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SEC football resumes Saturday at noon ET with a trio of non-conference games, including Missouri at Toledo.
Brian Edwards, a long-time Las Vegas handicapper with an emphasis on SEC football, will provide his thoughts and insights on the line moves throughout the 2014 season. Edwards, a University of Florida graduate, is a weekly radio guest in Las Vegas, Omaha and Memphis and makes regular appearances on Chad Millman’s betting podcast on ESPN.com.
You can check out his work on Twitter or on his website, BrianEdwardsSports.com.
SATURDAY
Florida Atlantic at Alabama
Kickoff: Noon ET
Line: Alabama -40.5 (opened -40.5)
Over/Under: 50.5 (opened 50.5)
Public: 58 percent Crimson Tide
Edwards: “I did some homework on this one. Alabama’s last seven games that they’ve been favored by 38 or more, they’re 1-6 against the spread. The only cover was a 49-0 win as a 48.5-point favorite. They’ve got a couple of injuries. DeAndrew White, the wide receiver, is out. The starting safety Jarrick Williams is going to be out a while. They’re young in the secondary, so that’s a big hit. And Alabama didn’t look good last week.
“I’m not playing this game, but if I had to pick I’d go FAU.”
The Play: Slight lean to Florida Atlantic.
Missouri at Toledo
Kickoff: Noon ET
Line: Missouri -3.5 (opened -6.5)
Over/Under: 60 (opened 60)
Public: 67 percent Missouri
The Move: The line dropped from -6 to -4.5 on Tuesday.
Edwards: “I would presume there were a lot of sharp big-money bets that came in on Toledo that caused that move. I think that’s the wrong side. I made Missouri a nine-point favorite. I know they didn’t cover last week, but I saw what I needed to see from Missouri to know that there’s not a big drop-off from last year. The touchdown run on the first play of the game by South Dakota State was a little bit of a fluke.
“Mauk threw three more touchdowns and his career touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio is 14-to-2 now. We’ll find out more about Missouri’s defense this week, but I didn’t see anything against South Dakota State to downgrade them. They’ve got a great chance to start 4-0 opening SEC play against South Carolina, which looks vulnerable.”
The Play: Missouri.
Arkansas State at Tennessee
Kickoff: Noon ET
Line: Tennessee -17 (opened -17)
Over/Under: 57.5 (opened 57)
Public: 74 percent Vols
Edwards: “I made the line Tennessee -16. I don’t want anything to do with this game. Obviously Tennessee was impressive last week. What really impressed me the most was Justin Worley taking care of the ball. He’s been turnover-prone in the past. He was turnover-free. That’s huge.
“A.J. Johnson is one of the best linebackers in the country and he proved that last week. I already liked their secondary. I’m not going nuts like the Tennessee fan base. If they can beat Florida at home, maybe, they might can get to 8-4, but I doubt it. I think their max is six or seven wins, but they looked good last week. We’ll see.”
The Play: Stay away.
UAB at Mississippi State
Kickoff: 2 p.m. ET
Line: Mississippi State -28 (opened -29)
Over/Under: 57.5 (opened 57.5)
Public: 50 percent split
News: Quarterback Dak Prescott is probable after a report that he injured his foot, which coach Dan Mullen downplayed.
Edwards: “They don’t have anybody behind Prescott, so I think (in a hypothetical situation) Prescott not being able to play could be a five-point difference. He’s a stud and they don’t have anybody behind them.
“UAB was a 2.5-point underdog and won by 38 points against Troy. In terms of decisiveness compared to the number, I’m not sure if anybody else in the country did that. I’m not getting that worked up about it. I still think the line is right. Even though UAB was impressive last week, I’m pretty high on Mississippi State. I didn’t see anything to lower their stock last week, and as long as Prescott’s good to go, it’s a good number and I don’t want to play it.”
The Play: Stay away.
Ohio at Kentucky
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -13 (opened -10)
Over/Under: 52.5 (opened 52.5)
Public: 86 percent Wildcats
The Move: The line jumped three or four points almost immediately.
Edwards: “It was a really bad number that went out. I made Kentucky 14.5. I was headed to the airport and I saw it posted at the Hard Rock and I said, ‘Man, that’s a bad number.’ I was headed to the airport and had the redeye, and when I got home I looked at it at noon on Monday, and it was already at 12, 12.5. I feel like I missed the boat.
“I still lean to Kentucky. I may play Kentucky first half at minus-seven. I wish I would’ve gotten that good early number.
“Ohio lost a lot from last year’s team. They went to a bowl game, but they were not very good last year. I think Kentucky will put it on them.”
The Play: Lean to Kentucky. Play the Wildcats -7 in the first half if you can find it.
Nicholls State at Arkansas
Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
Line: Off (Arkansas -39.5 at 5Dimes)
Over/Under: Off
Public: Off
The Play: Stay away.
Eastern Michigan at Florida
Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
Line: Florida -38 (opened -38.5)
Over/Under: 55 (opened 55)
Public: 63 percent Gators
Edwards: “Florida didn’t score more than 31 points all last season, like I mentioned last week. The offense should be better, but with that many points, there’s no action for me on that one.”
The Play: Stay away.
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -20 (opened -20)
Over/Under: 49.5 (opened 49.5)
Public: 80 percent Rebels
Edwards: “I’m going to pass on this one. I do a contest where I have to pick all the games and I did pick Vandy. I made Ole Miss a 16-point favorite. Obviously Vandy looked atrocious last week, but they do get running back Jerron Seymour back. He had 14 touchdowns last year and he didn’t play last week.
“I think the final score last week got pretty skewed because of the seven turnovers. And look, Ole Miss turned it on in the fourth quarter, but that was a 7-6 game with 12, 13 minutes left. Vanderbilt looked horrible last week. I’m not giving them a mulligan, but I’m not going to say they’re the same old Vandy right away. I think there’s a bit of an overreaction on them. Vandy’s defense didn’t play that bad. They had to work with short fields all week.”
The Play: Vanderbilt or pass.
San Jose State at Auburn
Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -32.5 (opened -31)
Over/Under: 66 (opened 66)
Public: 89 percent Tigers
Edwards: “San Jose State lost their outstanding quarterback last year in David Fales. I haven’t seen them play, but it’s just a big number. I don’t know enough about San Jose State and I don’t want to lay that many points.”
The Play: Stay away.
East Carolina at South Carolina
Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
Line: South Carolina -16.5 (opened -16)
Over/Under: 64.5 (opened 64.5)
Public: 61 percent Gamecocks
Edwards: “I made South Carolina 12.5. I like East Carolina. They won 10 games last year. They went to Chapel Hill and won 55-31 at North Carolina. I know N.C. State sucked last year, but they went to Raleigh and won 42-28. They only lost 15-10 to Virginia Tech. They’ve been against some big schools. Shane Carden has a 59-to-20 career touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s going to overtake David Garrard as the school’s all-time leading passer in mid-October if he stays healthy. He’s got a big-time NFL prospect at receiver in Justin Hardy, who’s already the school’s all-time leader at receiver.
“It’s a vintage look-ahead spot for South Carolina with Georgia on deck, and even more because they lost to A&M. In terms of the SEC East race, they fall three games behind Georgia if they lose next week, because Georgia will have the head-to-head on them. So they’re essentially done if they lose to Georgia. This being a non-conference game, it’s your vintage look-ahead situation.
“East Carolina’s got a similar offense to Texas A&M, and South Carolina’s young secondary just got mauled. I’m all about East Carolina catching the points. To a lesser extent, I like the over a little. The over is 8-2 in East Carolina’s last 10 games. Dylan Thompson didn’t look great, but he did have four touchdowns last week. Mike Davis is a little healthier this week. I think South Carolina’s going to score a lot of points and I think East Carolina’s going to get theirs.”
The Play: East Carolina with a decent lean to the over.
Sam Houston State at LSU
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Off (LSU -32.5 at 5Dimes)
Over/Under: Off.
Public: Off.
The Play: Stay away.
Lamar at Texas A&M
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Off (Texas A&M -51 at 5Dimes)
Over/Under: Off (60.5 at 5Dimes)
Public: Off
Edwards: “I didn’t have A&M in my Top 25, and I’ve got them ninth in my power rankings this week. I was tempted to go a lot higher, but I still think the defense is very, very shaky. I thought they’d be fine offensively, but I wasn’t thinking it would be like that. They looked better. Even though Mike Evans was gone, Ricky Seals-Jones is a monster.
“We also take away that Kevin Sumlin is one of the top five coaches in America. And there’s not going to be any drop-off at A&M this year, which I thought there would be. I take away that this is a Top 10 team. I’m still not sold on the defense, but maybe they’re going to be a little better. I think their defense last year would’ve given up more than 28 points at South Carolina.”
The Play: Stay away.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
