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NCAA Tournament primer: Scouting Tennessee’s opening opponent … and beyond
By Mark Nagi
Published:
No Sunday suspense here. The Tennessee Volunteers have now made it to the NCAA Tournament 5 straight times. It is now a given that when March rolls around, the Vols will hear their names called for the field of 68. This year, the Vols received a 4 seed in the East Region and will face 13th-seeded Louisiana in Orlando on Thursday.
The problem is that come March, Tennessee struggles to live up to its seeding.
In 2018, the Vols were a 3 seed and lost in Round 2. In 2019, they were a 2 seed and lost in the Sweet 16. They were a 5 seed in 2021 and got knocked out in the 1st round. Last year, Tennessee was a 2 seed that fell in Round 2.
Rick Barnes is in his 8th season in Knoxville, but the Vols have gotten to the 2nd weekend of the NCAA Tournament only once during his tenure.
Here’s a look at Tennessee’s opening-round opponent and a prediction on how far it will advance in the NCAA Tournament.
Scouting Louisiana
How they got here
The Ragin’ Cajuns enter the NCAA Tournament with a 26-7 record, fresh off a Sun Belt Conference Tournament championship. This is the 7th time that Louisiana has made to the Big Dance, and its 1st appearance since 2014.
Top player
Forward Jordan Brown. He averages 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. Brown is coming off a solid performance in the Sun Belt Tournament, averaging more than 15 points and 11 rebounds in those 3 games. He was named tournament MVP.
Brown is a finalist for the Lou Henson Player of the Year Award, which is given annually to the top player at a mid-major.
What they do best
Louisiana is ranked in the top 40 nationally in scoring, averaging 78 points per game. Senior guard Greg Williams Jr., a St. John’s transfer, averages 13.1 points per game and leads the team in 3-pointers with 60. Sophomore guard Kentrell Garnett has 56 treys on the year. So this isn’t a “Jordan Brown or bust” squad. It can score.
Best win this season
There’s not a whole lot to go with here. The Cajuns beat Sun Belt regular-season champion Southern Miss 75-61 in Lafayette back on Jan. 5, then lost the rematch in Hattiesburg a month later.
Louisiana played only 1 ranked team this season, falling at then 7th-ranked Texas by 28 on Dec. 21. Tennessee beat Texas 82-71 on Jan. 28.
Most important thing to know about the Ragin’ Cajuns
This is not a great defensive team. The Ragin’ Cajuns are ranked 146th in defensive efficiency by KenPom. They are also 284th in 3-point defensive percentage, so this might be an area the Vols can exploit. Santiago Vescovi and Tyreke Key are probably going to get some open looks from distance.
Prediction
Louisiana is playing well right now, and Tennessee … isn’t. But the Vols have too much talent on the roster to lose this game. The Vols get to the 2nd round with a 67-58 victory.
Beyond the opener
The Vols’ bread and butter is defense. They are one of the best teams in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 58 points a game. Their best bet might be to win a game ugly, much like they did against Arkansas a couple of weeks ago. They were forced to play bully ball that night because point guard Zakai Zeigler tore his ACL. UT misses Zeigler desperately.
If the Vols get to Round 2, they’ll play the winner of 5th-seeded Duke vs. 12th-seeded Oral Roberts. Those teams are coming off tournament titles, with the Blue Devils winning the ACC and the Golden Eagles taking the Summit League crown. Each looks good right now. Both would be seeded lower than the Vols but would present a tough matchup.
Should Tennessee play on Saturday, I don’t see the Vols getting past either the Blue Devils or the Golden Eagles.
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
