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Before Mizzou’s dominant takedown of No. 4 Alabama on Wednesday night, you could make the argument that Dennis Gates’ team was flying under-the-radar in a stacked SEC.
Missouri did stumble out of the gate, after all, with a season-opening loss to Memphis. After rattling off 10-straight wins, Mizzou also fell to Illinois and then lost decisively to Auburn. As it turns out, all those losses did was provide cover for one of the very best teams in the country. The blemishes kept the attention off the Tigers even as they maneuvered their way through the SEC gauntlet.
But now? Now, Mizzou should have everyone’s attention.
In just his 3rd year at the helm, Gates has built a squad that looks poised to make a deep run in March. It’s a stunning turnaround for a program that went 0-18 in SEC play just a year ago.
One thing to look for when trying to identify possible Final Four contenders is a truly elite 5-man lineup. It’s not necessarily a requirement — there’s always a level of unpredictability with March Madness — but it helps.
Mizzou absolutely fits the bill. According to EvanMiya, the 5-man group of Tamar Bates, Mark Mitchell, Tony Perkins, Anthony Robinson II and Trent Pierce has an opponent-adjusted net rating of +47.7 on the season. That means that lineup is outscoring its opponents (adjusted for strength) by more than 47 points per 100 possessions. That’s outrageous. Perhaps more granularly, that unit — which is Mizzou’s most-played 5-man lineup this season — has the nation’s 2nd-best opponent-adjusted defensive rating this season, per EvanMiya (min. 125 possessions). Its adjusted defensive rating of 69.7 is 2nd only to Robert Morris this season.
And defense isn’t even the primary reason for excitement with this Mizzou team. Rather, it’s the offense that has to the potential to carry the Tigers to San Antonio. That reality was on full display as Mizzou hung 110 points on the Crimson Tide earlier this week.
The advanced stats back up what the eye test has said for weeks now. Since Jan. 7, Mizzou has the nation’s No. 1 most-efficient offense according to BartTorvik. The Tigers are averaging over 1.3 points per possession over that span (adjusted for opponent).
The crux of its offense is built around Mitchell, who should be in consideration for All-SEC honors given the season he’s put together in Columbia. The Duke transfer is averaging a shade under 14 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists per game this season. While those stats may not pop off the page, his physicality and skill is what allows Mizzou to put opposing defenses in constant conflict.
If you want to play him straight up, good luck — he’s shooting 64% at the rim this season and is incredibly difficult to deal with at 6-9, 230 pounds.
Think you can double-team him? Best wishes to you. Mizzou is loaded with high-level shooters who space the floor brilliantly. Caleb Grill, Tamar Bates, Tony Perkins and Anthony Robinson III are all above 40% from 3 during SEC play. There are 17 players in the SEC who are shooting better than 40% from distance on a volume of at least 1.7 attempts per game. The Tigers have 4 of them. As a team, Mizzou shoots nearly 38% from 3-point range. The SEC average — already a high bar — is closer to 33%. Mitchell rarely turns it over and knows how to move the ball along to create open looks for his teammates.
If you don’t believe me, take it from Oklahoma coach Porter Moser — who was on the receiving end of one of Mitchell’s best games of the year in-which he went to the foul line 18 times by himself. Mizzou won that game 82-58 despite making just 4 3-pointers all night.
“You know we had to make a decision if you’re single-covering Mitchell or not,” Moser said after the game. “And he made us pay. We held them to 4 3’s, but the other areas of the game, we really struggled. Guarding the ball and guarding [Mark] Mitchell one-on-one and sending them to the foul line 35 times. When you shoot the ball the way they do, they’ve got shooters everywhere. They play really, really hard.”
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The Oklahoma game is another example of why it’s easy to feel good about Mizzou’s offensive shot profile. More specifically, its free throw attempt rate. The Tigers currently lead the country with a free throw attempt rate north of 49%. While that may not be the most appealing style of basketball, it’s certainly effective — and often translates in March.
In 2024, there were 4 teams who made the NCAA Tournament and posted a free throw attempt rate above 41%. All 4 teams met or exceeded their seed expectations in March. The list also included Purdue, who made it all the way to the national title game.
Against Alabama, Mizzou got to the foul line a staggering 47 times. Mitchell took 12 and Grill took 11. Alabama had no answers for a Tigers’ offense that’s been humming at an elite level for weeks.
That victory over Alabama was Mizzou’s 3rd of the season vs. an AP Top-5 opponent, matching Auburn for the most in college basketball this season. Since 2002-03, there have only been 13 other teams to accomplish that feat in a single season. Five made it to at least the Elite Eight and 3 more reached the Sweet 16.
Mizzou is not matchup-proof. Seeding and draw in the NCAA Tournament will still have an outsized impact on the Tigers’ chances to reach San Antonio. That’s true for virtually any team in the country. I wouldn’t be excited about seeing Duke in Mizzou’s region, for instance. The Blue Devils, ironically, are one of a few teams in the country who can theoretically play Mitchell straight up and hold their own offensively against the Tigers. Auburn is another team who could give Mizzou fits, as we saw earlier this season.
But there’s a lot of reason to believe in this Mizzou team as March approaches — particularly when sportsbooks like BetMGM are pricing the Tigers at +900 to make the Final Four even after they dismantled the Tide.
To beat Missouri in this year’s Big Dance, it’s going to take a team that has serious size and athleticism in the front court. It will require an opponent who can stick to shooters on the perimeter for a full 40 minutes and it will necessitate a team who can make a whole lot of 3-pointers on the other end.
Frankly, if you’re not Duke or Auburn, you may need more than a little bit of luck to beat Mizzou in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
