Betting Stuff: Best bets for the 2024 NBA Draft

Published: Jun 25, 2024 · 4:59 PM EDT

Betting on this 2024 NBA Draft is risky business. There is very little consensus at the top of the draft, and no real star that jumps off the page.

At the time of publication, no one seems to know what the Atlanta Hawks will do with the No. 1 overall pick. They could trade it to a number of teams. They could draft Zaccharie Risacher, who has become the odds-on favorite to go first at every major sportsbook. They could draft Alex Sarr, who was the presumptive top pick for months but has reportedly refused to work out for the Hawks. They could draft UConn big man Donovan Clingan!

Clingan could go No. 1 or he could fall out of the top 5.

In what feels like a great summation of this class, FanDuel is currently offering +210 odds on the exact order of the top 4 being Risacher, Sarr, Reed Sheppard, and Stephon Castle. That’s an implied probability of 32.3% on a top 4 order that matches what is projected by ESPN, The Athletic, and Bleacher Report.

In a weak class, there’s very little clarity atop the board. Nevertheless, here’s an attempt to cut through some of the noise and find some value in the first round.

Eighth overall pick to be Rob Dillingham (+550 via DraftKings)

I wrote about Dillingham as this year’s lottery enigma at length on Monday, and between then and now, the odds of him being the eighth overall pick in the draft (currently San Antonio) have gone from +850 to +550.

Dillingham makes a ton of sense for San Antonio. And that’s true even if the Spurs use their first of 2 picks in the lottery on UConn guard Stephon Castle. Castle and Dillingham could coexist in a backcourt together. Dillingham’s offensive repertoire provides the Spurs with something they currently lack, and his defensive shortcomings could be hidden within the Spurs system.

In the aforementioned piece, I wrote that Dillingham could slip out of the top 10 if San Antonio doesn’t take him at No. 8. I might even consider hedging this by laying the over on Dillingham’s draft position (11.5, +105 odds) at ESPN Bet. Miami at No. 15 has been mentioned. Perhaps a trade could be had in the 12-14 range for a team that wants to move up to grab him. But I think he’s the guy for San Antonio at No. 8 and I’m not alone.

ESPN’s Jonathan Givony has Dillingham mocked to the Spurs at No. 8 in his latest projections.

Under 7.5 for Dalton Knecht’s draft position (-130 via ESPN Bet)

Knecht, according to Givony, has seen his range shrink as the draft has drawn near. The 4-9 range appears to be a likely spot for him. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie has Knecht going sixth to the Charlotte Hornets, as does Givony. He makes sense for the Portland Trail Blazers at No. 7 as well.

Knecht checks a ton of boxes. He’s not the same player, but he reminds me a bit of Jaime Jaquez Jr. — an All-Rookie selection this past season— in that he’s an older player who knows what he is and can provide a clear role for a team immediately. Knecht isn’t the best defender but he tries, and he showed improvement on that end at Tennessee last year, which is a plus. He’s a 3-level scorer with good athleticism, playmaking ability, and size.

Look at what one Western Conference executive told The Athletic’s David Aldridge about Knecht:

Look at his improvement arc. Nobody wanted him coming out of high school. Goes to juco. Goes to Northern Colorado. This guy was coming off the bench for Northern Colorado. Then transfers up, which a lot of guys have a problem with, against stiffer competition. And he kills it from Day 1 in the SEC. The team gets to the final eight. I don’t know why he won’t come into the NBA and be able to score.

When that’s the kind of narrative around a player, expect him to go off the board earlier than you’d otherwise think. And in a historically weak draft, a strong role player is a great thing to come away with. He makes a great deal of sense for Charlotte as a wing who can create space for LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

Adem Bona to be drafted in the first round (+300 via DraftKings)

Bona had a good combine performance and has reportedly done well during the interview portions of the pre-draft process. He’s a modern NBA big who was miscast by a plodding, old-school UCLA team. With a 9-foot standing reach, near-7-4 wingspan, and great athleticism, Bona can play the center as a rim-running shot-blocker. He got a ton of post-ups at UCLA last season, but will be more of a clean-up man on offense in the NBA. Teams will be drafting him for his defense, which he provides at a high level.

According to Givony, Bona has conducted 18 workouts for teams and has several suitors in the 20s after impressing in private workouts. There’s quite a bit of smoke here about a first-round pick for Bona.

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.