Welcome to a bowl, Mississippi State … or at least, that’s what the APR tells us

Welcome to the bowl season, Mississippi State!

That is what the unofficial math tells us today: We will need at least two 5-7 teams to fill in the 40 bowl matchups and Mississippi State is No. 2 on the list of 5-7 teams that would get in.

How do we reach that conclusion? Check it out:

There are 75 bowl-eligible teams (meaning a non-losing record) at the end of this week. Two teams from the Sun Belt Conference, which completes its regular season next weekend, can join that list.

On top of that, you can add 6-7 Hawaii, which gets in per the NCAA’s list of requirements for teams that don’t reach automatic bowl eligibility. No. 2 on the list of conditions for teams to fill the bowl spots are teams that go 6-7. They take priority over 5-7 teams.

That makes 76 for now, 78 if the two Sun Belt teams win.

After that, you go to 5-7 teams and will need at least two. Which ones? The handbook goes by the ones with the best APR (Academic Progress Rate) scores.

And Mississippi State and Texas are tied for the second best APR at .971. And the tie-breaker there goes to Mississippi State, which has a better single-year APR than Texas for the most recent year, .970-.968.

So count the Bulldogs in, if you follow all that.

Here’s how it breaks down:

AAC

Qualified (7): South Florida (10-2), Houston (9-3), Navy (8-2), Temple (9-3), Tulsa (9-3), Memphis (8-4), Central Florida (6-6).

Still hoping (1): SMU (5-7).

ACC

Qualified (11): Clemson (10-1), Louisville (9-3), Virginia Tech (9-3), North Carolina (8-4), Florida State (9-3), Miami (7-4), Pittsburgh (8-4), Georgia Tech (8-4), Wake Forest (6-6), Boston College (6-6), North Carolina State (6-6).

Big 12

Qualified (6): Oklahoma (9-2), Oklahoma State (9-2), West Virginia (9-2), Kansas State (7-4), Baylor (6-5), TCU (6-5) .

Still hoping (2): Texas (5-7), Texas Tech (5-7).

Big Ten

Qualified (10): Ohio State (11-1), Michigan (10-2), Wisconsin (10-2), Penn State (10-2), Nebraska (9-3), Minnesota (8-4), Iowa (8-4), Indiana (6-6), Maryland (6-6), Northwestern (6-6).

Conference USA

Qualified (6): Western Kentucky (9-3), Old Dominion (9-3), Louisiana Tech (8-4), Middle Tennessee (8-4), Texas-San Antonio (6-6), Southern Mississippi (6-6).

Still hoping (1): North Texas (5-7).

Independents

Qualified (2): BYU (8-4), Army (6-5).

MAC

Qualified (6): Western Michigan (12-0), Toledo (9-3), Ohio (8-4), Eastern Michigan (7-5), Central Michigan (6-6), Miami (6-6).

Still hoping (2): Akron (5-7), Northern Illinois (5-7).

Mountain West

Qualified (7): Boise State (10-2), San Diego State (9-3), Air Force (9-3), Wyoming (8-4), New Mexico (8-4), Colorado State (7-5), Hawaii (6-7).

Still hoping (1): Nevada (5-7).

Pac-12

Qualified (6): Washington (11-1), Colorado (10-2), Stanford (9-3), USC (9-3), Washington State (8-4), Utah (8-4).

Still hoping (2): Arizona State (5-7), California (5-7).

SEC

Qualified (11): Alabama (12-0), Florida (8-3), Tennessee (8-4), Auburn (8-4), Texas A&M (8-4), LSU (7-4), Georgia (7-5), Arkansas (7-5),  Kentucky (7-5), South Carolina (6-6), Vanderbilt (6-6).

Still hoping (2): Ole Miss (5-7), Mississippi State (5-7).

Sun Belt

Qualified (4): Arkansas State (6-5), Appalachian State (9-3), Troy (9-2), Idaho (7-4).

Still hoping (4): South Alabama (5-6, vs. 3-8 New Mexico State), Louisiana-Lafayette (5-6, vs. 4-7 UL-Monroe), Georgia Southern (4-7, vs. 9-2 Troy), Louisiana-Monroe (4-7, vs. 5-6 UL-Lafayette).

Ranking the APRs

Here are the top APRs among the teams that are 5-6 or could finish 5-6. With only four possible spots, it would appear this is the pool of possible 5-7 teams that could reach a bowl:

1. North Texas (5-7) 995
2. Mississippi State (5-7) 971
3. Texas (5-7) 971
4. Northern Illinois (5-7) 970

Gary Laney