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What’s Billy Napier’s job security for 2025? Why Florida’s coach will have more grace than expected
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When I saw Florida’s regular-season over/under at 6.5 wins, my mind went back to a familiar place.
Discussing Billy Napier’s job security became an admittedly tiresome subject in 2024, though I understand why it had to be done. The historically daunting schedule, the horrendous start, the play-calling decisions, etc. It was all fuel to that ever-burning fire until, well, it was put out by Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin ahead of the Texas game. Florida lost that matchup, but then proceeded to close the season on a 4-game winning streak with DJ Lagway as the starter.
And yet, even as Florida shows up as a fixture on way-too-early Top 25 rankings with Lagway fully established as a household name at the sport, here we are asking the question for a team that the oddsmakers have pegged at 6 or 7 regular-season wins.
What would get Napier fired?
In some ways, that question is more complex than it was in 2024. In other ways, it could be easier than ever to determine what would cost Napier his job in Year 4.
The complexity could also explain why Napier has more grace than some might assume when looking at that over/under of 6.5 wins. It’s definitely too black and white to assume that a 6-6 season would get Napier. For the same reasons Lagway’s emergence coincided with that vote of confidence in 2024, it could again be Napier’s security blanket in 2025. As our Neil Blackmon will tell you, that decision to retain Napier was the result of “some of the throws that Lagway made against Kentucky.”
Florida wants to see Lagway through. If Napier goes 5-7 but Lagway is at the mercy of a regressing defense, why would we assume that change is imminent? You’re likely not retaining Lagway in his pre-Draft season if you move on from Napier, and any Year 1 with a new coach would have a less promising situation at quarterback.
Of course, there’s a scenario in which Florida goes 5-7 and Lagway doesn’t progress. In that scenario, he instead looks like someone who still makes freshman mistakes and his surroundings (play-caller, weapons, defense that gets stops, etc.) are limiting him instead of helping him. That would fall on Napier. So, too, would be that scenario playing out for a 7-5 Florida team, but there’d be some built-in grace knowing that Florida didn’t regress in the regular season and Lagway would still have his pre-Draft season in 2026.
Starting to see why there’s a bit of nuance here?
There’s not, however, going to be a limiting factor like a buyout. Florida was willing to cover that $26.5 million buyout if 2024 finished as it started. That didn’t happen. Instead, the Gators reportedly planned on using that $10 million it “saved” to fund NIL efforts. Napier is guaranteed 85% of his remaining contract, which means he’d be owed nearly $19.4 million if fired at the end of the 2025 season. That’s still a decent amount of money, but it’s not a dealbreaker.
When Stricklin negotiated Dan Mullen’s new contract after an SEC Championship berth in Year 3, it was done so with an increase in base pay, but the buyout remained at $12 million. It’d be extremely rare for an SEC coach to head into Year 5 of his initial contract (that would be the 2026 season for Napier) without either an extension or a raise. Napier’s deal runs through 2028, so he still has 3 years remaining after the 2025 season.
All of that context is worth remembering. It’s also worth remembering that Florida could be an underdog in 4 of its 6 first games with trips to LSU, Miami and Texas A&M, plus a home matchup with possible preseason No. 1 Texas (Arch Manning vs. Lagway will be must-see TV). For all the goodwill that Napier and the Gators built up for figuring things out down the stretch in 2024, things can change in a hurry. He knows that as well as anyone.
If Florida starts 2-4 and Lagway looks overwhelmed, Napier’s job will be in question again. It might not be wise to paint his future in terms of end-of-season record when we know these decisions now come much earlier than that.
Optics matter. They mattered when Miami took over The Swamp to open last season. They mattered when Florida watched Lagway put on a show in a blowout against thorn-in-the-side Kentucky.
If Florida starts off as a top-15 team and looks the part during that challenging start to the season, there’ll be grace. Of course, the Gators can be competitive in those games as a likely underdog and still be on the wrong end of thrillers because of late-game Napier decisions. Think about that Tennessee game. The decision not to go for the 2-point conversion after Lagway’s heroic throw in relief of the injured Graham Mertz is still being scrutinized. You can only make mistakes like that so many times and have the support of the administration.
Context and optics will be everything for Napier in 2025. We could be in for another winding road to determine his future. For all we know, Napier will start off 6-1 and negotiate an extension before the Georgia game. Crazier things have happened.
I suppose “crazy” by Florida standards would be a post-Urban Meyer coach reaching Year 5 for the first time. It just might get crazy in Gainesville in 2025.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
