunity to move the program to 8-0 for the first time since 2002, all but wrap up the SEC East title and assure themselves a spot in the top four when the Playoff committee releases its first rankings next week. It’s also a chance for Georgia to begin to erase three decades of frustration against the Gators and demonstrate that in only year two under Kirby Smart the balance of power is shifting in the SEC East.
So what should we expect Saturday, especially in a rivalry game that has taught us over the years that the only thing that is certain is nothing is certain?
Here are 10 bold predictions ahead of the Cocktail party.
- In three games against the Gators, Sony Michel has 77 total yards. He eclipses that number Saturday.
One of the reasons Sony Michel and teammate Nick Chubb returned for their senior seasons was to finally beat the Gators.
Michel has accumulated 28 career touchdowns and endless praise, but in three games against Florida, he’s struggled to make any impact. He’s rushed for only 47 career yards on 15 carries, scored 0 TDs and was held to just two yards a year ago. And despite being used early in his career as a dynamic out-of-the-backfield pass-catcher, he’s caught only three passes in his career against the Gators, gaining only 30 yards in the process.
For Michel, a prized recruit from south Florida, the fact he’s been bottled up consistently against the school from his home state is personal.
“It’s unfinished business,” Michel said this week.
The thinking here is that changes Saturday. Michel will not only eclipse his 77 career yards against Florida, he’ll score a touchdown too.
- Jake Fromm will throw a first-half interception.
Jake Fromm has done a tremendous job of taking care of the football.
He’s thrown only three interceptions on the season, and never more than one in a game. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider offensive coordinator Jim Chaney has largely trusted Fromm to make plays with his arm downfield. Fromm enters Jacksonville leading the SEC in yards per attempt and has the highest percentage of completions of 20 yards or more (17.4%) in the SEC.
Nevertheless, even including Notre Dame, this will be the best defensive line he’s faced (Florida is second in the SEC this season to only Alabama in both hurries and tackles for loss generated by the front four), and the thinking here is the pressure forces one bad throw.
- Georgia will record 4 sacks after recording 0 in the Vanderbilt and Missouri games.
In the first five contests of the season, Georgia recorded 10 sacks, with dominant play from Trenton Thompson at the tackle position freeing up Lorenzo Carter, Devin Bellamy and the other members of the UGA front seven to do work. Thompson hurt his knee against Tennessee, however, and the Bulldogs failed to record a sack in wins over Vanderbilt and Missouri.
Thompson is set to return Saturday, and he’s a nightmare matchup for Florida center T.J. McCoy, who has struggled this season against both big, physical tackles and athletic ends on stunts. This, coupled with Florida QB Feleipe Franks’s struggles reading the field, will help the Bulldogs generate pressure and four sacks.
- Either Malik Davis or Lamical Perine will have 75 yards rushing.
Here’s where something has to give.
On one hand, the Bulldogs’ defense enters the game ranked first nationally in S&P+ rushing defense. Only Notre Dame’s sensational tailback Josh Adams (53 yards) and Mississippi State’s Nick Gibson (52 yards) have even eclipsed 50 yards rushing against Georgia thus far in 2017.
On the other hand, Florida has had a running back gain at least 93 yards against Georgia in each of the last three victories, and the Gators have had multiple backs over 90 on two occasions.
Florida’s shown some promise this month with a physical, downhill running game against LSU and Texas A&M, both excellent run defenses and defensive fronts. The Gators won’t have as much success against Georgia, but they’ll do better than anyone has all season, and either the fast, elusive Davis or the bruising Perine will be the beneficiary.
- Terry Godwin will do something spectacular.
Georgia fans may argue the point, and there’s no question Javon Wims has been outstanding as of late. But the best perimeter playmaker the Bulldogs have remains Terry Godwin, as that catch against Notre Dame demonstrated. Godwin has also been one of the only Bulldogs who has consistently brought his best against Florida, with nine receptions and 100 yards receiving for the Dawgs in the last two meetings.
Look for Jim Chaney to find ways to get Godwin matched up on one of Florida’s inexperienced safeties or freshman corner C.J. Henderson, and look for Godwin to exploit that matchup and make a big play or two.
- Feleipe Franks will hit on an early deep ball.
The Gators enter the Cocktail Party an abysmal 116th nationally in passing plays of 20 yards or more. That said, if Tyrie Cleveland can play, the Gators will have the best vertical threat UGA has faced all year, and as we learned in the Florida-Tennessee game, there are no questions about Feleipe Franks’ arm strength.
Franks isn’t Drew Lock, that’s true, but Missouri doesn’t have Tyrie Cleveland either, and expect Cleveland to play and get behind Georgia’s defense at some point in the first half.
- Florida will try, and fail, to hit a trick play
In 2014, the key to a 3-3 Florida’s monumental upset over a top 10 Georgia team was a fake field goal that gave the Gators the confidence they needed to break open what had been a tight game early.
Look for Jim McElwain and Doug Nussmeier to dig into their bag of tricks and try to fool Georgia Saturday — maybe on a halfback pass or a wildcat throw from Kadarius Toney.
This time, however, expect Kirby Smart’s defense to be ready.
- Johnny Townsend helps Florida control the field position for a while.
The Gators punter was just named a midseason All-American, but he’s had a strange year.
First, he botched a hold on an extra point against LSU. Florida lost by a point.
Then he inexplicably kicked the ball to Christian Kirk at the key moment of the Texas A&M game, setting up a big return and the Aggies’ game-winning field goal.
He’s easily the better punter in Saturday’s game, and may be the only spot on the field where Florida has a definitive edge. Expect him to angle punts out of bounds and help Florida keep a step ahead from a field-position standpoint for a while Saturday.
- Rodrigo Blankenship will be money and outshine Eddy Pineiro.
For all the YouTube hype around Florida kicker Eddy Pineiro, like the famous 81-yard field goal in pads, Georgia’s Rodrigo Blankenship has been the better kicker this season.
While Pineiro has missed key extra points and struggled with kickoffs out of bounds, Blankenship is 10/11 on field goals, perfect on extra points, and poised to break Bulldogs and Chicago Bears great Kevin Butler’s program record for touchbacks in a season.
The Gators have done a nice job of holding teams to field goal attempts in the red area this year. Unfortunately for Florida, Blankenship will bury those kicks.
- Georgia will win but fail to cover.
Georgia is a two-touchdown favorite and rightfully so. The Bulldogs run the ball better, defend the run better, pass better, and block and tackle better. Maybe the only area Florida has an edge is punter.
But this is a strange rivalry game, where the unexpected happens frequently.
Georgia is only 2-3 as a double-digit favorite in this game dating to 1980, and has never covered in that scenario. Facing an inspired Florida team playing for its embattled head coach, they Dawgs will get everything Florida has on Saturday.
They’ll win anyway, because they are a better football team. But they won’t cover the spread.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
