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Why new Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is the ultimate SEC wild card in 2025
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My challenge of the offseason is settling on how John Mateer will perform in 2025.
I know. I live a blessed life (fixing up the backyard will actually be a bigger challenge, but you didn’t come here to read about that).
So far, the most definitive stance I’ve taken on the new Oklahoma signal-caller was leaving him out of my way-too-early ranking of the SEC’s top 10 quarterbacks for 2025. I had him as high as No. 7, but then talked myself out of it. After those rankings, I dug into Mateer even more and admittedly had some regrets.
All I know is that Mateer has the widest range of outcomes of any SEC player in 2025.
As you can tell, I wasn’t quite as definitive on Mateer as Brent Venables was when he brought him in to take over his historically woeful offense. Of course, pairing Mateer with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, who coached him last season at Washington State, was the other part of the packaged deal. Venables did a lighter version of the New Mexico State-to-Vanderbilt migration, which saw the Commodores have a 5-win improvement with All-SEC quarterback Diego Pavia. He became the first quarterback to transfer from an FBS school to an SEC school and earn all-conference honors in his first season there (that excludes JUCO transfers like Cam Newton and Chad Kelly).
Maybe that context factored into my initial Mateer thoughts too negatively. Instead of thinking about the SEC quarterback transfers who struggled after entering the conference — Devin Leary, Payton Thorne, Robby Ashford, etc. — I should instead look closer at the transfers who impressed upon arrival. Think Hendon Hooker, Jayden Daniels, Will Levis or even Joe Burrow, who started slow that first season after he was a post-spring transfer. Unlike Levis, Burrow and even Daniels, who didn’t join LSU until spring had already begun, Mateer will also have the benefit of a full spring in his new stomping grounds.
Transfer quarterbacks, in general, have had a wide range of Year 1 outcomes. You could argue that Mateer had a wide range of individual game outcomes in his Year 1 as a starter in 2024.
He had 6 games in which PFF graded him 61.0 or below as a passer, but he also led FBS with a 183.9 QB rating in November. PFF charted Mateer as being responsible for allowing the 2nd-most sacks of any quarterback in FBS (14), but he also finished No. 4 in FBS with a 94.3 NFL quarterback rating under pressure. He had 13 turnover-worthy plays when kept clean (tied for 3rd-most in FBS), but Mateer also ranked No. 15 in FBS with 16 of PFF’s big-time throws when kept clean.
Starting to see why there’s a significant pros and cons list with Mateer? Let’s take it a step further.
On throws 20 yards downfield, nobody in FBS threw more interceptions (6) than Mateer, but he also had 12 touchdown passes (T-No. 7 in FBS) in those situations. He was responsible for the 2nd-highest allowed pressure percentage (33.7%) among FBS quarterbacks, but he was also No. 6 in FBS in rushing yards via quarterback scrambles. He had 6 games in which he took at least 3 sacks, but he was tied for No. 1 among FBS quarterbacks with 54 missed tackles forced.
On top of that, he only has 1 season as an FBS starter and it came against mostly Group of 5 competition, but he was responsible for 44 touchdowns in 12 games.
That’s a wild card. If we’re being honest, his coach is a bit of a wild card, too.
Venables is the same guy who brought Jackson Arnold to SEC Media Days as a sophomore and first-time starter … only to bench him before halftime of his first career SEC start. Arnold is off to Auburn, but the guy that he benched him for, Michael Hawkins Jr., is still in Norman. Hawkins had ups and downs as a true freshman signal-caller. He’s also not as turnover-prone as Arnold was, though it’s worth noting that when Hawkins threw his first career interceptions in the midst of a disastrous first quarter against South Carolina, Venables then went back to Arnold for the remainder of the regular season.
One would think that Mateer’s leash will be longer than Arnold’s. One would also think that Mateer won’t lose his top 5 receivers before the calendar turns to October, which sounds more like some twisted College Football ’25 development than what Oklahoma actually endured in 2024. That played a part in Arnold’s struggles, though obviously it didn’t give him grace to keep his job.
Mateer’s floor is losing his job midseason. Yes, even with Arbuckle on board. In that scenario, Mateer probably has consecutive weeks of dud, overly aggressive, turnover-heavy games that prompt the defensive-minded Venables to bail on his prized portal addition in an effort to avoid a 3rd losing season in 4 years on the job.
The ceiling, however, is that Mateer fuels a bounce-back season that gets OU into the Playoff discussion (the Sooners are 70-to-1 favorites to win the national title on DraftKings). He proves to be the field-stretcher that OU needed after Iowa and Michigan were the only FBS teams with fewer 20-yard passes. Combined with his legs, Mateer is able to keep defenses honest in ways that they weren’t forced to be against the OU offense in 2024.
So which seems more likely? Your answer to that question probably depends on where you stand on Oklahoma. If you’re a Venables believer, you’re ready to declare that Mateer will become a household name. If you’re not a Venables believer, you’re ready to declare that Mateer will become a backup by season’s end. Both outcomes would be foolish to discount.
Mateer hasn’t earned anything in his home yet, other than a new nickname.
“The ultimate SEC wild card.”
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
