Texas Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Longhorns in 2025

Texas returned in 2024. To deny that would be foolish, even for the biggest Longhorn skeptic.

Reaching the Playoff semifinals in consecutive years was no small feat. Looking the part of an elite team on the big stage all but once — the 2024 Georgia game — is no small feat, either. In the last 2 seasons, Steve Sarkisian beat 10 teams who were ranked in the AP Top 25 (Tom Herman had 9 in his 4 years in Austin) en route to becoming the lone program in America to earn consecutive semifinal berths in 2023-24.

Did it result in a national title? It didn’t. Yet. It did, however, result in “Texas is back” jokes going to the back burner. There’s an understanding that Year 1 in the SEC was a continuation of Sarkisian’s progression in Austin. That shouldn’t be taken for granted.

In some ways, it set the stage for 2025 to be the most-hyped season in Texas history. After all, the Longhorns are the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Poll for the first time since … ever. Yeah, that’s no joke. That’s not based on hype. That’s based on merit. Oh, wait. You’re gonna tell me that it’s all because of “Arch Manning’s last name.” I’m gonna tell you that it’s because of consecutive semifinal berths, a loaded defense (more on that in a bit) and a new-look offense that’s earned blind faith under Sarkisian.

That’s how we got here. By “here,” I mean at the most anticipated season in Austin in a long, long time. What does that entail? Let’s look into the Crystal Ball.

For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.

So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• Auburn
• Florida
• Georgia
• Kentucky
• LSU
• Mississippi State
• Mizzou
• Oklahoma
• Ole Miss
• South Carolina
• Tennessee

Let’s continue with Texas:

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There’s no avoiding Arch Madness, and everyone knows it

Texas hasn’t avoided the buildup in ways that some might think. That’s not to say that the Longhorns love how much their new starting quarterback is going to be dissected, but by bringing him to SEC Media Days and seeing the way that he was discussed by Sarkisian and his teammates, there’s a sense of confidence above all else. It’s not that Manning is going to be walking on egg shells into his first full season as a starting quarterback. He’s got the backing of everyone in that locker room, and nothing they say about him is going to quiet the hype.

This has been essentially 3 years in the making. Manning’s debut as QB1 — and not just as the backup filling in for Quinn Ewers — will be one of the most scrutinized performances we’ve ever seen in the sport because of who, when and where it is. Facing the defending champs on the road in Week 1 only added to the buildup. Manning will either earn absurd praise, or he’ll be dubbed a bust before the calendar turns to September. That feels fitting, given the way conversations about him have progressed.

For some, anything short of being a generational quarterback in his first season as a starter will be deemed a disappointment. For others, simply establishing himself as one of the nation’s better signal-callers will be living up to the hype in Year 1. The latter is the more measured projection, but this is a Manning in the SEC … what exactly is “measured” anyway?

Manning’s stock could come down to things like getting on the same page as Ryan Wingo and a young group of Texas pass catchers, as well as whether an offensive line with 4 new starters is up for the task. Of course, the return of CJ Baxter after last year’s fall camp ACL tear would go a long way toward establishing a lethal 1-2 punch with the SEC’s lone returning 1,000-yard back, Tre Wisner. Add Manning’s legs to the mix and Texas could have a 3-headed rushing attack that’s as good as any in the sport.

Based on the extremely limited sample size of Manning — he’s the first to admit that he only had 2 starts and he’s got a ton to prove — the early returns haven’t taken anything off the table. Does he need to improve his mental clock and show that he can handle the week in, week out grind of the SEC? Sure, but what first-time starter has those things down?

Manning has a chance to do more than just answer those questions — he’s got a chance to be part of a championship-level team. Why? His surroundings are ideal, and not just because of Sarkisian.

Speaking of that defense …

The best Texas defense of the 21st century?

Texas is coming off a year in which it just delivered its best scoring defense since 2001, when it had a unit allow 13.7 points per game. Mind you, that was for a team that was tasked with playing 16 games, half of which were against AP Top 25 teams. You could argue it was at least the best Texas defense since the 2005 group that helped win a national championship, though the 2024 group was a full point per game better. Make of that what you will.

The better question is whether the 2025 Texas defense will be better than anyone in America. That’s very much in play with what Pete Kwiatkowski returns on that ball.

You’ve got preseason All-Americans at every level with Michael Taaffe, Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons, but it goes beyond that. Texas returns a wealth of production in the front 7, including Texas A&M hero Ethan Burke, former UTSA transfer/late-season star Trey Moore and 2024 starting linebacker Liona Lefau. It also added experienced former Purdue transfer Cole Brevard to plug holes at nose tackle after he was an honorable mention All-Big Ten selection in 2024.

To recap, the unit that ranked No. 3 in FBS in both scoring defense and yards/play allowed returns all of those guys up front. That’s ideal. So, too, is the fact that Taaffee is going to have help in the secondary with way-too-early first-round prospect Malik Muhammad and returning starting corner Jaylon Guilbeau, who’ll enter Year 4 in the defense.

Sure, it’s not a given that Texas will replace the playmaking ability of Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba in the secondary, but that’s about the only negative that one can throw at Texas on defense. It’s the perfect safety blanket for a Year 1 starter like Manning, who shouldn’t have to go out and win a bunch of games 38-35. Shoot, exclude non-offensive scores and you’ll see that Texas only allowed 25 points in regulation 1 time in those 16 games, and it was when the Longhorns turned the ball over 4 times and gave up short fields galore in the regular-season loss to Georgia.

Add it all up and you won’t find a more battle-tested unit returning in college football.

Texas Over/Under Win Total

Odds (via BetMGM)

• Over 9.5 wins: -190
• Under 9.5 wins: +155

Game-by-game predictions

Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Longhorns:

Week 1: at Ohio State (L)

Beating the defending champs in their own building is a tall task for anyone, even the team that went toe-to-toe with them in last year’s semifinal matchup. Of course, there are a lot of new pieces on both sides of the ball. Which inexperience rises to the occasion the best? Ohio State’s new-look defense. Matt Patricia’s debut as Ohio State’s defensive coordinator is a successful one because he dials up pressure to get to Manning. He’s sacked 5 times in a game that leaves some questioning a new Texas offensive line more than any other position group on the field. Better days are ahead, but for the second consecutive year, Ohio State gets the last laugh against Texas in a 24-14 ballgame.

Week 2: vs. San Jose State (W)

A week after the anticlimactic start to the season, Texas has a much better offensive showing. The offensive line keeps Manning upright, and he gets to rest the whole 4th quarter.

Week 3: vs. UTEP (W)

Once again, Manning’s jersey is kept clean all game. Baxter gets into the end zone 3 times for a Texas offense that’s no match for UTEP.

Week 4: vs. Sam Houston (W)

The good times roll against Sam Houston with the first breakout game from Wingo, who goes off for 140 receiving yards and a couple of touchdowns. For the third consecutive week, Manning’s services aren’t needed in the 4th quarter.

Week 5: Bye

A pre-Florida bye week could serve the Longhorns well.

Week 6: at Florida (W)

A Manning winning in The Swamp? Yep. It happens. It happens because Manning shows that he’s learned from his Week 1 mistakes at Ohio State. The ball gets out of his hand quicker and Texas has much more offensive rhythm. There’s a sense that Manning is the more experienced quarterback (even though he’s not) compared to DJ Lagway, who struggles with the lack of rapport he’s developed with his receivers. That leads to the Texas defense getting multiple takeaways to set up short fields for Manning and Co. Wisner caps off those drives with scores and Texas earns a monumental road win in The Swamp.

Week 7: vs. Oklahoma in Dallas (W)

For the first time since 2008, the Red River Rivalry is a top-10 showdown. The buildup is through the roof. But Texas, even with 1-loss, enters as the favorite against an unbeaten Oklahoma squad. By day’s end, it’s clear why that was the case. Texas forces John Mateer in tough spots in his return to his home state, and an Oklahoma offense that’s been a bit up-and-down during its 5-0 start gets exposed. Texas dominates OU’s offensive line, which leads to multiple first-half turnovers, including a pick-6 by Muhammad. The emerging Kobe Black puts the game away for good with a 3rd Texas interception of Mateer, and the Longhorns roll to a 38-14 victory.

Week 8: at Kentucky (W)

For the 3rd consecutive SEC game, Texas makes an opposing quarterback look like a shell of himself. This time, it’s Zach Calzada who can’t handle the Texas heat (I realize that this game is being played in Lexington but you get it). That leads to another mid-game switch to Cutter Boley, who made some nice throws in relief against Texas last year. That plays out again, which gives the home fans in Lexington some moments, but it’s not enough to keep pace with Manning. Texas doesn’t have its cleanest game, but a 31-17 win on the road in the SEC shouldn’t be taken for granted.

Week 9: at Mississippi State (W)

A slow start on the road has some wondering if Texas is about to be on upset alert against a Mississippi State team in search of its first SEC win in 2 years. That’s the byproduct of Texas being a bit on its heels at times against the Year 2 Jeff Lebby offense. But the second half follows a much different script. A slow start becomes a distant memory in Starkville thanks to Manning finding the holes in the Mississippi State secondary.

Week 10: vs. Vanderbilt (W)

Playing at home for the first time since Week 4, Texas comes out like a team that wants to prove a point. Diego Pavia is overwhelmed by the Texas pass rush, and he suffers a rare multi-turnover game. Texas avoids the slow start that it suffered a week earlier, and a 28-7 halftime lead turns into a comfortable victory in Austin.

Week 11: Bye

Will the bye week ahead of Georgia work wonders like it did ahead of the Florida game?

Week 12: at Georgia (L)

It’s hard to assume that Texas will flip the script on Georgia in Athens after the way that last year played out. It was Gunner Stockton who led the comeback effort in Atlanta. That doesn’t mean the Texas defense will be reacting to it the way that it was last year, but in Sanford Stadium, he’ll be put in good spots. By the way, Georgia hasn’t lost there in the 2020s. And if that’s a night game, remember that Georgia hasn’t lost at home at night since 2009. We get a reminder of that, as well as Kirby Smart having Sarkisian’s number. Both defenses do their part in the second half, but Stockton’s fast start is the difference in a 24-20 win that punches UGA’s ticket to its 8th SEC Championship Game berth in 9 years.

Week 13: vs. Arkansas (W)

Two things are working against an upset. One is that by this point, Manning isn’t flustered by defenses that have obvious weaknesses. By late-November, that’s Arkansas. The other thing that’s working against an upset is Hill plays like a man possessed. He forces Taylen Green into 2 turnovers, which leads to SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors. Texas sets up another monster showdown against A&M.

Week 14: vs. Texas A&M (W)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Texas and Texas A&M are squaring off in a game with huge implications. A 2-loss Texas team is trying to avoid being on the fence during Selection Sunday while 3-loss A&M is trying to sneak into the field by going on the road and earning its biggest win of the season. What plays out? A thriller. Both mobile quarterbacks have the full arsenal available and look like they’re going to test both defenses all game. It’s a much better showing for Marcel Reed than the 2024 showdown against Texas, but ultimately, he’s put in too many 3rd-and-long situations late. Texas fends off A&M and pulls out a dramatic 28-24 victory to all but clinch a Playoff berth.

2025 projection: 10-2 (7-1), 3rd in SEC

Did road losses to a pair of elite opponents spoil a path to the Playoff for Texas?

12-team Playoff berth? Yes

When you’ve been there like Texas has, you’re not going to sweat missing out on the SEC Championship. A 10-2 Texas will have some wondering if this is 2024 Ohio State all over again. As in, an extremely talented team that could put it all together at the right time in the 12-team Playoff.

That’s a perfectly acceptable regular season. Of course, there’ll be tons of room for interpretation within that. How does the Ohio State loss age? Is the Georgia loss more competitive than last year in Austin? Is Manning playing at an All-SEC level or does it feel like he’s holding the offense back? Those things will all shape the conversation.

It’d be fascinating to see a year like this play out knowing what awaits Texas in November. Even an 8-1 Texas team won’t be a Playoff lock yet. Why? Well, until we see a 9-3 team get an at-large bid, we shouldn’t assume that it’ll be the case, even for the preseason No. 1 team.

Speaking of that, Texas is trying to do something that only 1 team has accomplished in the last 20 years. That is, win a national title after starting as a preseason No. 1 (2017 Alabama is the lone team to do that). It would be fitting if Texas set itself up for that 20 years after it last won it all. Time will tell if that’s what awaits in 2025.

Getting into the Playoff is all the Longhorns can hope for in the regular season.