Taking a look at a few unlikely CFP scenarios among SEC teams

So the new College Football Playoff rankings are out and, no surprise, Alabama is No. 1.

Also no surprise, Auburn at No. 9, is the two-loss team with the most potential mobility, even though it’s ranked two spots behind 7-2 Wisconsin and one spot behind 7-2 Texas A&M.

With Georgia, the Iron Bowl and — most importantly — a potential SEC Championship Game ahead of it on the schedule, Auburn is the two-loss team with the best chance at making the College Football Playoff.

And that’s it for SEC teams that could possibly play in the Playoff.

Right?

Well, how about Florida? Yes, now-unranked Florida.

Yes, the same Gators who were just thumped by No. 25 Arkansas, 31-10. That’s the same Arkansas that was coming off a 56-3 drilling by No. 9 Auburn the last game out.

Florida, unlike most of the 12 two-loss teams and all of the three-loss teams in the rankings, have a viable path to a conference championship. The Gators can also pick up some quality wins along the way.

Of course, having a path and looking capable of walking that path are two different things.

Florida is offensively challenged and now without its starting quarterback. That road to a 10-2 record and an SEC championship? It’s hard to see the Gators getting there without tripping over their own non-offensive feet or getting pummeled by somebody bigger or badder.

But what if they do? Is it possible for them to go from unranked on Nov. 8 to in the Playoff in the first week of December?

Let’s look at their path and its potential.

There are chances for quality wins, including the potential for a win over Alabama, which would carry a ton of weight. There is a chance to win what’s still considered by most to be the best conference in college football.

We’ve been assuming, with good reason, that No. 9 Auburn, if it gets to 11-2, would merit strong consideration for a Playoff spot if it wins out (with a little bit of help). So shouldn’t an 11-2 Florida team with the same SEC championship trophy get that same consideration?

Let’s compare the hypothetical résumés:

11-2 Auburn

Quality wins: No. 1 Alabama, No. 24 LSU, No 25 Arkansas.

Losses: No. 2 Clemson, No. 9 Texas A&M.

10-2 Florida

Quality wins: No. 1 Alabama (or Auburn), No. 24 LSU, No. 18 Florida State.

Losses: No. 25 Arkansas, Tennessee.

Comparing the two, Auburn’s potential résumé is stronger for two reasons: The LSU win and the Clemson loss can potentially look better on the Tigers’ résumé than the LSU and Florida State games can look on the Gators’ worksheet. And the quality of the losses are obviously better on the Auburn side.

Let me explain the first part.

Right now, the would-be Florida wins over LSU and Florida State are purely hypothetical (those games are still ahead on the schedule), and both LSU and Florida State are three-loss teams. For Florida to get to 10-2, both LSU and the Seminoles would have to pick up their fourth loss, and the quality of those wins would consequently get diminished.

Auburn, on the other hand, has played LSU and Clemson already. So a late surge by LSU to an 8-3 finish — meaning LSU beats Arkansas, Florida and Texas A&M — makes the win in Les Miles’ swan song more compelling. And the season-opening loss to Clemson is likely to stay strong based on the rest of the Tigers’ path.

One thing Florida would probably need to happen is a win by Alabama in the Iron Bowl. If a hypothetical 10-2 Florida team is matching résumé with one-loss, non-conference champions from the Big Ten (say, if Michigan loses to Ohio State), it will need the Alabama trump card.

A win over 12-0 Alabama in the SEC title game would give a hell of a final impression before Playoff selections. A win over a 10-2 Auburn team, even if that team just beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl?

Probably not as much.

Speaking of Alabama, what if the Tide loses to either Auburn or Florida? Would it still be a Playoff team OVER the team that beats them?

Florida would get a little more résumé mileage than Auburn from a win over Alabama because the Tide would have one more quality win, over Auburn. But at the same time, if the committee is choosing between a 12-1 Alabama and a 10-2 Florida, one could see the committee going with Alabama despite the head-to-head loss.

Let’s look at the résumé of a 12-1 Alabama team with a loss to Florida.

Quality wins:  No. 20 USC, No. 25 Arkansas, Tennessee, No. 8 Texas A&M, No. 24 LSU AND No. 9 Auburn.

Loss: Florida.

Compare that list of quality wins to what Florida compiled on the list above. Despite Florida’s win in the hypothetical matchup, doesn’t Alabama have the better résumé here?

If Auburn beats Bama, it would fare a little better in the head-to-head résumé matchup because Alabama gets one less quality win (from no SEC Championship Game appearance) and wouldn’t even have a division championship. But it can still be argued that Alabama has a better résumé.

Reading all this, there may be some fans of No. 8 Texas A&M out there screaming, “What about us?”

Sure, the Aggies are also a two-loss team, but unlike Auburn and Florida, the Aggies have no realistic route to the SEC title game after losing to Mississippi State, and that makes it hard to imagine a road to the Playoff, not with a loss to Mississippi State on the résumé, and its best potential résumé win going forward would be against No. 24 LSU in the season finale.

It’s hard to see a two-loss team that’s not a conference champion getting picked over a one-loss team like say, Michigan (if it loses to Ohio State) or Louisville.

Gary Laney