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Will Tennessee make the College Football Playoff in 2024? Breaking down the betting odds

By Spenser Davis

Published: Aug 1, 2024 · 8:19 PM EDT

Tennessee is entering the 2024 season with expectations of competing for a College Football Playoff berth.

With the CFP set to expand to 12 teams, the path to the Playoff has never been wider for a program like Tennessee. The Vols have been formidable over the past 2 seasons under Josh Heupel, but were unable to break through under the old 4-team Playoff model.

That could change as soon as this season. Tennessee is +190 to make the College Football Playoff over at Caesars, meaning the Vols are a strong contender to reach the Playoff in 2024. On the other hand, if you’re interested in fading Tennessee, DraftKings currently has the Vols at -225 to miss the CFP.

Here’s a look at Tennessee’s roster and schedule for 2024 to help determine if it makes sense to bet on — or against — Tennessee to reach the CFP this season:

Tennessee’s roster and returning production

There are quite a few new faces at Tennessee this season. The Vols lost quarterback Joe Milton, running back Jaylen Wright, receiver Ramel Keyton, defensive back Kamal Hadden, defensive back Jaylen McCullough, linebacker Elijah Herring, linebacker Aaron Beasley, defensive back Wesley Walker, defensive back Gabe Jeudy-Lally and defensive back Tamarion McDonald off of last year’s team.

Those departures include Tennessee’s starting quarterback, leading rusher, second-leading receiver and 6 top tacklers from last season. All of that translates to Tennessee ranking 108th nationally in ESPN’s weighted returning production metric.

That doesn’t bode well for a Tennessee program that is hoping to take a step forward from last year’s 8-win regular season — not backward.

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Much rests on the shoulders of former 5-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be stepping into the starting role this fall. Although Tennessee lost Milton’s production, there’s legitimate reason to believe that Iamaleava could be an upgrade — if not a significant one — over Milton.

There are questions about who will replace Wright in the backfield, but the Vols have recruited well at running back and do have some promising options. At receiver, Squirrel White and Bru McCoy are both back this fall. Tennessee also added transfer receiver Chris Brazzell II after he totaled 711 yards last year for Tulane. There’s also 5-star receiver Mike Matthews, who figures to have some type of role in the Vols’ offense this year. On the offense line, Tennessee returns 4 contributors from last season and added an elite talent in Lance Heard out of the portal to man the left tackle position.

Defensively, Tennessee possesses an elite defensive line that’s headlined by James Pearce Jr. However, outside of that front, the Vols will be counting on a lot of unproven players at the second and third levels of their defense. Keenan Pili, Arion Carter, Rickey Gibson III, Jourdan Thomas and Boo Carter are some of the players who will be asked to fill big roles this fall. Tennessee also supplemented its defense with transfer additions like cornerback Jermod McCoy and safety Jakobe Thomas.

Tennessee’s 2024 schedule

With the additions of Texas and Oklahoma, every SEC team will have a new-look schedule in 2024. Tennessee will notably face off against the Sooners this season in a matchup that figures to be emotional for both sides. That game on Sept. 21 will be Oklahoma’s first-ever official SEC contest. It will also be Heupel’s first trip back to his alma mater since he was fired as OU’s offensive coordinator following the 2014 season.

With the SEC no longer using a divisional structure, Tennessee will also not face former SEC East foes South Carolina or Missouri this season. However, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt will remain on the Vols’ schedule for 2024.

Here’s a full look at Tennessee’s schedule for this fall:

Aug. 31: Chattanooga
Sept. 7: NC State (neutral-site game in Charlotte)
Sept. 14: Kent State
Sept. 21: at Oklahoma
Oct. 5: at Arkansas
Oct. 12: Florida
Oct. 19: Alabama
Nov. 2: Kentucky
Nov. 9: Mississippi State
Nov. 16: at Georgia
Nov. 23: UTEP
Nov. 30: at Vanderbilt

Tennessee’s slate ranks as the 8th-toughest strength-of-schedule nationally, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Vols play multiple teams with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations and will face one of the ACC’s toughest teams in NC State in Week 2.

Will Tennessee make the College Football Playoff?

Tennessee has an interesting profile this season, given its high-level talent mixed with its overall lack of experience. The Vols would have made the 12-team Playoff in 2022 and likely would have pushed for a spot in 2023 if they had better quarterback play. But looking ahead to this season, there are enough question marks that it’s fair to wonder about Tennessee’s upside in 2024.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is bullish on the Vols. That model gives Tennessee 36.9% chance to make the Playoff. Based on Caesars’ +190 price tag, that translates to an expected value of a little more than $7 on a $100 wager.

However, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model over at ESPN is much less optimistic about Tennessee’s Playoff odds, likely due to it ranking outside the top-100 in returning production. SP+ gives Tennessee just a 23.4% chance to win 10 regular-season games — the estimated benchmark that Tennessee would need to clear in order to make it into the 12-team field.

By the same logic, that would mean SP+ is projecting a 76.6% chance that Tennessee misses the Playoff. That’s an expected value of $10.64 on a $100 wager.

Ultimately, I think Tennessee has the upside to have a special season in 2024. Iamaleava and an improved wide receiver corps could do wonders for a team that already has one of the sport’s best pass rushers in Pearce. But there’s enough reasons to be skeptical that I’d lean toward Tennessee missing the Playoff in 2024.

PICK: Tennessee to miss the College Football Playoff (-225 via DraftKings).

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.