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Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff? Breaking down the betting odds

Published: Jul 21, 2024 · 11:00 AM EDT

Notre Dame has made progress in the Marcus Freeman era, but the Fighting Irish are entering the 2024 season with firm College Football Playoff expectations.

This will be Freeman’s third season as Notre Dame’s head coach. Overall, Notre Dame is 19-7 in Freeman’s first 2 seasons. The Irish were 10-3 last season after winning their bowl game. Looking ahead to this fall, Notre Dame is favored to make the College Football Playoff according to most sports betting apps.

DraftKings has the best price for Notre Dame to reach the Playoff at -165. If you want to bet against Notre Dame reaching the expanded Playoff, the most favorable odds come from bet365 at +140.

Let’s take a look at Notre Dame’s returning production and schedule to get a better idea of its College Football Playoff chances in 2024:

Notre Dame’s 2024 roster and returning production

The biggest change for Notre Dame in 2024 will be on offense. Former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard was brought in as a high-profile transfer. Notre Dame also hired Mike Denbrock from LSU to be its offensive coordinator after Gerad Parker left to become Troy’s head coach. This will be Denbrock’s third stint at Notre Dame, and his stock might be at an all-time high after he called plays for 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels last season.

Sam Hartman was good as Notre Dame’s quarterback last season, but Leonard has a bit more upside — and risk. At Duke, Leonard excelled as as a passer and as a runner, but he also missed significant time due to injury. Those injury concerns have followed him to South Bend, as he missed time in the spring after undergoing a procedure on his ankle.

If Leonard is healthy and back at 100%, he has the potential to help Notre Dame get to — and advance in — the College Football Playoff. If he has to miss time, it’s worth noting that Notre Dame has options. Steve Angeli, Kenny Minchey and CJ Carr are all former blue-chip prospects who will be competing for the backup job.

Elsewhere on offense, Notre Dame does have some question marks at wide receiver after losing Rico Flores Jr. to UCLA via the portal this offseason. However, players like Jayden Thomas, Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison are all back and should be impactful in that room. Notre Dame also added Kris Mitchell and Beaux Collins via the transfer portal this offseason.

The bigger questions will be on the offensive line, where Notre Dame has to replace its top 2 tackles after Joe Alt and Blake Fisher turned pro. Overall, Notre Dame returns just 52% of its weighted offensive production on offense this season, per SP+. That ranks just 94th nationally.

The story isn’t any better on defense, as the Fighting Irish are also 94th in the nation in weighted defensive returning production. However, Notre Dame does return some big names — Howard Cross III, Rylie Mills, Jack Kiser, Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts, to name a few. Defensive lineman RJ Oben (Duke) and defensive back Jordan Clark (Arizona State) are 2 possible impact transfers.

Despite the overall lack of returning production, there’s plenty of reason to believe Notre Dame will be solid on that end again in 2024. The Fighting Irish have recruited very well under Freeman and Al Golden has been tremendous as Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator.

Notre Dame’s schedule

Notre Dame’s 2024 schedule starts with a very difficult matchup at Texas A&M, but that might be the Irish’s toughest game during its regular-season slate. Louisville and Florida State visit the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium, and there aren’t any tricky road games (at least on paper) until Thanksgiving weekend when the Irish travel to face USC.

Here’s a full look at Notre Dame’s 2024 schedule:

Aug. 31: at Texas A&M
Sept. 7: Northern Illinois
Sept. 14: at Purdue
Sept. 21: Miami (Ohio)
Sept. 28: Louisville
Oct. 12: Stanford
Oct. 19: at Georgia Tech
Oct. 26: Navy (neutral site game in East Rutherford, New Jersey)
Nov. 9: Florida State
Nov. 16: Virginia
Nov. 23: Army (neutral site game in Bronx, New York)
Nov. 30: at USC

Notre Dame drew a relatively easy slate of ACC opponents this year: Florida State, Louisville, Stanford, Georgia Tech and Virginia. The Seminoles and Cardinals are ACC contenders, but the other 3 teams on that list might fall short of bowl eligibility.

Overall, Notre Dame’s strength-of-schedule for 2024 ranks 55th nationally as of this summer, per ESPN’s FPI ratings.

Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame’s mediocre schedule is both a blessing and a curse. Although the relatively easy slate could help the Irish rack up wins, they will almost certainly need to win at least 10 games in order to reach the College Football Playoff — and might need to get to 11, depending on how the season plays out. That’s a tough task for a team that ranks outside the top 90 in weighted returning production.

While Freeman has met expectations overall through his 2 years as a head coach, it hasn’t come without some growing pains. Notre Dame dropped games to Marshall and Stanford in 2022. Last season, the Fighting Irish lost to Ohio State after they put only 10 defensive players on the field for a key goal-line stand at the end of the game. They lost road games at Louisville and Clemson later in the year as well.

Counting on Notre Dame to put it all together in a season where it will be relying on another new quarterback and a lot of unproven talent is a big risk. There’s also Leonard’s health, which is a major concern. He’s expected to be fully healthy during fall camp, but Notre Dame’s 2024 outlook will change in a hurry if he has to miss any time.

PICK: Notre Dame to miss the College Football Playoff (+140 on bet365)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.