Week 6 SEC Primer: Missouri has 1 path to the Playoff, and it runs through Texas A&M

Everything you need to know about the Week 6 SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Missouri at Texas A&M (-2.5)

(All betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.)

The stakes

The calendar says October, the month when we start to learn who’s the wheat and who’s the chaff in conference play. Mizzou and A&M are both ranked, both looking forward to favorable schedules over the second half of the season, and both plan on having some staying power in the Playoff chase. The winner in College Station takes a big step toward remaining relevant for the long haul. The loser takes a big step toward the Gator Bowl.

In Missouri’s case, describing the schedule as “favorable” is an understatement. For a team ranked No. 9 in the major polls, the product on the field is still sorting itself out. But Mizzou undeniably won the lottery under the SEC’s new, post-division scheduling format, missing Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas in the league draw; barring a significant upset, all that’s standing in the way of a second consecutive 10-win regular season is A&M on Saturday, an Oct. 26 trip to Alabama, and a Nov. 9 date against Oklahoma.

It’s a little too early to begin making assumptions about where the threshold for earning an at-large bid is going to fall in the first year of the expanded CFP, but it is safe to say that if they take care of business elsewhere, the Tigers only need to win 1 of those 3 games to ensure that at the very least they’re going to be in the mix. Win the first one, and all those vague calculations will begin to give way to an actual path.

Texas A&M has less margin for error with the shadow of its opening-night flop against Notre Dame still looming. But the Aggies are 4-0 since, including a 2-0 start in SEC play against Florida and Arkansas — technically they’re alone in first place in the conference standings — and a win over a top-10 opponent would put a real gust in their sails heading into an open date. It would also set them up for a dark-horse run over the back half of the schedule: Their 2 toughest remaining tests, LSU and Texas, are both at home. Whether that presents as an opportunity or a slog during their week off depends on what happens against Mizzou.

The stat: 7.1 yards

That’s Missouri QB Brady Cook‘s average gain per pass attempt this season, down nearly 2 full yards below his average YPA in 2023 despite a slight uptick in completion percentage. In fact, the gap is the result of an even steeper decline in Cook’s average gain per completion, from 13.6 yards in ’23 (17th nationally) to 10.6 yards in ’24 (98th).

Chalk it up to the schedule, the small sample size, or the respect opposing secondaries have for Mizzou’s next-level wideouts, but through 4 games, Cook is throwing deep less often and with less success. He’s just 3-for-14 on attempts of 20+ air yards, a column he excelled in last year, settling for more short, high-percentage throws that give his receivers a chance to make hay after the catch — not the worst idea when one of those receivers is YAC monster Luther Burden III. But although the Tigers are relatively YAC-reliant, with the majority of their total passing/receiving output coming after the catch, they’ve been relatively low-wattage as well, averaging a pedestrian 5.1 yards per YAC opportunity. That’s down from 6.7 yards in 2023.

That’s difficult to square with the presence of Burden, who has forced 13 missed tackles on 19 receptions and averaged a solid 8.1 yards per YAC opportunity, relatively unchanged from last year (8.4). But the surrounding cast has not supplied much juice on that front — Cook has yet to throw a touchdown pass to anyone other than Burden — while the downfield attack has been nonexistent. At least one of those trends needs to change.

The big question: Who is Texas A&M’s quarterback?

Yes, nominal starter Conner Weigman is back atop the official depth chart this week after a 3-game absence due to a nagging shoulder injury. Take that development with a grain of salt. For one thing, coach Mike Elko described Weigman’s status as a “game-time decision” earlier in the week, consistent with his statement last week that the call between Weigman and redshirt freshman Marcel Reed is going to be a game-time decision for the rest of the season. For another, regardless of Weigman’s health, his understudy has acquitted himself well in relief. While Weigman was on ice, Reed made himself at home as QB1, accounting for 8 total touchdowns, committing zero turnovers, and adding an extra dimension to the offense as a runner. (A dimension that his offensive coordinator, Collin Klein, can certainly appreciate given his own dual-threat background.) Between Reed’s emergence and fresh memories of Weigman’s Week 1 meltdown against Notre Dame, A&M fans have not exactly been desperate for the latter’s speedy return to the lineup.

So: Fluid situation. For his part, Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz dismissed the depth chart outright, telling reporters at his weekly Monday press conference that the alleged pecking order isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. “I know on their depth chart, it says the other kid (Weigman) is the starting quarterback,” Drinkwitz said. “But that’s just semantics, in my opinion. The guy (Reed) is 3-0 as the starter and whether he’s listed as questionable or whatever, I don’t see him going back. … They clearly have a different offensive identity with this guy as the quarterback and they’ve developed an offense that fits around his system. It’s a lot different than the first game of the year.”

That it is, to the Aggies’ relief. Weigman turned in a nightmare outing against the Irish, finishing 12-for-30 passing for 3.3 yards per attempt and 2 interceptions in a 23-13 loss; A&M didn’t crack the end zone until the 4th quarter, and subsequently failed to gain another first down on any of its last 3 possessions with the game still within reach. Weigman reportedly suffered the shoulder injury in that game, and his status since has been an enigma. He started the following week, a blowout win over McNeese State, and dressed but didn’t play against Florida in Week 3. He hasn’t dressed the past 2 weeks, leading to speculation that the injury might be more serious than a day-to-day nuisance. We’ll see. As it stands, the longer Weigman lingers, the easier it is to think of it as Reed’s job to lose.

The key matchup: Missouri OT Marcus Bryant vs. Texas A&M edge Nic Scourton

A&M has question marks all over the secondary, and a couple of bona fide red flags — particularly in the nickel role, where Florida transfer Jaydon Hill has struggled in the early going and faces one of the toughest assignments in college football opposite Luther Burden III in the slot. (PFF has Hill down for 14 catches, 215 yards and 2 touchdowns allowed on 18 targets, including a 75-yard TD in last week’s win over Arkansas.) But they can’t burn you if they can’t block you, and getting after the passer is the Aggies’ biggest strength. The pass rush feasted against the Razorbacks, generating 17 pressures and 3 sacks, 2 by Scourton, an aspiring first-rounder who led the Big Ten in sacks in 2023 at Purdue. His strip sack on the Hogs’ final possession was effectively the game-ender.

https://twitter.com/AggieFootball/status/1840163790366601569/

Bryant, a 5th-year transfer from SMU, has played a lot of football but is still getting up to SEC speed as Missouri’s new left tackle. He’s been cited for 6 pressures allowed in 4 games, including a sack opposite the only future pro he’s faced, Boston College’s Donovan Ezeiruaku. The edge-rushing rotation of Scourton, Shemar Stewart and Cashius Howell is as steep a test as Bryant and his well-seasoned counterpart on the right side, Armand Membou, will face all year.

The verdict …

They made this one a toss-up for a reason, folks. The narrow point spread in A&M’s favor is strictly a nod to home-field advantage, which is mitigated the by the fact that a) the Aggies have lost 3 of their past 4 at home vs. ranked opponents, and b) it’s an early kickoff at the very sober hour of 11 am Missouri has underwhelmed in its 2 games vs. real competition, beating Boston College by 6 and Vanderbilt by 3 in double overtime; meanwhile, A&M’s outings have run the gamut from ugly (Notre Dame) to promising (Florida) to just getting by (Bowling Green, Arkansas).

What’s the rule? When in doubt, defer to the quarterback you trust more and/or the best player on the field. In this one, that’s Brady Cook and Luther Burden, who have a chance to embark on a special season in their first game back on the national radar. In the meantime, there is plenty of doubt.
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• Missouri 24 | Texas A&M 19

Auburn at Georgia (-22.5)

How will Georgia respond to last week’s epic, emotionally chaotic loss at Alabama? Chaos notwithstanding, the Dawgs still have a very viable path to the Playoff — albeit one that runs through road trips to Texas and Ole Miss and a November visit from Tennessee.

What they don’t have now is margin for error.

Ideally, the they’d love to beat their oldest rivals so thoroughly that the turnover-prone Tigers start coughing up the ball like a video game character erupting in a shower of coins when he takes a hit. A blowout would go a long way toward resetting the Dawgs as frontrunners who can afford to file away the Bama game in the “shame somebody had to lose” file and move on. If they come out looking sluggish, on the other hand, as they have so far in all 3 games vs. Power 4 competition, then it might be time to consider the other possibility: They have real flaws that risk relegating them to the bubble.
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Georgia 31 | • Auburn 16

Ole Miss (-9.5) at South Carolina

Another team in rebound mode, Ole Miss has to get back on its feet in a hurry or risk letting last week’s deflating loss to Kentucky take the air out of its entire season. Unlike Georgia, the Rebels’ biggest flaw is plain as day: A rebuilt offensive line that’s not quite up to snuff for a Playoff contender. Not that they haven’t made the effort. Adding viable bodies in the trenches was a priority in the portal, which yielded three veteran o-linemen with starting experience at the Power 5 level.

For all their experience, though, the talent level up front still leaves a lot to be desired against NFL-ready competition. Kentucky, led by future pro Deone Walker, generated pressure on Jaxson Dart largely without sending extra rushers, with 3 of its 4 sacks coming on non-blitzing downs, per PFF. Given the opportunity to tee off, South Carolina’s edge-rushing tandem of Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart is capable of making Dart’s life just as miserable.
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• Ole Miss 32 | South Carolina 20

Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas

Nico Iamaleava makes eyes wide, but Tennessee owes its 4-0 start largely to the defense, especially in its Week 4 win at Oklahoma. The Vols rank No. 1 or No. 2 nationally in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, 3rd-down defense, yards per play allowed, plays of 20+ yard allowed and first downs allowed. That has afforded Josh Heupel the luxury of taking it slow with his gifted young quarterback, and Iamaleava with plenty of margin for error for working out the kinks. In another context, a first-year starter who’d thrown a pick-6 and lost 2 fumbles inside his own 40-yard line in his team’s 2 biggest games to date might be considered volatile; opposite Tennessee’s D, the glitches have barely left a trace.
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• Tennessee 34 | Arkansas 17

Alabama (-22.5) at Vanderbilt

It’s probably giving Vandy a little too much credit to classify this as a “trap game,” considering the Commodores haven’t played Bama within single digits since 2006, haven’t topped 10 points in the series since 1999, and haven’t won in the series since 1984. The Tide might not be rolling into Nashville with a full tank coming off last week’s emotionally draining win over Georgia, but the explosiveness they have on hand even a version of this team running on fumes is capable of covering a 3-touchdown spread. The last time they came out looking listless and sloppy against a heavy underdog, against South Florida in Week 2, they scored 3 late touchdowns in a span of a little over 4 minutes to win by 26.
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• Alabama 44 | Vanderbilt 13

UCF (-2.5) at Florida

How grim is the forecast in Gainesville? Florida actually opened as a slight favorite against UCF, only for the line to immediately flip in favor of the Knights, who are coming off a 48-21 beatdown at the hands of Colorado in their own stadium. So much for The Swamp’s reputation as a hostile environment. The fact is, Florida is desperate for a win, or should be: Next week’s trip to Tennessee begins the nightmare portion of the schedule that pits the Gators against 5 currently-ranked opponents in their next 6 games, in all of which they will be considered heavy underdogs. UCF is arguably the most winnable game they have left (give or take Kentucky) until the season finale at Florida State. Billy Napier doesn’t have that long. If he still has any chance of survival — a very big if — this is one he’s gotta have.
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• Florida 36 | UCF 31

OFF THIS WEEK: Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas

Scoreboard

Week 5 record: 4-2 straight-up | 4-2 vs. spread
Season record: 51-9 straight-up | 37-20 vs. spread

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.