Notre Dame is the biggest threat to the SEC’s playoff hopes

Have you ever played musical chairs?

It’s a simple game, where chairs are placed in a circle. Players walk around the chairs while the music plays, and when it stops, they sit down in the first open chair they can reach.

College football is kind of like that these days.

There are four open spots in the College Football Playoff, and right now, there are around 10-12 schools that are walking around, hoping for a place to sit when the music, er, season stops.

In musical chairs, the biggest and fastest kids have the edge. They can box out other kids and claim seats more easily.

Then, there are the smart kids. The ones that stay away from the bullies and claim a seat ahead of the smallest and slowest kids.

Then, there are kids that are just playing so that the biggest and fastest kids’ parents don’t scold them for leaving them out. Plus, you need some numbers to make the game fun.

Let’s carry the analogy a bit farther:

BIGGEST AND FASTEST

Clemson (10-0) — Unless it trips up against Wake Forest, South Carolina or likely North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, Clemson will get a chair.

Alabama (9-1) — The Crimson Tide still have some work to do against Charleston Southern (I don’t want Nick Saban yelling at me), Auburn and Florida in the SEC Championship Game. But, assuming they nudge those kids out of the way, Alabama will also have a chair.

Ohio State/Iowa (both 10-0) — Both of these Big Ten teams have spent the season picking on small kids. But both will see better competition in the weeks ahead. Ohio State must navigate Michigan State and a trip to Michigan before facing Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Iowa’s road is easier as it hosts Purdue and visits Nebraska before squaring off with either Ohio State, Michigan State or Michigan. If either team is unbeaten after the conference title game, it will get a seat.

Oklahoma State (10-0) — Think of the Cowboys as a big kid that just moved into town. Nobody knows him all that well, but he’s three inches taller than he should be. Oklahoma State will have to beat Baylor and Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks, but if it does, a 12-0 Big 12 champion is going to get in — especially after last year.

THE SMART KIDS

Well, that’s it. There are only four chairs and all those big kids, right?

Nope. Not quite.

There is a lot of tripping and falling down in this game. Big kids bump into each other and go sprawling onto the floor. Then, the smart kids jump into the open chair.

Who are they?

Notre Dame (9-1)— This is a massive kid, who happened to run into another big kid (Clemson), knocking them off-stride a bit. If the Irish beat Boston College at Fenway and survive a trip to Stanford, an 11-1 Irish team will be pretty close to a chair.

Florida (9-1) — Another massive kid who bumped into a bigger kid (LSU) that has since slowed down a bit and is only half-heartedly circling the chairs. If the Gators knock off Florida Atlantic, Florida State and, say, Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, the Gators will also be near a seat.

Oklahoma (9-1) — The Sooners got cocky, walked too close to puny Texas and tripped over its own feet, busting its nose on the floor. They’ve since gotten up and started throwing elbows trying to get the inside track on a chair. They have to beat banged-up TCU at home this week and then survive a trip to Oklahoma State in the finale. If they do, the fight for that last seat will be epic.

Baylor (8-1)/Michigan State (9-1) — Both can play their way into the discussion in the final weeks and are worth keeping an eye on.

THE REST

Stanford, Michigan, Utah, Florida State, LSU and maybe a few others are still in the room, but it would take a fire alarm-type situation to get them back close to a seat.

THE SEC NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

Say Florida doesn’t lose again, beating Alabama in the SEC title game. Then imagine Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Oklahoma winning out.

Then you get this:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. ?
4. ?

It would be hard to include two-loss Alabama in an argument with Florida (who would have beaten them in this scenario), Notre Dame and Oklahoma, so the Tide would be left without a chair.

Then, it would be down to Notre Dame, Florida and OU.

Notre Dame would have the best loss, a 2-point setback at top-ranked Clemson in a monsoon, and a schedule full of so-so wins. Every Pac-12 team has two losses, so it likely won’t be represented in the playoff. However, if things keep going the way they are, Notre Dame could deny yet another Power 5 team a spot. Could that team be from the SEC?

Florida would have a decent loss (assuming LSU can course correct in the last two weeks) and few good wins (Florida State, Ole Miss and Alabama).

Oklahoma would have that awful loss to Texas and three strong wins (TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State) to close the schedule.

How the committee would parse through these teams is anyone’s guess, but a compelling case could be made for each if it indeed plays out this way.

And the possibility exists, slim as it may be, that no SEC team will have a chair when the music stops playing.

Randy Capps

Randy Capps is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football, South Carolina and Georgia.