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The Florida-Alabama game ought to be an interesting case study in turnover margin.
Florida’s plus-seven turnover margin is first in the SEC thanks to four fumble recoveries and an interception against Eastern Michigan and three interceptions against Kentucky.
The Gators have committed one turnover, a Jeff Driskel interception.
Ole Miss has intercepted a conference-best eight passes in just three games, which is best in the country. But Bo Wallace has thrown four interceptions the other direction, preventing the Rebels from challenging for the conference lead in turnover margin.
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Vanderbilt has nine turnovers, including seven against Temple in Week 1. To put it another way, Ole Miss and Mississippi State each have five turnovers, most in the SEC other than the Commodores. Add together the two most turnover-prone teams in the conference and you get a figure just one digit higher than Vandy’s total.
Alabama has forced the fewest turnovers in the SEC, recovering one fumble and failing to intercept a pass. South Carolina and Auburn haven’t recovered an opponent fumble and Vanderbilt hasn’t picked off a pass.
| Team | Turnover Margin | Fumbles Gained | Interceptions | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Florida | +7 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 2. Missouri | +6 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| T3. Ole Miss | +4 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
| T3. Kentucky | +4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| T5. Mississippi State | +3 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| T5. LSU | +3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| T7. Georgia | +2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| T7. Tennessee | +2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| T9. Auburn | +1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| T9. Arkansas | +1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 11. Texas A&M | -1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| T12. South Carolina | -2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| T12. Alabama | -2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | -5 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
Numerous analytical studies have proven that recovering fumbles is not a skill. It’s luck. It regresses to the mean. In other words, if your team is recovering fumbles at an unusual rate, it’s likely that it will begin to slide toward 50 percent. The same holds true for a poor fumble recovery rate.
It’s early, but so far, Kentucky (5 of 6) and Florida (4 of 5) have been lucky in terms of recovering fumbles. Alabama (1 of 6) and Auburn (1 of 8) have been unlucky.
Missouri’s defense has forced a conference-best nine fumbles.
The football has slipped to the ground a league-high 13 times during Vanderbilt’s three games this season.
Meanwhile, South Carolina hasn’t recovered a fumble in three games.
| Team | Fumble Recovery % | Fumbles | Opponent Fumbles | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Kentucky | 83.3% | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 2. Florida | 80% | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 3. LSU | 66.7% | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4. Tennessee | 62.5% | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 5. Georgia | 57.1% | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6. Missouri | 54.5% | 2 | 9 | 6 |
| 7. Vanderbilt | 53.8% | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| T8. Mississippi State | 50.0% | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| T8. Ole Miss | 50.0% | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10. Arkansas | 44.4% | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 11. Texas A&M | 37.5% | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 12. Alabama | 16.7% | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 13. Auburn | 12.5% | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 14. South Carolina | 0.0% | 1 | 2 | 0 |
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
