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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Tennessee. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | LSU | Mizzou | Mississippi State | Oklahoma | Ole Miss| South Carolina
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You can do a whole lot worse than a 9-win floor. Tennessee knows that all too well.
You don’t have to go back far to remember the late days of Jeremy Pruitt or Butch Jones, both of whom insisted on lowering the floor to previously unthinkable levels. So far, Josh Heupel hasn’t followed suit. Last year felt like a floor/transition season in Year 3.
Why? The Joe Milton offense was limited. For all the offseason talk about his arm strength, the Vols were 90th in FBS in 20-yard passes. The Bru McCoy injury didn’t help matters, neither did Squirrel White’s slow start or Dont’e Thornton’s disappointing season after he transferred from Oregon and had all the offseason buzz.
As a result, Heupel failed to produce a top-8 scoring offense for the first time during his 6 seasons as a head coach. The Vols ranked No. 35 in FBS in scoring, and against SEC competition, they averaged just 24.4 points per game (No. 77 in FBS) and they were the 8th-most penalized team in FBS.
Not ideal. But getting to 9 wins with less-than-ideal results should’ve served as a reminder that the drama-free Heupel has been (so far) exactly what the doctor ordered for the previously dysfunctional Vols. Now with his first true hand-picked quarterback recruit, Nico Iamaleava, we’re not wondering about what Tennessee’s floor is. We’re wondering what the ceiling is.
Is it a year too early for that? Or will Iamaleava take the Vols to 2022 levels and beyond?
Let’s dig into it with Tennessee’s 2024 Crystal Ball:
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va
Say it with your chest. I’ve been doing that all offseason because I feel like I’ll be saying it even more once the season begins and the Iamaleava rocket ship takes off.
(By the way, that’s in the Tennessee pronunciation guide. Just sound it out. It’s not that hard.)
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Iamaleava’s potential was shown in his first career start when he scored 4 touchdowns (3 rushing, 1 passing) in a blowout win against Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. Did that speed up the hype train? Absolutely. There’s nothing wrong with that, as long as those expectations are kept in check. Assuming that he’s about to become the Peyton Manning 2.0 isn’t fair, nor is expecting 2022 Hendon Hooker.
That’s not to say Iamaleava can’t reach those levels, or even 2021 Bryce Young levels. Spend any time watching the young signal-caller and you’ll see it all. He learned to process the tempo of the Heupel offense. He can use his legs both to pick up first downs and keep plays alive while making on-target throws. The deep-ball accuracy could be what determines if Tennessee gets back to being one of the more explosive offenses in America.
Fortunately for Iamaleava, the surroundings are promising. McCoy’s return from injury will be monumental, as will the ability of White to consistently get separation. The addition of Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II has been a popular topic of conversation, though he’ll enter with a more established pedigree than the aforementioned Thornton, who’ll also be back for another season.
On top of that, the floor of the Heupel running game could be Iamaleava’s best friend. Dylan Sampson will step into the RB1 role after he became one of the more efficient runners in the SEC. The backfield depth behind him might be a question mark, but Iamaleava’s legs figure to be part of that equation behind what should be one of the SEC’s top offensive lines.
Add it all up and it’s hard not to buy into the Iamaleava rocket ship.
James Pearce Jr. and that defensive line should be great, but that secondary? TBD
It’s been incredible to watch how quickly Pearce became a household name in college football. It felt like after he took off in last year’s season opener against Virginia, he was on everyone’s radar. Now, the pass-rushing extraordinaire is on everyone’s preseason All-American teams. If there’s a mock draft that doesn’t have Pearce as a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, it’s in the extreme minority.
After a breakout 2023 campaign, Pearce will be at the top of every scouting report, as will Omari Thomas at nose tackle. Double-teaming both of those guys won’t be an option. Even if Pearce’s 10 sacks dip a touch, there’s a good chance that he’ll be freeing up his teammates by commanding so much attention.
That’s the good news for Tim Banks’ Year 4 defense. The bad news is that his secondary had a ton of offseason turnover. Here are all the Tennessee defensive backs who played at least 350 snaps last season:
- CB Kamal Hadden, NFL
- CB Gabe Jeudy-Lally, NFL
- S Jaylen McCullough, NFL
- S Wesley Walker, transferred to Michigan
- S Tamarion McDonald, transferred to Louisville
- S Doneiko Slaughter, transferred to Arkansas
That’s something that could be Tennessee’s undoing. Go ask 2023 LSU about that. Just because you have a game-changing pass-rusher doesn’t mean he can cover up all the holes in the secondary.
To be fair, Tennessee added Jermod McCoy from Oregon State and Jalen McMurray from Temple, both of whom were above that 350-snap threshold. Still, though. New faces will have to step up if the Vols want to avoid significant regression after posting their best scoring defense (20.3 points/game allowed) since 2015.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Chattanooga (W)
After some early butterflies, Iamaleava exhales and starts cooking. Four consecutive touchdown drives means his day over by the middle of the third quarter in a blowout victory.
Week 2: vs. NC State in Charlotte (W)
Timing benefits the Vols in Charlotte. As Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall transitions to the new offense, he’s unable to process quickly enough against that loaded Tennessee defensive line. Short fields are exactly what the Heupel offense needs to settle in early. In a game that feels somewhat similar to how the Citrus Bowl played out, the Tennessee ground game finishes drives as the NC State offense sputters. A 31-10 victory in Charlotte has Tennessee knocking on the door of a top-10 ranking.
Week 3: vs. Kent State (W)
The takeaway will be that a once-questionable Tennessee quarterback room beyond Iamaleava feels a lot more secure after an impressive relief performance from Gaston Moore.
Week 4: at Oklahoma (L)
The Heupel reunion will bring College GameDay to Norman (with fans) for the first time since 2012. I wouldn’t expect any sort of drama outside of the obvious. That is, the national championship-winning quarterback/fired OC is returning to his alma mater for the first time as a head coach. That won’t matter after kickoff. What will matter is the confusion that Brent Venables draws up for Iamaleava in his first road start. After Tennessee jumps out to an early lead, Heupel’s offense leaves too many points on the board. Turnovers and failed 4th-down attempts flip momentum Oklahoma’s way. When Jackson Arnold can avoid Pearce, Tennessee’s secondary gets exposed. The Sooners make a statement in their SEC debut.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: at Arkansas (L)
This is the game that reminds everyone that if you’re not ready for an SEC road game, you’re in trouble. Tennessee, following an emotional loss to Oklahoma and the bye week, falls victim to that. This is the game that Arkansas fans have been waiting to see from Taylen Green. He connects with Luke Hasz and Andrew Armstrong at will against an overmatched Tennessee secondary. Landon Jackson and Arkansas make it a frustrating day for Iamaleava and the high-powered Tennessee offense. The Hogs avoid that dreaded 2-4 start while Tennessee suffers consecutive losses for just the third time in the Heupel era.
Week 7: vs. Florida (W)
For the first time, Florida’s defense runs into a buzzsaw. The 5-0 start for the Gators becomes a distant memory against a versatile, explosive Tennessee offense. Dylan Sampson punches Florida in the mouth with a pair of first-half scores, and Iamaleava delivers a “worth the hype” performance that has Tennessee fans buzzing. The Vols shake off a pair of early-season losses and avenge last year’s loss in The Swamp.
Week 8: vs. Alabama (L)
Will this be a battle of the best 2 SEC quarterbacks in 2024? That’s a fair question. Another fair question? Was anyone happier to see Nick Saban retire than Tennessee fans? Nope. Even Auburn could beat Saban at Jordan-Hare every other time. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Vols will immediately benefit. Jalen Milroe will benefit slightly more from a questionable secondary than Iamaleava, who has 1 costly turnover late to prevent the Vols from beating the Tide in Knoxville again.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: vs. Kentucky (W)
It’s hard to see a scenario in which this ends up being the first Kentucky team — even one riding a 3-game winning streak — to find the answers against Heupel’s version of Tennessee, especially in Knoxville. The tempo will continue to be a problem for a UK defense that’s coming off its 4th SEC game in as many weeks. Iamaleava’s ability to move the pocket and extend plays is the difference. UK makes it interesting late with some impressive plays by Brock Vandagriff attacking the Tennessee secondary, but the Vols earn a 42-28 win.
Week 11: vs. Mississippi State (W)
There will be a handful of SEC defenses that want no part of Tennessee’s tempo, and it’ll be evident for most of the day. Mississippi State will be one of those teams. A unit that’s hurting for depth isn’t built to go into Knoxville and slow down the Iamaleava version of the Tennessee offense.
Week 12: at Georgia (L)
For all the great things that Heupel has done in his 3 seasons at Tennessee, none of those came against Georgia. In the 2nd and 3rd quarters of those 3 matchups, the Vols have 6 total points (2 field goals). Heupel actually led a scoring drive in each of Tennessee’s 3 opening drives. After that, however, his teams had a combined 23 points against UGA. The 2 touchdowns both came in the final 5 minutes when the Vols were already down at least 3 scores. I’m gonna trust that once again, Kirby Smart will be the one who makes the right adjustments and UGA will take over after the first quarter.
Week 13: vs. UTEP (W)
The dominant White season continues with a pair of long touchdown grabs. Iamaleava and the Tennessee offense bounce back in a big way.
Week 14: at Vanderbilt (W)
In 3 seasons, Josh Heupel is averaging a 35-point victory against Clark Lea. His teams scored a minimum of 45 points, and 2 of those games were with Milton behind center. In other words, no, I don’t think the late-season version of Iamaleava will be the outlier. A 5-touchdown day for the Vols’ quarterback in yet another blowout win puts Lea’s future in jeopardy.
2024 Projection: 8-4 (4-4), 7th in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? No
If this Tennessee season plays out, there’s plenty of room for interpretation. Winning 8 regular-season games would feel like a letdown, especially if it didn’t yield wins against the likes of Georgia, Alabama or Oklahoma. If the best win of the 2024 season is a neutral-site victory against NC State or a home win against Kentucky, some will question the Vols’ ceiling under Heupel.
But again, there’s room for interpretation. What if Tennessee follows a bit of the 2023 LSU script and Iamaleava leads a top-5 offense, but the defense holds the Vols back? There’s a chance that 2024 sets the wheels in motion for Iamaleava to return as one of the best players in the sport with preseason Heisman Trophy buzz entering 2025. If that’s the case, the Heupel offense will get back to 2022 levels and we’ll be reminded why Tennessee is in a much better spot with him than his predecessors.
That’s the path I see for Tennessee. It could be filled with frustration if the defense continuously fails to hold up its end of the bargain. That could cast doubt on the future of Banks, who enters 2024 as one of the SEC’s 4-5 best defensive coordinators. Time will tell.
For now, though, understand that missing the 12-team Playoff isn’t the end of the world, as long as Iamaleava looks the part.
Say it with your chest. “Ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va.”
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
